True that McCain was front-runner in between elections but they dropped him like he was hot when Giuliani started sniffing around. Giuliani was the clear front-runner nationally from the time he started considering a run to shortly before the Iowa caucus around the time he started looking like a loser and Fred Thompson came in. He had it for a while until Romney stepped up around time for Iowa and was nearly deposed by Huckabee. IIRC McCain was never front-runner (or even close to it) in 2007 and was only finally regarded to be a serious contender for the nomination after all other candidates had come up wanting and he had a surprise NH victory. Until that time he was enjoying Perry/Huntsman-esque, brutally low numbers in the polls. He sucked up to the right (as A3PO said above), losing his "maverick" cred and losing his appeal to moderate R's and his "base," (his quotes) the media. Before and directly following Iowa he was in like 5th place behind Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and Huckabee. The effect of him coming from behind in NH was much like Santorum's surprise showing in Iowa. In other words, it was at that point that unexpected. This is all from memory btw, so I quite likely have some of my facts/dates wrong. But this is how I recall it went down and I followed it pretty closely at the time.
I think he made a pretty big tactical error defining himself as the sane guy in the bunch, the only one that unapologetically believed in evolution and climate change, which fed into the narrative of him being a liberal that already existed according to his participation in the Obama administration. He had a great, great argument for being the unequivocally most conservative candidate in the field (see: George Will and the guy that runs Red State for eloquent explanations of this). Plus, he's the only one that's made a lot of conservative ideas work. And he provided health care to Utah without a mandate. Why would he run to the left of the field? I guess his calculus was that there had to be around 20% of the GOP electorate that was still sane, which market he would have had all to himself, but there aren't that many sane voters on that side anymore. He screwed up. If he'd run to the right, where his record serves him much better, I imagine he probably would have won the nomination. And there is no doubt that going into the primaries Huntsman was the candidate that Obama most feared.
Also, like Romney, he comes off as kind of weird. Speaking Mandarin in debates, making obscure Kurt Cobain jokes that no one gets in debates, invariably speaking to the public in the sing-songy, soporific voice of an elementary school teacher. He's not 'dog strapped on top of car for cross-country trip' weird and he's not 'making a joke that a waitress pinched his rear' weird, but he turns out to be more awkward than anticipated. His demeanor hasn't helped him on the national stage, in debates at least. He also seems to have a time management problem. Sometimes he just seems to be marking time, in debates or interviews, when he actually has a really good answer at the ready. I remember him being asked why he'd be a good commander in chief in Friday night's debate and he filibustered. I was like, what??? He has the best foreign policy credentials of anyone up there and it's not even close. Like nobody even comes in second on that qualification. It's him way up at the top and then everyone else comes in tied for dead last. And he dodged it. Then at the last minute he kind of snuck the tiniest mention that he had international credentials. He has good arguments, particularly to appeal to conservative Republicans, but he repeatedly fails to make them.
Sheldon Adelson, a billionaire casino owner in Las Vegas who has long supported Mr. Gingrich, dropped $5 million in pro Newt Super Pac money. Newt is really going scorched earth kamikaze on this one. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_evS-T-c35M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Excuse my ignorance, as I have barely been following these primaries, but what are Huntsman's warts? He sounds very reasonable and very electable from the little I've heard from him. He worked for Obama. You must oppose and obstruct everything Obama ever does to be a true Republican.
The clip of the Bain documentary looks like something Michael Moore would put together, not people supporting a Conservative candidate who is on the record for being anti-welfare and anti-unemployment. The world suddenly feels upside down.
I get that you were being "funny" but his electability issues stem from: 1) He's more Romney than Romney. That's a problem for him because Romney already has trouble because he's too Romney. 2) He comes across like a sleeze. I like Huntsman a lot on a lot of things, but he is sleezy as all get out when he's in these debates. I think he tries to act like he has a lot of gravitas with his pauses and his overly emotional answers (references to family members and stuff) but it just comes across used car salesman like. 3) Money money money money. How's he going to get money when the people who would support him already support Romney? Also, as for John McCain being the frontrunner the last time around, the more I've thought about that the more I think it is totally bunk. All of the political talk going into that election was Clinton vs Guillani. Romney was seen as the other horse in the race because of his money and how "presidential" he seemed. Then Fred Thompson was seen as the "true conservative" who might jump in. John McCain was a total underdog.
I think this is spot on Batman. Wish I had seen this post. I've been giving it a lot of thought and ran some google searches and I don't just see that McCain was ever a front runner.
I think McCain was the frontrunner waaaaaaaaaaaay early before anyone was actually running - like just after 2004 when then speculation started about 2008. At that point, I think McCain was assumed to be the main guy. But he was never that way once the actual campaign got under way. Sort of like Palin was a frontrunner in 2009.
Ok this may be accurate. Still think it's intellectually dishonest to look back on that campaign season and call him the front runner.
Oh absolutely - I agree with you. Just pointing out where I think the memory of him being a frontrunner comes from when looking back at it now.
You know what's funny, looking back... Romney was the "conservative alternative" to John McCain (lol) and I remember after the campaign a lot of conservatives whining about why they picked McCain over Romney. People like Laura Ingraham (vomit) and Rush were all chastising the Republican base for not picking Romney and calling McCain the "establishment" guy. As it turned out, Romney got hurt by Huckster staying in the race and not allowing it to become a two man deal between Romnster and Johnny Mac. Today, Romney is the "establishment" guy (lol) and you have a lot of conservatives whining about not picking the conservative alternatives and being stuck with Romney. In the end he is likely to be helped in the primary by the fact that people won't get out of the race and allow it to become a two man deal.
Exactly. And same thing was true with Hillary/Obama. Hillary was the establishment person while the progressive base wanted something different. Obama needed the field to shrink to Hillary vs anti-Hillary, and fortunately (for Obama supporters), Edwards did drop out early enough to make that happen. My hope for this race is for Huntsman to overperform today to create doubts about Romney, and then lots of people to drop out after SC, leading the GOP to nominate one of the crazy anti-Romneys. And opening the door for Huntsman in 2016, if the GOP rubberbands back to the common sense moderate after the crazy conservative gets obliterated. I actually would love to see Huntsman as President with a Democratic Congress - unfortunately, that's not possible in 2012. I think that combo could accomplish a lot of good things.
i hate posting about individual posters but i remember when basso followed the train lock step and key. i remember when he posted an op ed basically saying america didn't deserve fred thompson the hadn't seen rudy in drag yet
That captures what I was thinking. But he lost his cred (and position) by the time things really got started.
Paul took second over Huntsman. I don't get what he sees as his way forward if he continues. (Huntsman that is)
