With a salary cap of $58 million, and a max salary in the type of player we want to attract being $16.3 million (i.e. Dwight), we need to have no more than $41.7 million in committed salaries, plus cap holds and minimum salary slots for 12 players. To keep 1) Lowry; 2) Martin; 3) Scola; 4) Patterson; 5) Morris; 6) CBud; 7) Parsons; 8) Courtney Lee cap hold ($5.5 million); 9) DMo's cap slot value; 10) NY Knicks draft pick; and 11) 12) minimum salaries, plus the $1.5 million owing to Dalembert if he is waived, I count roughly $44 million in commitments. If my math is correct (and it is rough), we not only can't pick up any options for the 2009 draft bust collection, but we need to shed roughly $2.5 million in commitments, just to sign a max player. Help me out if I'm missing something or my calculations are off.
I'm probably going to do another salary cap updated once the rookie option exercise deadline passes. Also, due to the carryover of the old "105% rule" to the new CBA, the Rockets would actually need to clear about $19 million to sign Dwight Howard to "his" max outright. Deron Williams's max would be the $16.3 million figure, though.
Yes. That is why, if Dalembert doesn't have a good 2011-12 season, I think you'll see the Rockets trade him in a draft day deal. They can either include him as salary filler in a package for a quality high-salaried player or dump him (plus cash to cover the $1.5M guarantee and then some) to open up that extra $1.5M in cap room. Of course, if Dalembert plays well enough this season, the Rockets might just keep him and pay his full $6.7M salary in 2012-13. In that scenario, they'd be able to easily trade him later if they needed to open up room to sign a big name free agent.
This is well put together and very clear. My initial thought is that the Rockets should really be looking to move Martin then. Firstly, the guy has the largest contract on the team but is not producing up to his contract right now, and he has thus become quite replaceable even if the Rockets only replaced him with players on the roster right now (Lee, Chase, Dragic). Thus, if the rockets can move him for cap space and a draft pick occurring potentially 2 or 3 seasons down the line, it could actually really end up helping the team pursue a top level free agent.
Can't wait to see the update, your articles (and posts) are the best thing going. One question - could a team other than Orlando offer Dwight the $19 million, either 1) as a straight free agent signing, or 2) in a sign and trade? We keep hearing you cannot get a better contract in a sign and trade under the new CBA, but there is always an exception to the general rule, and perhaps Dwight is the exception? My first hunch would be that a new team would not be allowed to offer 5% more than the last deal, if the amount is more than the max. Analogous to the loss of Bird rights. But I'm too lazy to search for and read the new CBA. And if a team such as New Jersey can only offer Dwight four years starting at $16.3 million, where Orlando can offer five years starting at $19 million, this is huge leverage for them to roll the dice, call his bluff, and not trade him. That, combined with the fact that Florida does not have a state income tax (as Deron Williams recently commented about being an 8% salary swing). Adidas would have to come up with a mega contract offer to get Dwight to leave and go to the megamarket of its choosing, to make up for that net income swing.
I agree completely, this seems to be most probable track if Morey is truly hoarding cap space for next summer to show up at Dwight's doorstep at 12:00 a.m. July 1st, with IPAD in hand. We keep hearing rumblings that he is saving cap room for next summer, and I just don't see it being for Deron Williams, given that he already has a more cost-effective PG in Lowry. One that is the centerpiece of his portfolio of reasonably priced assets. And Courtney Lee as the starting SG, instead of Martin, might be part of the sales pitch on the IPAD. Perhaps we might see Martin traded to Minnesota at the request of his old coach, in a package for a young asset, plus salary cap fodder (such as Martell Webster's expiring contract)? And I'm not fantasing about trading for KLove or Rubio, who are untradeable. I would guess Minny might be in the market for a veteran, especially since the Hornets own their first round pick this year. Khan is probably under pressure to win now and make that pick be outside of the lottery. If Morey moves Martin, this may create the summer cap space to exercise the option on TWill, and still keep open the master plan of making the sales pitch to Dwight next summer. Of course, Morey will have to exercise that option prior to trading Martin (since NBA trades never happen in January), so it is a gamble. But I'm just not convinced he is ready to admit he made a mistake on the TWill trade and let that asset walk for nothing, especially if he thinks TWill has trade value. Or maybe he picks up the option, but then moves TWill in a deal on March 15th.
Under the "105% rule", ANY team can offer a "super-max" guy (i.e., a player who previously made above the max salary) up to 105% of his salary in the previous year, regardless of what the max salary otherwise would be for him. So, anyone with the cap room could offer Howard the $19M figure. Orlando's advantage is that they can offer Howard a five-year deal with 7.5% annual raises. No other team (including any team acquiring Howard from Orlando in a S&T) can offer better than four years with 4.5% annual raises.
Thanks for the clarification, so I guess it doesn't look like Orlando has as much leverage, other than lack of a Florida income tax. Which Adidas will supposedly mitigate with a Rose-style deal. I suppose Morey can wait until deadline day to see if Dwight is being traded. If Orlando does not trade him, then Morey can dump some salaries at the last minute to go all in on the summer recruiting trip. Back to the original topic, barring TWill falling out of the rotation or falling into a major pout, I think Morey will exercise his option. I think his main reasoning will be that TWill's option price for next year will be less than his value on the open market, and as such, would be an asset. I remember him stating after the 2010 season words to the effect that they would pick up Chuck's option because he would be underpaid at the option price. He probably would think he could flip TWill at the trade deadline or in the summer for a pick. As for Hill, I have serious doubts that he is worth the option price on the open market, and as such, I believe Morey will pass.
In your situation above, I think Morey would be able to wait until the draft to make those moves. No need to give up on the playoffs this year when you can compete and THEN stil get value after the season. As I've posted earlier, if you're going to trade Martin, for example, I think you could get a better pick for him at the draft than during this season. On Morey's philosophy on exercising the options, I completely agree. Not sure how he values each player on his own merits, but that's likely how he approaches whether to exercise or not.
