Pottery Barn Libya: Gary Farber has a two-part series here and here. He makes a pretty strong case for pulling out. If you're unfamiliar with Farber, he's thorough and exhaustively researches his articles with citations throughout.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4335073...revolution-was-curse-economic-woes-test-egypt 'This revolution was a curse': Economic woes test Egypt 'People in the neighborhood are talking about going back to the streets for another revolution — a hunger revolution' CAIRO — Egypt’s economy, whose inequities and lack of opportunities helped topple a government, has now ground to a virtual halt, further wounded by the revolution itself. The 18-day revolt stopped new foreign investment and decimated the pivotal tourist industry. The annual growth slowed to less than 2 percent from a projected 5 percent, and Egypt’s hard currency reserves plunged 25 percent. In a region where economic woes enraged an entire generation, whether and how Egypt can fix its broken economy will be a crucial factor in determining the revolution’s success. It could also influence the outcome of the revolts across the Arab region, where economic troubles are stirring fears of continued instability, authoritarian crackdowns, or even a backlash against what had appeared to be a turn toward Western-style market reforms. “People are angry,” said Hassan Mahmoud, a resident of a slum near Cairo. He expected a better life after the revolution, he said, but instead he was laid off from his $10-a-day job in a souvenir factory. “People in the neighborhood are talking about going back to the streets for another revolution — a hunger revolution,” he said. With Egypt’s first open election this fall, the challenge of meeting public expectations while nursing the economy back to health has prompted a wide-ranging debate over radically divergent proposals. They include deep cuts to the bloated government work force and vast public subsidies, a leftist re-expansion of the state’s role in the economy, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s plan to impose a 7.5 percent income surtax on all Muslims to fulfill their religious mandate to give to charity. Non-Muslims would not be required to pay — a distinction that could reinforce sectarian resentments. The Western powers are scrambling to address the growing sense of crisis by pledging a total package of $20 billion in assistance to the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, including debt forgiveness as well as loans from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The challenge is steep. The revolution has inspired new demands for more jobs and higher wages that are fast colliding with the economy’s diminished capacity. In an indication of the desperation, the government said soon after the revolution that it would add 450,000 temporary jobs to the public payroll; an extra seven million people applied, said Ahmed Galal, a prominent Egyptian economist. 'It's become chaos' Samir Mohamed Radwan, the interim Egyptian finance minister, recently told the BBC that in his current job he felt “like a prisoner.” With European travelers still fearful of post-revolutionary disorder, only stray cats paw the trinkets in the stalls of Cairo’s ancient market. Tourism, which accounts for more than 10 percent of the economy, has plummeted by 40 percent, officials say. Strikes by workers demanding their share of the revolution’s spoils continue to snarl industry, and business executives say the demands are becoming self-defeating. “We increased wages after the revolution, and a month later the workers went on strike again and asked for even higher wages,” said Moataz El Alfi, chief executive of Americana, which runs fast-food restaurants here. “They beat up the human resource manager, and we had to close down the factory,” he said. “Everyone is jumping on the revolutionary wave and trying to reap extra benefits,” he added, “and it’s become chaos.” Story: Eyeing broader influence, gas-rich Qatar bets big on Libya Others say the drive to root out corruption has frozen business activity. “The main sources of capital in this country have either been arrested, escaped or are too afraid to engage in any business,” said Ahmed Habib, 29, a construction executive. “Many of the contractors in Egypt obtained land by corrupt deals with contracts filled with question marks,” he said. “The government halted most projects to be restudied, and the banks stopped lending.” Many Egyptian economists and Western scholars say that the government of former President Hosni Mubarak tainted free market ideas like privatization because the spoils were distributed to the well connected. “There is a difference between capitalism and corruption,” said Lisa Anderson, a political scientist and president of the American University in Cairo. “It is just being drowned out by ‘the whole damn thing is corrupt.’ ” Long-moribund leftist parties have sprung back to life with calls for expanding public employment, increasing the minimum wage, and perhaps even renationalizing privatized industries. “We now have a rotten capitalist regime and rotten corrupt capitalists,” said Rifaat el-Saed, chairman of Egypt’s leftist Tagammu Party. “If this ‘trickling down’ does not come by the will of the capitalist, it must come by the will of the state.” The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group that is Egypt’s best organized political movement, is also disclosing for the first time the details of its economic platform, including its distinctive answer to Egypt’s chronic poverty: institutionalizing the obligatory Muslim charitable contribution known as zakat. Abdel Hafez el-Sawy, a Brotherhood economist, said in an interview that the group proposed that the government require all Muslims to contribute 7.5 percent of their income to a privately run charitable institution under government oversight — essentially a flat income surtax. Economic openness Although the charity would help the poor regardless of their religion, he said, Christians and other non-Muslims would not be required to pay. “We don’t want to force Christians to do something they don’t want to do,” he said. “We are looking for a way for the government to institutionalize this mechanism so we can fix the poverty problem we have.” The emerging liberal parties, meanwhile, are struggling to articulate an approach that would continue the Mubarak government’s policy of increased economic openness “with limits on the greedy aspects of the economy of the last 10 years,” said Mohamed Menza, one of the young organizers preparing the economic platform of a liberal party known as Egypt Freedom. Mr. Menza said the new party was focused on “administrative reform,” so that government agencies like the Health and Education Ministries could help the poor more effectively. “The approach of the old regime was, ‘The state is too big, let’s make it smaller, period,’ ” he said. “It wasn’t at all, ‘Let’s make it more efficient.’ ” Egypt’s food and energy subsidies are a favorite target because both benefit some who do not need the help while failing to assist many who do. Egypt, a natural gas producer, now spends about a tenth of its gross domestic product — more than it spends on health and education — to keep gas, diesel and electricity below the international market price. Economists and liberals argue that the subsidy disproportionately benefits people who air-condition large houses and drive sport utility vehicles. Phasing out the subsidies would leave plenty of savings to compensate the poor and working class in other ways, said Ragui Assaad, an Egyptian economist who teaches at the University of Minnesota. “There is a lot of low-hanging fruit.” Impatience, however, is growing. Khaled Younis, 45, said he had to lay off the eight people he employed making tourist handicrafts in a slum near Cairo. “Many people here believe this revolution was a curse on us poor, simple folks,” he said. “They just want to be able to survive.”
Egypt's economic woes are in large part due to inefficient state monopolies the military controls. Unfortunately, even with Mubarak gone, the military is still enriching itself. That said, the fundamental problem lies in this---capitalism rewards stability. Egypt will have to wait at least a little while before declaring the whole thing a failure.
Funny stuff. Puppet government in place: check. Army base in place: check. American "interests" in place: check. FREEDOM! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13722786 Iraq will ask US troops to stay post-2011, says Panetta The US soldiers' role is to advise and assist Iraq's security forces in fighting insurgents Iraq will ask the US to keep troops in the country beyond an end-of-2011 pullout deadline, says the nominee to be the next US defence secretary. Outgoing CIA director Leon Panetta said he had "every confidence that a request like that will be forthcoming". Mr Panetta was speaking at a US Senate committee considering his nomination. The US currently has about 47,000 troops in Iraq, none in a combat role. Under a 2008 deal, they are expected to leave by 31 December 2011. Inducements? "It's clear to me that Iraq is considering the possibility of making a request for some kind of [troop] presence to remain there [in Iraq]," Mr Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. He said that whether that happened depended on what Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki might ask for. But if Baghdad did make such a request, he added, Washington should say yes. Mr Panetta did not say how many troops would be involved or what they would do. He said there were still some 1,000 al-Qaeda members in Iraq, and the situation remained "fragile". Leon Panetta said the situation in Iraq remained "fragile" "I believe that we should take whatever steps are necessary to make sure that we protect whatever progress we've made there," Mr Panetta said. The current US contingent is deployed in a training and advisory role. In April, outgoing Defence Secretary Robert Gates said that American troops could, if required by Iraq, stay in the country beyond the withdrawal date. Mr Gates had also expressed hope that Baghdad would make such a request. The BBC's Andrew North in Washington says it seems likely that the US has offered Iraq some inducements to maintain its troop presence. But any suggestion that President Barack Obama will allow some American forces to remain behind is bound to be seen as backpeddling by both his opponents and supporters on his commitment to pull out entirely from Iraq by this year, our correspondent says. He adds that it will be controversial in Iraq as well, where there has been an increase in attacks on US bases apparently aimed at derailing any moves to keep American troops on. US fatalities in Iraq have been rare since Washington officially ended combat operations in the country last August. But earlier this week, five American soldiers were killed in central Iraq, in what is believed to be the US military's single most serious incident in the country in more than two years.
Have you considered that this might not be that they are US puppets but truly believe they can't maintain security without the US?
Have you considered the opposite? That is what you would expect from the guys we largely put in power. In many ways the folks in office are the ones we put in power. Don't you remeber the months in which we were pushing for our guys not so hiddenly? It is not exactly Swiss democracy there. We are still an occupying power. So I guess we stay there forever because of the "global war on terror" or "stability" which has a nice ring to it. Who could be against "stability"?
Judoka, are we to assume in your role as a supporter of "stability" that you are now regretting any sort of Arab Spring?
Providing for general safety and security, such as making it so that the residents of Baghdad and Kirkuk don't have to worry about bombs going off.
In general I think people should have safety and fully supported the relatively peaceful overthrow of Mubarak and Tunisian regime. Let me ask you though do you believe that the Iraqi government can provide safety to Iraqi's if the US were to leave? Do you believe that if the US were to leave that Iraq would be peaceful? Mathloom I would be interested in hearing your responses too.
I'm a little disappointed -- I came to the bbs to see what people thought of the renewed demonstrations in Tahrir Square this weekend, but nobody's talking about it. They are supposed to have elections in a week. The military wants to write autonomy from the civilian government into the Constitution. The Muslim Brotherhood demonstrated against the attempt on Friday, and other groups persisted in the demonstrations over the weekend to be violently squelched by security with rubber bullets, tear gas, and batons. Is the military setting the table for a new dictatorship? Are the protests going to be problematic for the elections? or would not protesting be? http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/21/world/africa/egypt-protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 [rquoter]Chaos, deja vu in Cairo's Tahrir Square Cairo (CNN) -- Chaos reigned Monday in Cairo's Tahrir Square as demonstrators battled security forces, marking three days of bloody violence in Egypt's capital. In the same spot where demonstrators launched protests 10 months ago that ousted longtime President Hosni Mubarak, it seems like deja vu as protesters stand up against the military in charge. Twenty-two protesters have died and 1,700 have been wounded, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health said. Among police, 102 officers and conscripts have been injured, with wounds ranging from gunshots to burns from Molotov cocktails, an Interior Ministry spokesman said. One officer has a critical bullet wound to his head. "People here feel that they have been cheated and that they have moved from an autocracy to a military dictatorship," protester Mosa'ab Elshamy said. "So they are back to the square -- back to square one -- to ask for their rights once again." The military said it is "extremely sorry" for the events under way and called for an investigation. After Mubarak's ouster in February, the military took over Egypt's government. Military leaders say they will hand over power to a new government when one is elected. Parliamentary elections are set to take place November 28. But a complex electoral process follows, and presidential elections could be a year away. Demonstrators say they are concerned the military wants to keep a grip on the country. And they are upset about a proposed constitutional principle that would shield the military's budget from scrutiny by civilian powers. They say they worry the military would be shaped as a state within a state. Some protesters shout they believe Mubarak is running the military council and the entire country from prison. He and his sons Gamal and Alaa face charges of corruption and of killing protesters. Doctors at Cairo's Tahrir Square said injuries in the latest fighting include gunshot wounds, excessive tear gas inhalations and beatings to the head. "I have received many people suffering of convulsions," said Tarek Salama, a medic in a makeshift hospital in Tahrir Square. "Lots of gunshot wounds from rubber and bird shots. And I have seen two cases who have been hit with actual live bullets." On Monday, CNN saw police use tear gas and rubber bullets in attempts to disperse the protesters, who responded with Molotov cocktails. Both sides threw rocks as well. CNN saw captured protesters beaten and shocked with Taser-like devices. CNN also saw bullet holes and a pool of blood. Witnesses said one young man was shot from a nearby building. Witnesses showed CNN mobile phone footage of the wounded young man before an ambulance picked him up. But the police efforts have not shown success in dispersing the crowds, who shouted "freedom." In fact, more and more protesters appeared to be joining the efforts. Protesters started fires in the streets, burning tires and a car. Some political factions have vowed to hold a sit-in Tuesday at Tahrir Square, demanding the immediate resignation of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces. They also demand the immediate punishment of those who have killed protesters in the last few days. The Alliance of the Revolutionaries of Egypt are calling the event a "million man sit-in." The Muslim Brotherhood said it is not joining the event. Military officials have said they will allow protests, but that they must be peaceful. On its official Facebook page, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces issued a statement about the "extremely urgent" developments that could affect the country's "stability and security." The armed forces are "extremely sorry for what the events have led to," the statement said, calling on all political parties and coalitions "to come and work together." The armed forces also called for an investigation into "the reasons behind the incidents," according to a CNN translation. The forces stressed its commitment to "handing over power to an elected, civil administration" and said it does not "seek to prolong the transitional period in any way" in which it is in control. Mohamed Higazi, a spokesman for the prime minister's office, said the government will continue dialogue on reaching a constitution that ensures the election of a civilian government. Some on the streets expressed little confidence in the government, saying there had been little progress since Mubarak's ouster. "Nothing has changed," said Zahra, one protester. "We've gone backwards. The military council is garbage. Mubarak is still alive and well, and the people are dying." Fighting erupted Saturday when police worked to clear Tahrir of people who remained after massive protests Friday. Thousands have denounced a plan for a constitution that would protect the military from public oversight. Clashes between protesters and police also reportedly broke out in the cities of Suez and Alexandria. Hisham Qasim, a publisher and human rights activist, said that Egypt can't afford anything -- including another revolt -- that could further hamper its already struggling economy. The nation's once thriving tourism industry continues to struggle, while unemployment remains high. "The poverty belt is now the ticking time bomb in Egypt," Qasim said. "It threatens that what we went through (earlier this year) could be repeated. ... I don't think we'll survive a second uprising in the span of 10 years."[/rquoter]
Annex Egypt !!!! They will work it out, a leader needs to emerge that can get everyone behind them. DD
I posted something about this in another thread about attitudes in Egypt towards the US. It figures though that a thread about an Egyptian blogger posing nude would get more attention than demonstrations.
interesting... Egypt Justifying Renewed Oppression By Pointing To Occupy Wall Street Crackdowns In U.S.
Did the Egyptian anchor or the tweet accuse the German govt. of shooting and killing a green protester?
The tweet cites the German stance toward green protesters as an example which makes it seem like they see it as a parallel to what they do. They shot and killed protesters.
The Egyptians revolution has just started and it is very much in doubt. The Egyptian the military, backed by the US and Israel are trying desperately to prevent democracy. All three groups are very much against it as they figure the majority of Egyptians will not supprt their agenda. I have to admit that I am surprised to see folks having the stomach to go out and be gunned down again. This time the adversaries of democracy have more time to prepare. You won't see NATO come to the resucue of the protesters even if tens of thousands are gunned down. They are on their own. Egypt doesn't even have any oil to control.
