I think Iraq will be fine if graded on the local curve. I think having a democratic process and a reasonable amount of secularity will keep things from boiling over too much. What was it like before Saddam?
Probably becomes an Iranian puppet state with much revolt by sunnis and kurds, maybe a civil war or even an Arab-Persian war, which screws the whole region up. We should have partitioned Iraq into what it already is. 3 seperate countries.
Then you would have these three countries fighting for the oil since all three states wouldn't have it.
This. Though don't underestimate the money that will flow to the Sunni groups from Saudi and other parties with their own interests, causing more blood to spill....best option would have been to install another Sunni dictator, Iraq just isn't ready for "democracy". Good read below.... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA06Ak04.html
What better way to divert Islamist radical bombers away from the US than to let them focus on their own sectarian rivalries? What better way to occupy Iran than to let them get bogged down in an Iraqi civil war against the better funded Saudi proxies? With an embargo killing their oil profits, it will bleed the country; and maybe delay their nuclear ambitions I know it's a cruel and insensitive position, thousands of innocents are going to die. But, it's been going on for 700 years, and try as we might there is no consensus for an allied Iraq. Holding Babylon has always been a matter of force since before Alexander. Democracy requires the will of the people to join together and compromise for the greater good (a lesson for the GOP). Basically Mesopotamia will be the same as it ever was, just with greater firepower.
I voted democracy, but I think it'll actually be something between a democracy and a dictatorship. Something like PRI-era Mexico or modern Russia where there are elections but they are heavily corrupted. I hesitate to call it a dictatorship because it'd still fall short of unfettered rule by a small group of people.
I think it will be a puppet government acting in the interests of the United States, and I think the people of that country will grow to hate us for what we've done and will do there, regardless of our deposition of Sadaam. Our actions will empower Al-Qaeda and other terrorists who use these acts as tools to recruit people in that region to weaken the puppet government we installed there, and perhaps commit more acts of violence in the U.S. or against our allies in Europe.
Ooops! I meant to say that everything will be great in Iraq! Islam will become a failed religion, and Iraq will become a new market for KFC, Walmart, and the various p*rn producers here in the states. They'll also sell us oil on the cheap and gas prices will fall to 99 cents per gallon, and everybody will be happy and pixies and fairies will rain from the sky over Mesopotamia turning the desert into a grand oasis of freedom and opportunity!!!!1!!
Need to watch Peter O'Toole movie to find out.....because the same stuff has been happening in that region for thousands of years. DD
As long as the oil companies can suck oil out of Iraqi ground, the US government will ensure that the leadership which facilitates "relations" remains in place, and they will cross their fingers hoping that's what Iraqis want as well. The US will put responsibility on the government to "control terrorism" which roughly equates to "crush resistance". Should be easy as long as Iraqi and US media are able to collate photos of armed resistance and peaceful protestors together. Some multi-billionaires are being born in Iraq as we speak. They will form the core of "see what a success it was!!". The middle class will grow very slowly while the economy will see a relative boom, and people will not notice at first where the benefits from the growth went. The US has done a stunning job of creating millions of jobs in Iraq. Expansions to graveyards, construction, oil, etc. There will be tons of jobs available, none of which will interest Iraqis of course. There will obviously be reports of Iranian meddling and terrorism, no political conflict is complete without it. In fact, at times, I wonder if the US government actually should alert Iran to potential meddling opportunities, would save everyone a lot of time and wouldn't change anything else. What will ensue is political posturing by the Arab states, Turkey and Iran. American media, allied very closely to the very same business ppl who will swallow Iraq's economic growth, will label everyone who is challenging the corrupt government a terrorist. After all, a peaceful Iraq is a boring Iraq, and thus a less profitable Iraq. It doesn't matter what they do after that, nothing can shed the label of terrorism after the US government has put the label on you. I predict, far after I'm gone at least, a repeat of Egypt and the Egyptian army but with graver consequences. As my Iraqi friend tells me, Iraq has always been at war and will always be at war, American government is just one of the most violent and aggressive participants in those wars.
That's what I wanted to say, I just ramble far mroe than Johndoe804. Minor difference being the people of that country have already grown to hate the US. The country is in ruins and the majority of Sunnis believe the US installed a shiite government as revenge for long time sunni rule. The sad sad disturbing thing is that there is some moral reasoning when you lose infrastructure/lives/etc in return for peace, freedom, sovereignty, etc. Usually those benefits go to future generations, and the current generation is bitter that they sacrificed a lot for something they won't totally receive in their lifetime. In the case of Iraq, nothing was gained. Just switched over from sunni to shiite, and replaced Saddam with a shamocracy, while terrorism is flourishing. Most importantly, Saddam did not cater to Iraqis, and neither will the new government. Naturally the Iranian and Iraqi leadership will slowly befriend each other. That's going to be awkward for the US. Seeing Iran and Iraq getting cozy. After all those Americans died, after all that money was spent, after spending all the money which would've helped the US/World economy, etc.. Obviously, they must throw more lives and money at Iran. They might want to potentially have a nuclear weapon. You can't let **** like that slide. THEY MIGHT KILL A LOT OF PEOPLE!!
