Kyle Lowry: Breakout Star in 2012?

RedRedemption · Dec 24, 2011

I like Lowry...
But he's no all-star. West is bloated with PGs.

daywalker02 · Dec 24, 2011

nolimitnp said: ↑

I think he may be trade bait. Why else carry 2 other very capable point guards in Flynn and Dragic?
Click to expand...

You serious?
Flynn and Dragic are nowhere Lowry's level.

Dragic goes to one direction only, is more of a SG
I can't even think of anything to say about Flynn

LCII · Dec 24, 2011

He's probably a Mike Bibby level point guard. Very good yet never selected as an all-star, and your 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team.

daywalker02 · Dec 24, 2011

LCII said: ↑

He's probably a Mike Bibby level point guard. Very good yet never selected as an all-star, and your 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team.
Click to expand...

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/kyle-lowry

NBA Comparison: Tim Hardaway
Click to expand...

Tim Hardaway baby, .....not the racist... the allstar

rocketsfan4 · Dec 24, 2011

This is such an awesome post, and your analysis is spot on. I really enjoyed reading it as it is extremely fair. I was a huge fan of Mo Cheeks, really an amazing defender and extraordinarily unselfish player who had an extremely low turnover rate and never overdribbled, showboated, or took bad shots (he had extraordinary FG% throughout his career and was deadly from midrange, though he often passed up open shots just to get his teammates better involved in the offense). I only remember Cheeks dunking to seal the Sixers championship win against the Lakers. Cheeks gave up many assists be setting the team up and for example having wing players do entry passes, and the Sixers didn't run many pick and rolls relative to some of today's teams, another source of PG assists. Nash and Stockton were also both overlooked for years as backups because their styles were unassuming (especially Stockton). I did not like Stockton because of some of his dirty plays but fully respect his incredible performance and play.

Lowry is well suited to follow in Cheeks footsteps, and I hope that he does. Not to diverge from this post, but I am hoping that the Rockets keep Lin, and that Lin also grows into the Lowry/Cheeks mold, as he is the same type of scrappy unselfish player that they are, and I really hope that he does it with the Rockets instead of another team.
dharocks said: ↑
Point guards are interesting. At pretty much every other position, you'll know if a player is going to be a star within his first few years in the league, but there have been a number of star PGs in the past who were late bloomers. Considering that Lowry will be only 25 years old next year, I thought I might look at some other PGs who were good, but not great through their age 24 seasons, and when their breakout year occurred. Because many of these guys started as backups, I used their per-36 minute numbers.

Keep in mind, I'm not trying to make the argument that Lowry will turn into one of these guys; three of them are Hall of Famers (or Hall of Fame bound) and the other was a 4-time All-Star. The point I'm making is that despite the fact that many are calling 2010-11 Lowry's breakout season, there's a good chance he still has significant room to grow, which I think is exciting. So without further ado:
Code:
[B]Kyle Lowry[/B] ([I]Note: I discarded his rookie year, in which he missed all
but 10 games due to injury[/I])

<table>
<tr>
	<th>[B]Age[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PTS[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]REB[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]AST[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]TOV[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FG%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]3P%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FT%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PER[/B]</th>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>21</td>
	<td>13.6</td>
	<td>4.3</td>
	<td>5.1</td>
	<td>2.2</td>
	<td>.432</td>
	<td>.257</td>
	<td>.698</td>
	<td>14.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>22</td>
	<td>12.5</td>
	<td>4.1</td>
	<td>5.9</td>
	<td>2.5</td>
	<td>.435</td>
	<td>.255</td>
	<td>.801</td>
	<td>14.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>23</td>
	<td>13.5</td>
	<td>5.4</td>
	<td>6.7</td>
	<td>2.5</td>
	<td>.397</td>
	<td>.272</td>
	<td>.827</td>
	<td>15.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>24</td>
	<td>14.2</td>
	<td>4.3</td>
	<td>7.0</td>
	<td>2.2</td>
	<td>.426</td>
	<td>.376</td>
	<td>.765</td>
	<td>16.5</td>
</tr>
</table>
[B]1. Steve Nash[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I])

<table>
<tr>
	<th>[B]Age[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PTS[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]REB[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]AST[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]TOV[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FG%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]3P%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FT%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PER[/B]</th>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>22</td>
	<td>11.2</td>
	<td>3.3</td>
	<td>7.3</td>
	<td>3.3</td>
	<td>.423</td>
	<td>.418</td>
	<td>.824</td>
	<td>10.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>23</td>
	<td>14.9</td>
	<td>3.5</td>
	<td>5.7</td>
	<td>2.1</td>
	<td>.459</td>
	<td>.415</td>
	<td>.860</td>
	<td>15.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>24</td>
	<td>8.9</td>
	<td>3.2</td>
	<td>6.2</td>
	<td>2.4</td>
	<td>.363</td>
	<td>.374</td>
	<td>.826</td>
	<td>10.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>25</td>
	<td>11.3</td>
	<td>2.8</td>
	<td>6.4</td>
	<td>2.4</td>
	<td>.477</td>
	<td>.403</td>
	<td>.882</td>
	<td>13.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>[B]26[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]16.5[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.4[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]7.7[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.1[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].487[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].406[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].895[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]19.6[/B]</td>
</tr>
</table>
[B]Where the Comparison Work:[/B]  [I]Like Lowry, Nash spent the 
early part of his career as a backup.  When given a starting job in Dallas,
he grabbed the bull by the horns and never looked back, eventually becoming a 
superstar.[/I]

[B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B]  [I]A huge part of what has made 
Nash such an effective player is his shooting ability, which he demonstrated
from Day 1.  Though I believe Lowry will continue to improve in this
department, I doubt he'll ever reach Nash's level.[/I]

[B]2. Gary Payton[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I])

<table>
<tr>
	<th>[B]Age[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PTS[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]REB[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]AST[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]TOV[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FG%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]3P%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FT%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PER[/B]</th>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>22</td>
	<td>9.4</td>
	<td>4.3</td>
	<td>8.5</td>
	<td>2.9</td>
	<td>.450</td>
	<td>.077</td>
	<td>.711</td>
	<td>13.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>23</td>
	<td>10.8</td>
	<td>4.2</td>
	<td>7.1</td>
	<td>2.5</td>
	<td>.451</td>
	<td>.130</td>
	<td>.669</td>
	<td>13.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>24</td>
	<td>15.7</td>
	<td>4.0</td>
	<td>5.6</td>
	<td>2.1</td>
	<td>.494</td>
	<td>.206</td>
	<td>.770</td>
	<td>17.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>25</td>
	<td>16.9</td>
	<td>3.4</td>
	<td>6.2</td>
	<td>2.2</td>
	<td>.504</td>
	<td>.278</td>
	<td>.595</td>
	<td>17.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>[B]26[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]20.2[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.4[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]7.0[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]2.4[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].509[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].302[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].716[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]21.3[/B]</td>
</tr>
</table>
[B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]Unlike Nash and Lowry, Payton 
was more or less a starter from day one, and a defensive ace from 
the start.  However, he didn't start posting superstar-level numbers 
until his age-26 season.  In addition, one similarity is that Payton 
game into the league with no 3PT range to speak of, and eventually 
became a more than respectable shooter.[/I]

[B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]Payton's assist numbers were 
likely stifled in his early years do to the fact that he played alongside
another great distributor in Nate McMillan.  He also possessed superior 
size and athleticism to Lowry (and everyone else listed here).  And 
though Lowry's a plus defender, if he was going to become the dominant
defensive force that Payton was, we'd probably know by now.[/I]

[B]3. John Stockton[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I])

<table>
<tr>
	<th>[B]Age[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PTS[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]REB[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]AST[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]TOV[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FG%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]3P%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FT%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PER[/B]</th>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>22</td>
	<td>11.1</td>
	<td>2.5</td>
	<td>10.0</td>
	<td>3.6</td>
	<td>.471</td>
	<td>.182</td>
	<td>.736</td>
	<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>23</td>
	<td>11.7</td>
	<td>3.3</td>
	<td>11.3</td>
	<td>3.1</td>
	<td>.489</td>
	<td>.133</td>
	<td>.839</td>
	<td>17.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>24</td>
	<td>12.6</td>
	<td>2.9</td>
	<td>13.0</td>
	<td>3.2</td>
	<td>.499</td>
	<td>.179</td>
	<td>.782</td>
	<td>19.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>[B]25[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]15.3[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.0[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]14.3[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.3[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].574[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].358[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].840[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]23.2[/B]</td>
</tr>
</table>
[B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]It doesn't, not really.  Because
of his inability to effectively shoot the three ball early in his career, the
Jazz made Stockton a backup for the first three seasons of his
career, and his per-36 minute numbers suggest that this was a mistake.
You can only wonder how many assists he would have collected if he
had started from day one.  I will say that like Payton, Stockton came into
the league with virtually no 3PT shot to speak of, and became one of 
the best shooters ever.  So perhaps there's a remote chance that Lowry
could turn into an elite shooter, in which case I do think he'd become a
perennial all-star.[/I]

[B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B]  [I]See above.[/I]

[B]4. Mo Cheeks[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I])

<table>
<tr>
<th>[B]Age[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PTS[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]REB[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]AST[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]TOV[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FG%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]3P%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]FT%[/B]</th>
	<th>[B]PER[/B]</th>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>22</td>
	<td>10.2</td>
	<td>3.8</td>
	<td>6.4</td>
	<td>2.9</td>
	<td>.510</td>
	<td>.000</td>
	<td>.721</td>
	<td>12.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>23</td>
	<td>12.3</td>
	<td>3.8</td>
	<td>7.6</td>
	<td>3.0</td>
	<td>.540</td>
	<td>.444</td>
	<td>.779</td>
	<td>15.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>24</td>
	<td>11.4</td>
	<td>3.7</td>
	<td>8.3</td>
	<td>2.6</td>
	<td>.534</td>
	<td>.375</td>
	<td>.787</td>
	<td>16.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
	<td>[B]25[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]12.7[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]3.6[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]9.6[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]2.7[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].521[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].273[/B]</td>
	<td>[B].777[/B]</td>
	<td>[B]18.3[/B]</td>
</tr>
</table>
[B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]I think this may be Lowry's most
reasonable comp.  Mo Cheeks was a hard-nosed, scrappy 6'1" PG who 
made four All-Star Teams and was four times named to the All-Defense 1st
Team. In his age-25 breakout season he ranked third in the NBA in assists
per game and had a low turnover rate, and the next year he made his first
All-Star team.  I could easily see Lowry putting up that kind of campaign
in 2011-12 and having a similar career path.[/I]

[B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]I actually think Lowry's ceiling 
is greater than becoming Mo Cheeks 2.0.  Though he likely won't be the
defender Mo was, he can certainly hold his own in that department,
and seems to have greater potential as a scorer if his jumper continues
to improve.  If Kyle can become the distributor that Cheeks was, I think
he'll eventually surpass him.  It should be noted that Mo was generally
the third or fourth best player on some stacked Sixers teams in the '80s.
While I don't think Kyle can be a number one option on a championship
level squad, if he continues to improve I could certainly see him as
the second best player on a very good team.[/I]
EDIT: I was getting into tl;dr territory, so I'll just add here that Sam Cassell and Sleepy Floyd were also sort of late-bloomer types who came to mind for me.

In summary, I'd like to again stress that I don't believe it's likely that Lowry will become a hall-of-famer along the lines of three of the guys listed above. What excites me though is the fact that at the age of 24, three of those players listed above were playing at about the same level as Kyle last year, (according to PER).

In addition, Kyle's just one year older than Jordan Hill, he's been a solid player since day one in the league, and was an important contributor as an 18-year-old true freshman on a good Villanova Squad in 2004-05. Guys who make an impact early, who already have the fundamentals down at a young age, are often the most likely to become stars.

Entering this season, Lowry's the unquestioned starter and leader of this team and he's just now entering his prime. If he can make the leap from 'good PG' to borderline All-Star, not only could it make this team a real surprise in the Western Conference, he would be increasing both his value and likely his teammates' value in potential trades.

But that's just my opinion. Input welcome.
Click to expand...

robbie380 · Dec 24, 2011

I voted for improvement cause I am a fan, but I just can't see his jumper getting significantly better. I think last year might have been a high water mark for his 3pt% as well. I hope he can take his shot to the next level.

rocketsfan4 · Dec 24, 2011

robbie380 said: ↑

I voted for improvement cause I am a fan, but I just can't see his jumper getting significantly better. I think last year might have been a high water mark for his 3pt% as well. I hope he can take his shot to the next level.
Click to expand...

Agree, shooting is a key. If you look at Cheeks in his career, his FG% was 55%-60% in his prime. For Lowry to approach Cheeks' level, he has to become either automatic from midrange and/or maintain or even slightly improve his 3-pt% (and be able to hit them under pressure), which is not easy now that teams know he can hit the shot, plus maintain or improve his performance in all other areas. In any event, not an easy proposition. I also vote for incremental improvement, as much as I would love to see him take it to the next level.

daywalker02 · Dec 24, 2011

:grin:
Comparing him to HOFers and Perennial allstars is a long long long stretch....
Approved...

saitou · Dec 24, 2011

robbie380 said: ↑

I voted for improvement cause I am a fan, but I just can't see his jumper getting significantly better. I think last year might have been a high water mark for his 3pt% as well. I hope he can take his shot to the next level.
Click to expand...

His 3pt% last season:
Nov 24%
Dec 46.6%
Jan 31%
Feb 37.7%
March 42.7

The potential to improve is there. If he can have less bad months like last Nov and Jan, his shooting numbers will improve.

robbie380 · Dec 24, 2011

saitou said: ↑

His 3pt% last season:
Nov 24%
Dec 46.6%
Jan 31%
Feb 37.7%
March 42.7

The potential to improve is there. If he can have less bad months like last Nov and Jan, his shooting numbers will improve.
Click to expand...

I think his mid range game needs to get better, not his 3 point shot. If he has a respectable mid range game then that opens up a lot of options. Additionally, I think it's unrealistic to expect Lowry to shoot 40%+ from 3pt land.

Dreamin · Dec 24, 2011

daywalker02 said: ↑

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/kyle-lowry

Tim Hardaway baby, .....not the racist... the allstar
Click to expand...

I think he was a homophobe, not a racist.

daywalker02 · Dec 24, 2011

Dreamin said: ↑

I think he was a homophobe, not a racist.
Click to expand...

this.

robbie380 · Dec 27, 2011

Bump.

Lowry had a great game. I think the best thing about tonight was that he made it to line 10 times. He has only made it to the line 10 or more times 6 other times in his career. It's fun to watch this guy develop as a player. I hope this becomes a trend for the entire season.

DaDakota · Dec 27, 2011

robbie380 said: ↑

Bump.

Lowry had a great game. I think the best thing about tonight was that he made it to line 10 times. He has only made it to the line 10 or more times 6 other times in his career. It's fun to watch this guy develop as a player. I hope this becomes a trend for the entire season.
Click to expand...

He should make it a lot more this year as he has the ball in his hands a lot more.....more assists, more chances to score, more chances to get to the line.

And hopefully that leads to more wins, but I am not sure that he has enough help out there.

DD

Spacemoth · Dec 27, 2011

Is it just me or does the game look like it's finally slowed down for him?

I didn't get the feeling like he was playing out of his mind today. This might be par for the course for the rest of Kyle Lowry's prime.

Now we just need somebody else to join us and we'll have a Big 2!

BasketballReasons · Dec 27, 2011

DaDakota said: ↑

He should make it a lot more this year as he has the ball in his hands a lot more.....more assists, more chances to score, more chances to get to the line.

And hopefully that leads to more wins, but I am not sure that he has enough help out there.

DD
Click to expand...

I agree with this. Also as you said earlier, unlike Martin or Budinger, I think he'll be much more effective OUTSIDE of Adelman's system.

jopatmc · Dec 27, 2011

All-Star status doesn't matter to me. Wins do. And that's what matters to Lowry.

Lowry is a championship-level point guard, the quintessential leader, the qb on the floor, the smartest player on the floor who outperforms his contract. If he is surrounded with championship level talent, he will win a championship leading the team. If we don't get the talent in here, we'll most likely have to trade him in a major rebuild. We need to add 2 more two-way players, players that can defend and can score 20+ ppg.

tmac2k8 · Dec 27, 2011

I know starting a new thread for this will get me flamed and I didn't get a flame suit for christmas, but can anyone tell me where Aaron Brooks is?? He's not on the suns roster and the most updated news I found was that the suns had made him an offer but he's been cut or something.

dharocks · Dec 27, 2011

tmac2k8 said: ↑

I know starting a new thread for this will get me flamed and I didn't get a flame suit for christmas, but can anyone tell me where Aaron Brooks is?? He's not on the suns roster and the most updated news I found was that the suns had made him an offer but he's been cut or something.
Click to expand...

Locked in DD's basement with Dan Langhi, Spanoulis and Boki Nachbar's career.

Seriously though, he's stuck in China until March.

DaDakota · Dec 27, 2011

dharocks said: ↑

Locked in DD's basement with Dan Langhi, Spanoulis and Boki.
Click to expand...

We are killing at the Y's rec league.

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Kyle Lowry: Breakout Star in 2012?

How Will Kyle Lowry Perform in 2011-12?

He'll have an All-Star caliber season

He'll improve incrementally from last year, but won't improve drastically

He'll repeat (or regress from) his 2010-11 level of performance

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Kyle Lowry: Breakout Star in 2012?

How Will Kyle Lowry Perform in 2011-12?

He'll have an All-Star caliber season

He'll improve incrementally from last year, but won't improve drastically

He'll repeat (or regress from) his 2010-11 level of performance

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