People in the Republican Presidential Primary who... Can govern: .5 (I give .25 each to the Mormons) Can lead: 1 (Gingrich) Can lead more than their ideological followers: 0 Have appeal to independents: 0 Have ideas: 1.25 (1 for Paul and .25 for Gingrich) Have ideas that won't wreck the country: 0 Have a sane approach to the economy: 0 Have a realistic approach to foreign policy: .5 (Huntsman) Have a real chance of becoming the nominee: .5 (.25 for Gingrich and Romney) Have a shot at maintaining personal and party discipline leading up to the convention and beyond: 0 Can beat Obama: 0 By the time the conventions are over and assuming one of the current Repubs is the nominee, I think Vegas will put the over/under on Obama's electoral numbers somewhere in the 330 range.
Senators, congressmen, governors, big business, etc. You know, the "inside the Beltway" types. After seeing what happened in 2010 (and in 2008 with Sarah Palin), Newt won't be allowed to succeed. How long his poll numbers hold will determine how nasty they will have to get tearing him down. In this go-round, Romney represents GHWB and Dole (I know, pathetic, isn't it?) and he will prevail. No chance Newt is the nominee. Specific statewide nominations are exactly where Tea Partiers can rule the day, but not on the national level. The last thing the establishment will allow is an unstable, crackpot to go down in flames to Obama which would have a ripple effect down the ballot. They must have somebody who will mount a credible campaign and lose by a relatively low margin. Newt will either implode, be scorched and burnt, Paul will spoil it for him in Iowa or (surprise surprise) Romney's will win both Iowa and NH and lock it up. Again: No chance Newt wins the nomination. Same for Paul. If Romney died of cardiac arrest this week, another one or two candidates would be drafted and win. My odds: Romney: 85% Drafted candidate: 15% Newt or Paul: 0%
That's a substantial amount of faith you're putting in the Jim DeMints and Grover Norquist's of the universe, in terms of both 1) their ability to compromise, which they have never showed, ever, and 2) their ability to reach inside the minds of the tea party dwellers who populate these caucuses. 2 is more difficult than ever, it's what David Frum bemoaned now and something that people have been ruing for the last few decades - the advent of the internet has allowed people to create their own realities (e.g., the alternate reality version of Obama that most tea partiers believe in) and live in them more thoroughly than ever before - it's a different world from 1984 when 50% of Americans were tuning in to network nightly news. Hedge fund managers from CT can contribute money to buy ads on talk radio for Romney, but the true believers who make up these primaries aren't as reliant on those mediums as in the past. This doesn't mean that Newt is necessarily going to win - I'm just doubting your suggestion that there's some Patrician GOP/backroom/amalgam/apparatus sitting back and making sure catastrophic/stupid/idiotic things don't happen - there isn't one. The adults either left or have regressed into insanity.
mitt's back in front, in iowa romney - 23% newt - 20% paul - 18% it seems as though the cain vote has split among several candidates. this is the highest polling percentage for both mitt and RP.... also for huntsman and santorum http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2011/12/new-poll-shows-new-gop-leader-in-iowa/
FUAX is the anyone but Romney network, I believe because they think if elected, the Romney that was the centrist Governor of Massachusetts will move to the center much the same way as the Obama that was liberal Senator from Illinois moved to the center when he was elected. This not so subtle attempt at subliminal subterfuge is supposed to identify Romney with Obama to FAUX masses. They have done several similar things before. The Daily show has shown 3 or 4 of them.
However it happens: Newt is NOT going to win. Simple as that. His support is shallower than shallow (even more so than Romney). Unless I missed something, neither Jim DeMints nor Grover Norquist has favored Newt over Romney. I betcha neither guy likes Newt and both want Romney to pull ahead.
I think the GOP knows they can't and don't particularly want to win the Presidency. They seem to get exactly the agenda they want by controlling the House and the Supreme Court. There is a lot to be said for being the unaccountable outsider; you don't have to DO anything. They had 8 years to set things up under Bush. Now they just need to be able to stop the Democrats from changing the course and they are doing that quite effectively.
Except sooner or later, they'll either pay up and lose their seats in Congress or get a Republican in office and have some accountability. As we all know, the people only watch the president.
So why don't they just take up the mantle of "adults in the room" and endorse him them? And would it even matter? THat's the farcical aspect of Norquist that always amuses me, inside the beltway the GOPsters fear him, but your average right wing X-ian conservative wacko in Nowheresville Iowa probably doesn't even know who he is and will dimly repeat his message, if it's foisted upon them, but that's a function of repetiion and conditioning rather than any appeal of him or his message.
That's the point, the Democrats and The President take all the blame for what ever the local Congressmen want to negatively campaign on, because you can always rile up a visceral response to something especially when it's the the local "us' versus the Washington "them". And they don't have to actively propose any real difficult plans and solutions to anything. Then when they are in office it's just obstruction to reform: banking reform, campaign finance reform, healthcare reform, tax reform, a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United...... the gravy train keeps on running. <table style='font:11px arial; color:#333; background-color:#f5f5f5' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='512' height='340'><tbody><tr style='background-color:#e5e5e5' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com'>The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a></td><td style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; text-align:right; font-weight:bold;'>Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td></tr><tr style='height:14px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;' colspan='2'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-december-13-2011/exclusive---lawrence-lessig-extended-interview-pt--1'>Exclusive - Lawrence Lessig Extended Interview Pt. 1</a></td></tr><tr style='height:14px; background-color:#353535' valign='middle'><td colspan='2' style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; width:512px; overflow:hidden; text-align:right'><a target='_blank' style='color:#96deff; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/'>www.thedailyshow.com</a></td></tr><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><embed style='display:block' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:404242' width='512' height='288' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' flashvars='autoPlay=false' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' bgcolor='#000000'></embed></td></tr><tr style='height:18px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><table style='margin:0px; text-align:center' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='100%' height='100%'><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com/'>Political Humor & Satire Blog</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.facebook.com/thedailyshow'>The Daily Show on Facebook</a></td></tr></table></td></tr></tbody></table> <table style='font:11px arial; color:#333; background-color:#f5f5f5' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='512' height='340'><tbody><tr style='background-color:#e5e5e5' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com'>The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a></td><td style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; text-align:right; font-weight:bold;'>Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td></tr><tr style='height:14px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;' colspan='2'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-december-13-2011/exclusive---lawrence-lessig-extended-interview-pt--2'>Exclusive - Lawrence Lessig Extended Interview Pt. 2</a></td></tr><tr style='height:14px; background-color:#353535' valign='middle'><td colspan='2' style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; width:512px; overflow:hidden; text-align:right'><a target='_blank' style='color:#96deff; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/'>www.thedailyshow.com</a></td></tr><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><embed style='display:block' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:404243' width='512' height='288' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' flashvars='autoPlay=false' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' bgcolor='#000000'></embed></td></tr><tr style='height:18px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><table style='margin:0px; text-align:center' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='100%' height='100%'><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com/'>Political Humor & Satire Blog</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.facebook.com/thedailyshow'>The Daily Show on Facebook</a></td></tr></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
according to this quiz, my top three candidates should be Huntsman, Gingrich, and Perry: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/candidate-match-game
I got Romney first by a huge margin, Obama 2nd...... and SANTORUM THIRD?!? Huntsman is fourth, and basically it looks like Romney>> Obama>Santorum>Huntsman>>>>>>>>>Everyone else.
1. Obama 65.6% 6/11 issues 2. Paul 38% 2/11 issues 3. Huntsman 36.3% 2/11 issues This doesn't surprise me. I'm lefter than left and, on some issues, Paul is left of Obama. And I'm not surprised I align with Huntsman on some issues since he is the only one running in the GOP primary that isn't without a single core value (Romney) or clinically insane (everyone else).
I have zero areas of agreement with Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum. Romney comes in fourth for me (SS only) and Perry in fifth (immigration only). I favor Paul over Obama on defense spending and gay marriage (though I suspect Obama privately shares my views here and is too politically astute/cowardly to go on record). I apparently favor Huntsman and Romney slightly over Obama on SS, but that's all.
Obama 6/11 Hunstman 3/11 Romney 2/11 Had to wiggle for a couple of responses...gave Obama the Heath care one because it was better (IMO) then the others which I totally rejected -- but couldn't give him the gay marriage endorsement because even if it's the least offensive of a bad batch of responses I still disagree strongly with him on that. A little sobering where the debate's landed in the right/left spectrum.
