Someone had to do it -- via TPM today House Democratic Committee Dramatically Outraises GOP Counterpart More good news for House Democrats: they’re winning the money race heading into the 2012 cycle. Last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just about doubled the haul of their counterparts, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The DCCC pulled in $6.64 million, while the NRCC brought in just $3.8 million. While the NRCC has more cash on hand (around $12.2 million to the DCCC’s around $9.5 million) and slightly less debt, over the course of the year the DCCC is outraising the team with the big House majority. The year-long totals show the DCCC raising nearly $48 million to the NRCC’s just over $44 million. This comes on the heels of polling showing the public is growing more interested in returning the House to Democratic hands next year: <object width="450" height="323"><param name="movie" value="http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/TPMlinechart.swf?1314135016"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="false"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><param name="FlashVars" value="xml=http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/us-cong-generic-ballot.xml&swf=http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/TPMlinechart.swf?1314135016&width=450&height=323&xMin=&xMax=&yMin=12&yMax=63&defaultHiddenCand=&defaultHiddenMode=Internet&defaultHiddenPollster=13:Internet,21:Internet,24:Internet,23:Internet,12:Internet,17:Internet&hideCandidate=&hideModes=&hidePollsters=&grid=false&plots=false&trend=true"></param><embed src="http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/TPMlinechart.swf?1314135016" FlashVars="xml=http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/us-cong-generic-ballot.xml&swf=http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/TPMlinechart.swf?1314135016&width=450&height=323&xMin=&xMax=&yMin=12&yMax=63&defaultHiddenCand=&defaultHiddenMode=Internet&defaultHiddenPollster=13:Internet,21:Internet,24:Internet,23:Internet,12:Internet,17:Internet&hideCandidate=&hideModes=&hidePollsters=&grid=false&plots=false&trend=true" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="false" allowScriptAccess="always" width="450" height="323"></embed></object>
The money race between the usual groups like the House and Senate campaign committees mean much less now that we're in a Citizens world. It was once true news when Dems came close or beat Repubs, but now it's chicken feed at best and the Repubs are free to spend all the money they want to spend with little accountability.
OK. I'll play. Let's assume that Obama starts with HI, CA, OR, WA on the west coast and everything north of MD and PN on the east coast along with his home state of IL Just that is 210 EVs. Now, we'll give a hypothetical decent Republican candidate WV, KY, TN, SC, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK. KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, and AK to start off for a total of 170 EVs. We'll also give hypothetical decent Republican candidate IN, NC, and MO to bring them up to 206 EVs, though I doubt the Obama campaign will automatically give up those three as he won 2 of 3. Still, all three could go over to a hypothetical decent Republican candidate. So, now we're at 210 for Obama and 206 for hypothetical decent Republican candidate. Let's say MI goes Obama and VA goes hdRc: 226-219. Let's split WI and MN: 236-229. Let's split NM and NV: 241-235. The hypothetical decent Republican candidate is on a roll and picks off three close states: CO, IA, and OH: 241-268. After an all-nighter, FL goes Obama: 270-268. But wait! One portion of Maine goes for hypothetical decent Republican candidate: 269-269. Sorry, I got carried away there. Let's start over with what I really think will happen assuming we have a Let's assume that Obama starts with HI, CA, OR, WA on the west coast and everything north of MD and PN on the east coast along with his home state of IL Just that is 210 EVs. Now, we'll give a hypothetical decent Republican candidate WV, KY, TN, SC, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK. KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, and AK to start off for a total of 170 EVs. We'll also give hypothetical decent Republican candidate IN, NC, and MO to bring them up to 206 EVs, though I doubt the Obama campaign will automatically give up those three as he won 2 of 3. Still, all three could go over to a hypothetical decent Republican candidate. So, now we're at 210 for Obama and 206 for hypothetical decent Republican candidate. Obama takes VA, OH, MI, WI, MN, and IA: 283-206. Hypothetical decent Republican candidate turns out hte LDS vote in the west and gets NV and CO. NM goes for Obama: 288-221. And... who cares about FL.
endless possibilities! Obama Campaign Outlines Five Paths To Reelection WASHINGTON -- At a briefing with reporters on Tuesday morning, top officials in the Obama campaign outlined five distinct paths that they can pursue to help the president win reelection. Speaking at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee, chief strategist David Axelrod and campaign manager Jim Messina pledged to take the same numbers-based approach to the 2012 campaign that former campaign manager David Plouffe famously used in 2008. And in surveying the electoral map, they have gamed out several regional strategies to help them clear the threshold of 270 Electoral College votes. Assuming the president is able to hold on to the states that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004 -- a not entirely risk-free assumption -- the campaign could try to follow what Axelrod and Messina are calling the "West Path." If Obama wins Colorado (and its nine electoral votes), New Mexico (five) and Nevada (six) and adds them to Kerry's 246 electoral votes, he would have 266. Add in the six electoral votes from Iowa, where Obama has been leading the polls (but Republicans have been making voter registration gains), and he'd have 272. The second path for Obama to pursue is the "Florida Path," which would mean winning the Sunshine state and its 29 electoral votes. That total added to Kerry's 246 electoral votes would equal 275. The third path is the "South Path," which involves winning North Carolina (and its 15 electoral votes) and Virginia (13) to Kerry's total to reach 274. The fourth path is the "Midwest Path" which involves adding Ohio (and its 18 electoral votes) and Iowa (with its six) to Kerry's total to get to 270 on the nose. Finally, there is the "expansion path," which has the president losing critical states but still winning the election by bringing others in the fold. Under this scenario, the reelection campaign doesn't hold on to Kerry's wins in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, losing their 20 and four electoral votes respectively. He also fails to win Ohio and Florida, both of which he won in 2008. But by re-winning Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and adding Arizona (with its 11 votes), a perhaps more likely proposition than it was in 2008 when Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was running, Obama gets to 272. Of course, the reelection team isn't tied to a pursuit of one of these paths over the other. And certainly the identity of the nominee who eventually emerges from the GOP primary will affect the campaign's strategy in the months ahead. In a separate briefing with reporters last week, Axelrod said that the idea of someone with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's history in private equity "is going to be a strong compelling candidate in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania is just not true." He conceded, for good measure, that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich would have "less to explain" to those Rust Belt voters. But Romney would play well in a state like Michigan, where he grew up and his father served as governor. None of the Obama campaign's five potential paths to victory took the prospect of losing Michigan and its 16 electoral votes into account. The point, in the end, is that the map is malleable. But the Obama campaign does have more conceivable paths to victory than conventional wisdom would suggest.
This could be good news unless with all the money we just get more corporate Dems that put a "bi-partisan" face to corporate dominance. Besides is there any difference really between 48 Dem senators and 60 if some are Ben Nelson DINO s and the Senate agrees to let 40 Repubs block any action? Then it will just convince more folks the Dems can't govern or do anything.
Depends. Do you think some health care reform, FinReg, and stimulus were better than no health care reform, no fin reg, and no stimulus?
Poll: Rebound among independents gives Obama lead over Romney By Michael A. Memoli February 6, 2012, 8:44 a.m. Republican infighting during the primary campaign and President Obama's election-year reset appear to have boosted the incumbent's standing with voters, particularly independents, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds. The president's job approval rating has hit 50% for the first time since just after the killing of Osama bin Laden, representing an 8-point rebound from his October low point. Voters are still evenly divided on the question of whether Obama deserves a second term, as he argued Sunday night that he did. Fifty percent say he does while 48% say he does not. At a similar point in Bill Clinton's first term, 47% said he did while 49% said he did not. But Obama has opened up a 51% to 45% lead over front-running Republican Mitt Romney among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup; Romney had a 2-point lead just three weeks ago. On handling of the economy, likely the key issue to be litigated in the national campaign, 44% now approve of Obama’s performance, his highest score in more than a year. That's not to say Americans think the economy is getting better. Just 11% describe the state of the economy as good, while 46% say not so good and 42% say poor. And by a 50% to 44% margin, voters say they trust Romney more than Obama at handling the economy. The two are tied on the question of who would be better at creating jobs, while Romney has a more significant edge on who would be better at handling the budget deficit -- 52% to 39%. The poll, it should be noted, was in the field for two full days before the release of new jobs report showing the nation's unemployment rate had dipped to 8.3%. http://www.latimes.com/news/politic...latimes/news/politics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)
The Koch bros, the famous libertarians, had a confab recently in which super wealthy folks supposedly pledged $100 million so it is too soon.
Let Detroit Go Bankrupt By MITT ROMNEY Published: November 18, 2008 just a terrible, terrible headline. his arguments aren't even that bad in that article, but seriously, with any competent campaign team (and hell yes, the Obama team is competent), this would probably sink him in the state.
WOW Rasmussen gives Obama a 10 point lead over Romney this morning. Rasmussen In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president attracts 50% of the vote and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 40% (see tracking history). This is the largest lead the president has enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney.
Obama's running for Congress this cycle. It's probably some Muslim voodoo he does, but I cannot remember a politician who has been so flat out lucky in the opponents he gets. He had an easy one to get to Springfield. Then, a sex scandal that panicked the Repubs enough to give the slot to Alan Keyes, ensuring an easy Senate win. He then gets an old man and a trainwreck of a VP candidate for his first run and now he looks to mop up a second term against the weakest field of any major party in my lifetime. Remarkable.
I've thought all along the margin in November would be 4-5% max either way, most likely for Obama. But if the economy and jobs picture improves significantly (or if people feel like it is), he might win by a bigger margin than 08. Right now, it's not looking good for Republicans at all but a significant global event (Europe tanking, Israel bombing Iran, etc) could change that. rimrocker, agree 100%. You can add that the public's complete and utter disgust with the catastrophic disaster known as the Bush administration created a yearning for something radically different, which Obama rode to victory. Without the flaming bust of Bush's 2nd term, Obama Inc would never have gotten off the ground.
It's not just the opposition. He's a very strong candidate in his own right. I almost (almost -- but not quite) would have liked to see how he'd do against a stronger candidate. I'm surprised it's this close. Bush II had similar fortune against weak opposition.
The Employment Situation for February 2012 is scheduled to be released on March 9, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Bump this when the day approaches. Unemployment numbers is what will make or break the President. See http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_January_12.pdf to keep track of high level unemployment summary.
