I believe that he would have the highest initial vote to never get in, and only the second to get over 50% and not eventually make it (Gil Hodges being the only one).
He'll make it. The jump this year was pretty big; more importantly, it felt like the tide turned with some of the bigger names in baseball. Verducci, for instance, voted for him this year. As SI's primary baseball writer, his status carries incredible weight and lends Bagwell's campaign significant credibility. Also, when the "confirmed" users hit the ballot next year - Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, etc. - I think it's going to force people to properly reevaluate Bagwell. Evidence-wise, he's nowhere near their level of guilt; not even in the same stratosphere. As such, I would think it's going to be hard to continue the Bagwell witchhunt when you have a gaggle of actual witches in hand, so to speak.
So you think it's just a fluke that a number of players who were identified to have used steroids had career and historic seasons right at the time of use? It just happened to be random luck that when players like Caminiti used steroids, they had seasons unlike any of their others? Or that one testing started, offensive numbers immediately reverted back to historical norms?
I hope that's the case. I just have a really bad feeling about it. I fear he's going to get wrongly lumped in with that group and his campaign will lose traction, rather than gain, as time goes on.
We're obviously dealing with a gaggle of self-righteous goofballs, so anything's possible. I just have a hard time believing they'll continue to paint Bagwell as "presumed guilty" when we'll actually have "guilty" players on the ballot. Seems wildly disingenuous.
juice, I think you're dead wrong about Bags. First of all, "Speed" refers to baserunning speed, and Bags most certainly had that tool. It's not about how fast your 40 is but how well you navigate the bases. You can't deny this from Bagwell. The five tools are: -- hit for average -- hit for power -- baserunning -- fielding the ball -- throw the ball So, saying that defense isn't a tool is incorrect in every regard. There are actually two tools regarding defense. If there is such a thing as a five-tool player, Jeff Bagwell is it.
The 5 tools usually reference the physical tools, not the mental ones. He is as close as a 1B comes, but I don't think anyone has ever considered a 1B as a 5-tool player.
again juice, the 5 tools are plainly average, power, baserunning, fielding, and throwing. "Mental" or "physical" is a non-issue. And yes, 1B have been 5-tool players. *Any* position player can be a five-tool player. It's not about where they play, but whether they have all 5 tools. Concerning 1B, Lou Gehrig and Jeff Bagwell say, "hi".
He "might" make it if it comes down to him and a lessor player or a bigger PED offender. And please this isn't a debate on whether Bagwell was or was not a PED user - the perception exists and that isn't going away anytime soon. So let's look at the new guys coming next year: Bonds (bigger PED offender) Clemens (bigger PED offender) Piazza (NYer/LAer - gets in 1st round) Sosa (bigger PED offender) Shilling (close - but I think he'll have to wait) Biggio (gets in 1st round despite being an Astro) Lofton (close but pass) Wells (close because of connections but pass) Finley (pass) Sanders (pass) Walker (pass) Lieberthal (pass) Klesco (not this time) Wilson (pass) Cirillo (pass) Green (not this time) Franco (not this time) Connie (not this time) and quite a few lessor players So for 2013 I'm seeing Biggio and Piazza. Maybe someone else (like Smith) but I don't think Bags makes it. 2014-16 is loaded. Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Frank Thomas, Griffey Jr are all 1st timers IMO but they also come with some pretty nice group of 2nd tier players like Trevor Hoffman, Carlos Degado, Pettitte, Normar. And quite a few also close but doubtful players like Edmonds, Alou, Mussina, Sheffield, Wagner. So I think there are plenty to chose from during those years. Over time, he might get the nod. Again I think it depends on the class he's up against. I think Mattingly gets in sooner or later (because he is almost Mr NY) and possibly Raines. There might be a "dead" period where it's either Bags, McGwire, Clemens or Bonds. At that point, I think they give it to him. But I'm afraid if that point doesn't come, his name will appear in the also rans.
It's a freaking travesty that he's not already in. The only explanation I can see is bias. His numbers line up more than favorably with 1B already in the hall, and he was the best 1B of his time. He played the whole game at an elite level for an extended period of time. It's just stupid as hell. Stupid. And I'll tell any of these so-called experts that to their face.
I hate this statement. This statement implies that there are Astros who should have been 1st ballot guys that didn't get in. If Jeff Bagwell got in on the first ballot, he'd be the only 1st baseman in history to get in without 500 homeruns on the first ballot and he'd join a list of like 2-3 position players in the modern era that got in without having either 500 homeruns or 3000 hits on the first ballot. The way the balloting has always been done, Bagwell being an Astro is not why he hasn't made the HOF. This alleged "bias" in HOF voting simply doesn't exist. Especially when 2 of the first ballot guys who most people point to as weak HOFs are Kirby Puckett (Minnesota) and Ozzie Smith (St. Louis.) The Baseball HOF has it's weird and stupid quirks in how they elect people and what standards they use, but no Astro player has been denied election on the mere premise that they are an Astro.
It's not a travesty. He'll get in eventually. I'd like to see you list the HOF 1st basemen that you think he compares with and see what ballot they got in on. HOF voting is not hard to understand. You hit a magic number you go in for sure. (500 HR in the past, 3000 hits, 300 wins) Bagwell didn't do that. If you don't get a magic number it takes time for enough writers who didn't follow your career to come around to voting for a guy. Add to that the contingent who never vote for a guy on the 1st ballot (stupid, yes I know). The baseball HOF is a slow process, but it's the most meaningful HOF in American sports largely because of that.
justtxyank - Hey I've been an Astro fan from way back - not as far as the Rockets but mid-80s (Mike Scott/Nolan Ryan/ era). I think there is a media bias against the Astros that hurts our voting. I could be wrong, but I don't think they give Astro's the same pass on some players stats like they do other teams. You have to have the stats that can't be denied or you will be on the waiting list.
Why do we care? I've been told it's stupid to worry about what the national media thinks of our teams and players.
Please give me an example of an Astro player who was denied the Hall of Fame on the first ballot and then give me a similar player who got in on the 1st ballot from another team. Demonstrate this alleged bias please.
I do not think that it is Houston specific... but I can tell you this, if Bagwell wore a Yankees or Red Sox jersey he would be in the Hall of Fame right now. A far greater number of people and media members would have seen Bagwell on a more consistent basis and would appreciate how good he is. As for the bias agrument, if Frank Thomas gets in on the first ballot, then the point will be proven for the "Err they hate Houston" crowd.
Please point me to a Yankee or Red Sox player that got in the HOF faster than Bagwell that you consider to be on his level. This bias claim is ridiculous unless you can validate it. Thurman Munson and Don Mattingly are two of the most beloved Yankees of all time and neither is in the HOF. Jim Rice is a player that the Red Sox media has been trumpeting as a HOF for years for some god forsaken reason and it took YEARS to finally get him elected. Please, prove this bias. Tell me a comparable player to Bagwell who got in faster because he was a Yankee or Red Sox. Frank Thomas hit the 500 homerun plateau. That is a historical achievement that Bagwell never got to. (I don't think Thomas will actually get in on the first ballot, but the point remains. He'll be hampered by the DH thing imo) Edit: Like I said, the two first ballot HOF guys who are questionable played in Minnesota and St. Louis. Far cry from Boston and New York.
Nook is stating my basis for my paranoia. I do think that Yankees, Sox, Reds, Cubs, Giants etc players are given some extra points. Some may be tied to post season or better in the clutch. You will have to see when/if Bagwell gets in to really prove the point but Willie Stargell was a 1st election and had stats similar to or less the Jeff.
