Ron Paul at 52% in Iowa

wait, is it supposed to be some huge upset if Paul wins the Iowa caucus?

 

Let's see:

#1: That's a 52% chance to win - not 52% in the polls.

#2: The latest projection has him at 40%, not 52% anymore - tied with Romney.

#3: In similar fashion, Mitt Romney is at 74% chnace of winning New Hampshire.

#4: Ron Paul is considered the favorite in Iowa right now; if there's any state suited for him, it's that one. They constantly vote for odd candidates (Huckabee in 2008), and caucuses play into Ron Paul's strength.

 

He is recieving more airtime <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/6YXvXd0QBkU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

The additional media attention he is starting to receive is actually a bad thing for him. He can't handle being pressed and the media is already have a field day with the way he walked out on the interview with the CNN reporter because she asked him about his racist newsletters from the 90s.

The guy is about to have his whole life examined and he doesn't appear to be equipped to take the heat. Some candidates are destined to remain on the fringe for a reason.

 

So, Huntsman and Santorum are so unappealing that RON PAUL is looked at before them for the Anyone but Romney sweepstakes? That is.... pretty sad. For both of them. And I really, really hate Iowa now - can't help but observe my aunt was born and raised there, and politically, she's a bit off.

Anyways, I don't feel the need to repost my links.

 

polls, momentum, undecided voters...

 

Huntsman has gone out of his way to alienate major segments of the Republican voter base and Santorum's backwards social views are probably too extreme for even the 2012 version of the GOP.

 

This. Once the national press decides to put a candidate under the microscope, you find out if he/she can really handle the heat. This is a good thing because it's one way of snuffing out pretenders and unstable kooks. It's why late-comers need not apply. It's why candidates who are brand new to national scrutiny have a good chance of imploding. In addition, those without a legit, well-funded, nationwide campaign organization are doomed to fail.

For the GOP, all roads lead to back one candidate.

 

He still will not be the nominee.

 

Spoiler

 

You should follow Nate Silver's blog: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

With Newt continually shooting himself in the foot with that potty mouth of his, Paul has shot up in the polls in Iowa. With that being said, he's not polling very well in the NH, SC and FL primaries.

As other posters have stated, Paul is now getting properly vetted (as all candidates should) and is going to have a hard time taking the heat. We shall see who can stand the fire. Romney is still that stale bag of chips that the GOP is going to have to fall back on.

 

Fortunately for Ron Paul Iowa is among the very whitest of the 50 states, so his past background doesn't hurt him much.

 

heh heh heh

 

The latest CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday finds that Congressman Paul scores highest amongst minorities when matched up against Barack Obama in a hypothetical election head to head.

Paul scores 25% of the vote amongst non-whites, whereas Romney polls at 20% and Gingrich gets 15%.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/12/20/rel20c.pdf

Racism is a collectivist ideology.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/OGhv3paNz6U" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Ron Paul isn't racist. His president is black.

 

Ron Paul's core supporters are all people just like ToyCen... think about it.

THINK ABOUT IT... and weep.