No. Well, Kuroda I guess. And Nomo was really good at the beginning of his career and good again towards the end. But the point is, none of them have been as young or as talented as Darvish. He's 25 and already the greatest pitcher in Japanese history, a generational talent over there. The Rangers have done a good job of scouting young pitchers, and they had someone at every single one of Darvish's starts last year. I'm predicting Dan Haren-type production.
Good move by the Rangers. They're in a win now mode though may have made more sense to just pay Wilson as he was proven.
I look at it this way: Either Darvish at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 and 29, or Wilson at ages 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35.
REPORTING LIVE ARLINGTON TX 76011 RAY GORDON REID HOUSTON TX 77036 YU DARFISH BUST? REPORTS FROM JAPAN SAY USE THEY SMALLER BALLS TO AID PITCHER The ball must be made of cork, cow hide, and other materials. The ball must be between 141.7 and 148.8 grams. The ball must be between 22.9 to 23.5 cm in circumference. RAY GORDON REID SERVICES ON SCENE TO REPORT
Then the signing is a poor one. Dan Haren production is not worth what is expected to be $125,000,000 over 5 years.
Can somebody with insider post this http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hots...lander-zack-greinke-other-elite-right-handers
We now know that the Texas Rangers have won the exclusive rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish, generally considered the best player from Nippon Professional Baseball to ever hit the posting system. Combining his expected contract with the $51.7 million posting bid, the total price for Darvish will exceed nine figures. But will he be worth it? To find out, I polled 10 scouts and big league executives, many with international experience and in-person looks at Darvish. Instead of pure comparisons to others pitchers, I asked the insiders to place Darvish on a scale, picking him against a series of five right-handers, varying from good to great. The question was this: "Based on talent alone, would you take Darvish ahead of this pitcher?" The hurlers in question are Ricky Nolasco, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Opinions varied wildly, but were overall quite positive. Let's take a look. Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins Scouting report: A frustrating talent. The stuff is there, the command is there, the peripherals often point to a breakout, but it just never happens. While those polled were universal in favoring Darvish over a prototypical No. 4 starter with occasional glimpses of being a No. 3, some admitted that it was a question that was at least worth some thought. "It's actually close," said an American League scout. "I mean, look at Nolasco's numbers. Are we all really so sure that Darvish can do that?" The unknown also played a significant role in the decision-making process for many. "I just think the change of scenery is so huge," explained a National League international scout. "It's a gamble. If I was Texas, I would have re-signed C.J. Wilson over Darvish. Everyone is different, and it's hard to know how players will react to being in a new environment." The vote: Darvish, 10-0 Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks Scouting report: More a finesse pitcher than a pure stuff guy, but coming off a year in which he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting. "These guys are known quantities, and that shouldn't be discounted," said one NL exec. "Darvish could be a one, and he could be a four, and we won't know until he gets here." An AL scout agreed: "On a stuff level, Darvish is way better. But you need a pretty big sack to say he's going to outperform Kennedy." (For those who've forgotten, Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA in 222 innings in 2011.) Another AL scouting official insisted that it's what Darvish can do with the stuff that gives him the edge. "A lot of pitchers can get strikeouts outside of the zone," he explained. "When you can challenge hitters inside the zone and get swings and misses, that's what makes a front-line starter, and Darvish can do that." The vote: Darvish, 7-3 Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs Scouting report: Durable with plus stuff, and more strikeouts than hits allowed in 2011. Garza was often the first point of heavy thinking and pauses for those polled. "I have to go Garza here," said one NL executive. "He's young, he's American League East-proven [from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays] and he's got great stuff." In addition, Garza's placement on the spectrum created some questions, as two among those polled took Darvish over Garza, yet preferred Kennedy over both. "I think you're going in the wrong direction," said an AL assistant general manager. The vote: Darvish, 7-3 Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers Scouting report: A bit mecurial, but won AL Cy Young Award in 2009 and had career-high strikeout rate in first year with Brewers in 2011. As good as Greinke can be at times, his inconsistency and unique personality has some that were polled waffling on their choice. "Greinke is tantalizing, but you take that Cy Young Award season away, and he's not always a star," said one AL scout, with another adding, "After seeing Greinke down the stretch in the playoffs, I'll take Darvish." An AL executive saw some similarities off the field as well. "They're both weird makeup guys," he said. "Lots of ego stuff, lots of style points. That could be to his advantage or disadvantage over here depending on how you look at it." The vote: Tie, 5-5 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers Scouting report: Generally seen as best pitcher in baseball. Reigning AL MVP and Cy Young winner. While it should be no surprise that Verlander wins in a blowout, for one NL scout who has seen Darvish in person, it was at least something to think about. "I know you think I'm crazy, and I know I'm higher on him than anyone, but I really have to consider it," he said. "There might not be another pitcher on the planet who can manipulate a baseball like he does." Even for those that saw Verlander as a no-brainer, many admitted that the potential for No. 1 performance was there. "While he's no Verlander, optimistically, you want to see him as a top-of-the-rotation guy," said an AL executive. "Realistically, we need to see how the uber-stuff and uber-athleticism plays out here." The vote: Verlander, 10-0 For most insiders polled, the choke point for just how good Yu Darvish would be occurred somewhere between Garza and Greinke, although a majority still preferred the Japanese import. It's important to note that even the reservations about Darvish had little to do with his talent, and everything to do with the adjustments he'll need to make, from working on shorter rest than he had in Japan, to dealing with far more dangerous hitters, to a new strike zone. Still, reports from professional evaluators, and the ultimate price paid tells you that he was the best pitcher available this winter, and while he was priced beyond many team's reach, the industry generally believes he will be worth the heavy price tag.
Just jumping in on the discussion here. I agree with you that net total cost is all that matters. I agree with you 100% that the net cash outflow is $125MM (or whatever he ends up signing for plus the posting fee of $51.7M). However, I think you are forgetting to include any potential cash inflows from this signing as well. Just ask Les how Yao Ming ended up being. Although injuries derailed him from helping the Rockets long term, financially the dude was a slam dunk from day 1. Signing Darvish gives all of Japan (or all of the Darvish fans, and I keep on reading the dude is like a rockstar there, so it seems to be a big percentage of Japan) a reason to be a Rangers fan. That leads to money being spent that ultimately gets to the Rangers. For instance, let's just say that he signs for 5 years and 125M total like your example. Let's say he brings back 50-60M over the 5 years of his contract (through sponsors in Japan, jersey sales, increased TV ratings, Rangers hats being bought in Japan, I don't know, anything), then I think that should offset the 125M. Using 50M (and I totally made up these numbers, I am not sure if they are ridiculously high and unrealistic), then his net contract would actually be a total of 5 years and 75M, and $15M per year for an ace (and possibly top 10 pitcher) sounds like below market value to me. Obviously this would depend on his success. If he goes to the Rangers and flames out, interest in Japan will be minimal. In a way, this seems like a leveraged investment. It is risky, but the payoff could be tremendous. I think overall it is a risky signing, but I like it. Being a huge Astros fan, this can make the Rangers even more dangerous. Just my thoughts, let me know if you agree/disagree.
50M impact for signing the guy is pretty optimistic. And you have to factor in the impact what an alternative 100M+ type player might bring in -- for example, when Randy Johnson first came to the Astros, there was a pretty dramatic attendance spike in his own right. The financial impact of Yao on the Rockets has been greatly exaggerated. See - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yao-ming-and-the-rockets-weak-china-effect-2011-07-14. Serious Japanese baseball fans have been watching MLB baseball for awhile, with guys like Nomo, Ichiro, and Matsui.
Certainly true - I'd be curious to see what kind of revenue they generate from it. Presumably, Ichiro earns quite a bit of his obscene Seattle salary for this reason. But I don't think other guys like Matsui or Nomo had the same level of impact. I don't know if we'll ever really find out, but I'd love to know what the Rangers are projecting here and what he ends up generating. That would absolutely make it a much better decision if he generates enough offsets.
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/sports...o-sign-darvish/article2274913/?service=mobile Interesting numbers. It sounds like revenue sharing on international players is different for MLB vs. the NBA/Yao numbers I previously posted. If this is truly a $10+m a year boon, and the marginal cost really becomes 5-7m for a guy with alleged ace stuff, then it's a great deal. I have to wonder though, the angle is a bit different -- Boston and New York are iconic franchises, so the prestige and benefits of advertising there are obvious. Seattle, with its location on the West Coast has a much stronger natural Japanese flair (it's also worth noting that Seattle had an absolute renaissance in Ichiro's first season, and winning undoubtedly helps attract sponsors). Texas lacks the brand of the Red Sox/Yankees, and the location of Seattle - I wonder what the discount to them might be.
Yeah, I don't know how much sponsorships the rangers will be able to generate as a result. I also want to say (but am not sure) that Seattle managed to get a TV deal over there to have to all their games televised in Japan. I'm not sure the Rangers could pull off the same, especially since a pitcher only plays every 5th day. I would think that would be a significant part of the revenue boost.
