[Hollinger] Budinger a breakout star?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-111228/2011-12-all-breakout-team


[rquoter]
If you were going to ask me which players were due for a breakout in the coming season, I would look for the following things:

First, I would look for a player who was already effective in whatever minutes he played.

Second, and rather obviously, I would look for youth; not all young players get better, but virtually all players who show dramatic year-to-year improvement are young.

Third, I would look for an increase in playing time, which would augment the perceived effect of the first two factors. Last year, for instance, Kevin Love won Most Improved partly because he actually improved, but mostly because he went from 28.6 minutes a game to 35.8 and so his per-game averages skyrocketed.

Finally, I would look for a player whose recognition was liable to increase dramatically due to factors beyond his control -- for instance, that his team was going to win more than people expected.

In other words, I would look for Ty Lawson.

...

So who made the squad? Along with Lawson, I've narrowed it down to 11 other players ready for a big step forward:

...


Chase Budinger, Houston

I have a bit more misgivings about this one because I don't know he and Kevin Martin can co-exist side-by-side as starting wings; one of them has to guard the opponent's top wing scorer and zero of them are capable of doing so.

Nonetheless, too many other factors are in Budinger's favor. He averaged 14.4 points as a starter after the break a year ago, and he did it while finding much more efficient ways to score. If Budinger makes a decent share of 3s and draws an actual foul once in a while, his high-flying transition game should do the rest. Like a lot of guys on this list, he's a 23-year-old third-year pro and primed for a move up the charts. He also rebounds like crazy for a wing and could average five rips a game this year.
[/rquoter]

His 12 breakout stars were:

Tye Lawson
James Harden
Ryan Anderson
Gerald Henderson
Chase Budinger
Jeff Teague
Marcus Thornton
John Wall
Rodney Stuckey
Tiago Splitter
Jrue Holiday
Danilo Galinari

Hollinger is much more positive on Budinger than most of us (including me). Here was his scouting report on him:

[rquoter]
+ Athletic, high-scoring wing can shoot off screens and finish at basket.

+ Good length but low aggression defensively. Good passer, decent handle.

+ Good leaper, excellent size. Struggles shooting off catch. Mediocre motor.

Budinger overcame a very slow start to finish with numbers that essentially mirrored his rookie campaign. The big surprise was that Budinger shot only 32.5 percent on 3s, a development related to his struggles in catch-and-shoot situations. On the move he was more accurate, but his real strength is at the rim.

Budinger shot 66.7 percent in the basket area, many of them highlight-reel dunks, and did well attacking the cup off curls. His secret was that he got so many of them the easy way -- 75.9 percent of his at-rim baskets were assisted, the most of any perimeter player, with many of them being alley-oops.

Budinger rarely tries in-between shots or uses his size to post up; his repertoire is 3s, long 2s and dunks. His ballhandling numbers were very solid, too, as he ranked 11th among small forwards in pure point rating and had the 10th-lowest turnover rate.

Defensively, Budinger doesn't look like much but his statistics last season were dramatically improved over his rookie campaign -- both his Synergy stats and his on-court vs. off-court differential were very solid, and according to 82games.com opposing small forwards had a 12.7 PER against him. I think those numbers overrate him, but sometimes long defenders are better than they look, and Budinger tends to lay off opponents and let his length and leaping ability do the work. He lacks strength and nobody will confuse him with Bruce Bowen, but if he maintains last season's numbers he's a very solid two-way player.[/rquoter]

 

Yeah, that seems to me like a major overstatement. Budinger has the ability to be a strong rebounder at his position, but statistically he was average relative to other SFs.