[CHRONIC] If no season, Rockets may overhaul roster

What? A Roll Forward of contracts? Owners want a roll back!

The owners are going to give Garnett and other vets full pay on their remaining last, big contracts. Hey, KG and Rashard, we're going to go ahead and actually pay the remainder of your contracts -- you won't really miss any paychecks, just be a little late. We'll make it up to you, ok?

You expect this to happen?

Also, many young players and free agents would be against this too. Both sides will have voices against rolling forward contracts. Will never happen.

 

So we're going to trade Scola and play 2 on 5 with Lowry Martin?

 

Allow me to make a case for the Rockets NOT "tanking"* if there is a shortened 2011-12 NBA season:

*By "tanking," I mean that Daryl Morey and Kevin McHale would purposely choose to play some of the younger players more minutes over better veteran players in order to more fully develop them. I think anyone who honestly believes that Morey or McHale would purposely lose games either doesn't know either man or is deluding himself.

Let's say that the two sides manage to salvage a 50-game season, as they did in 1999. In a 50-game season, the biggest winners are actually teams like Houston, Phoenix and Charlotte: teams that are on the playoff bubble but not necessarily favorites to secure a playoff spot over the course of an 82-game season. With a 50-game season, the odds of THIS Rockets team making the playoffs goes up rather dramatically.

With each single game constituting a larger percentage of the entire season, one key injury to a team ahead of them in last year's standings could just knock that team down or out of the playoffs altogether. If a team is based largely around one or two key players, an injury to one of those players during this upcoming season could catastrophically derail that team's season and cause it to plummet in the standings. (FYI, I believe the New York Knicks qualify as such a team.)

If the Rockets roll out the same team they had last year (with a re-signed Chuck Hayes on a reasonable non-cap-clogging deal), it CAN make the playoffs. The Rockets organization apparently will stick with the same offense it ran under Rick Adelman, with Chris Finch being a key component to keeping this continuity under McHale. Meanwhile, McHale and Kelvin Sampson should be able to coach up those guys on the defensive end better than Adelman's staff did. (Caveat: Rick Adelman is a better overall coach than any of these guys. Just so we're clear. But the new staff shouldn't detract from the Rockets' ability to win next season as much as many here think.)

If the Rockets' key players can stay healthy (remember, Kevin Martin managed to kick the injury bug last year, playing in 80 games), there is no reason that this team can't make the playoffs, possibly even as a 6-seed. If Lowry and Martin get hot over a stretch, the chances of a 4- or 5-seed are not out of the question.

Meanwhile, in New York, the Knicks will have Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, an embittered lame duck Chauncey Billups (who KNOWS he's being booted once the season ends so the Knicks can pursue Chris Paul or Deron Williams) and NOTHING ELSE. That team actually played WORSE after it acquired Melo, largely due to (1) lack of continuity and (2) lack of depth. With no off-season program in which for those players to play together, neither of those issues will be resolved by the start of the shortened season. And with little to no practice time available during a condensed season, those issues won't easily be resolved. One injury to Melo or Amare, and the Knicks could find themselves looking up at a LOT of other Eastern Conference teams.

My "Dream (But Not Unrealistic) Scenario" for a shortened 2011-12 NBA season and following offseason:

--The Rockets get hot over a 10-15 game stretch and comfortably make the playoffs, behind good seasons from Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, and with Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger and Marcus Morris all showing well.

--The Knicks get off to a slow start, then one of their stars gets a nagging injury that causes him to be in and out of the lineup (I'm not wishing serious injury on anyone, folks), and the Knicks suffer a set-back season.

--The Knicks' pick ends up in the 6-10 range.

--The Rockets (who would have, say, the 19th or 20th pick) get out from under their obligation to send a future first round pick to New Jersey from the Terrence Williams deal, thereby greatly uncuffing Daryl Morey to use future first round picks in trades.

--Much like with Orlando in Doc Rivers's first year there, top free agents take notice of how well the Rockets played and how they will still bring back their core (Martin/Scola/Lowry), plus good young players (Patterson/Budinger/Morris/top-10 draft pick) and maybe even Courtney Lee.

--The Rockets--by WINNING--become major players for Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.

--The Rockets rebuild and become a contender once again, without ever having to suck.


Feel free to disagree with my outlook. But, with a shortened season, you can't honestly say that it is wholly unrealistic.

 

I just think there are too many "Ifs" in this scenario. Even if we were to make the playoffs we would get demolished in the 1st round. Tanking the shortened season is a much better option that will almost guarantee us a high draft pick and still have plenty of money to sign a Top FA.

 

I think most of us supporting tanking aren't saying for the Rockets to ask the players or coaches to tank. But taking the option away from them by fielding an inferior roster.

This can easily be done simply by trading away Scola and/or Martin while not retaining Chuck Hayes. The resulting team would lose due to lack of talent, regardless of how hard the team plays or how well McHale coaches.

 

Right. The lotto is fool proof and teams with a better record ALWAYS win.

 

Who cares about "tasting" the playoffs if it hurts our draft position. Nor is there any proof that a superstar would be more likely to choose Houston over a glamor city just because the Rockets made it to the first or second round. We had a scrappy underdog performance 30 months ago. It accomplished nothing more than putting the final nail in Yao's coffin. Given a choice between a first round exit and a better draft position, I choose the better draft position.

I thought that pick was lottery protected, so the Rockets would only lose it if they make the playoffs and keep it if they don't?

 

If the Rockets land a top ten player to go along with Martin, Patterson, Lowry, Scola, Chase and two lottery picks they will hardly be struggling to make the playoffs. Get your head out of your ass.

 

I agree that there isn't much to gain by only making the playoffs and getting swept, but totally disagree that being a winning team will not impact the decision of top tier free agents.
None of these guys will go to teams that haven't made the playoffs the year before.

So if you want any chance at signing Dwight Howard or Chris Paul you better not suck this year.

Does this team have the right pieces to entice either guy to begin with? Probably not, but I'm sure Morey will look into trading for All-Star caliber guys like Iggy and/or Nene.

Whether or not he will succeed doing so is a whole nother story, but that the plan, I believe.

You guys may want to tank, but has there been any indication that that's the direction this team is headed? I mean whats the point in advocating tanking when you know it's not going to happen.

Finally, I don't think a shortend season will help the Rockets, having a new coach and all, but given that there's a belief that most of the offense will remain intact I don't think we'll start off slow either.

That's the point. By not sending the 2012 pick to NJ you'll be hindered by the protection on the pick you owe the Nets in future trades involving future picks.

 

I actually disagree. I think there's a better chance we lure a big FA with a top 5 pick than a 1st round ass-kicking. Either way though, the odds are small that someone like Dwight will come. So you can't exactly base your decision on that... wink-wink deals notwithstanding.

And by tanking, at least you get that good lottery pick to build for the future regardless of free agency results. While going for a playoff berth would be the more risky move, since you're hoping to build on that rather than continue to wallow in mediocrity like so many crappy playoff teams have done in the past.

 

I have an idea, how about the Rockets tank and get two first round picks instead of one, which would significantly increase their chances of getting the type of player they need to build around.

And insulting someone doesn't strengthen your argument, it only makes you look like a child.

 

Look guys, the shiny new toy thing, i get it. It's just that we haven't fully played with the toys we have already. Some of them are still new.

 

I see your point and there's certainly some merit to it. I just don't think we're headed that direction.

I don't know if you have to make the second round or further to lure any of those top tier guys, but I think you certainly have to go in a fight, not an asskicking.

Also - and we just may have to disagree on that one - I don't think Howard or Paul will go to any team to play with a rookie, top-5 or not, though having that top-5 pick certainly would help you acquiring another 'star' to pair those guys with.

Thinking about it, that's kinda what the Celtics did.
Have decent talent in place. Play all your young players. Suck. Then cash in, trading all you picks & young players for proven studs.

I still think I'd be a tough sell/plan to pull off, though I can see the argument that there's less downside in not running the risk of continuing to run on the mediocrity treadmill.

We'll see.

 

Shiny new toy thing? Great post

 

On your first point, please keep in mind that the odds of the Rockets (1) making the playoffs AND (2) winning a round AND (3) luring a top free agent based on their performance, are likely higher than the odds of the Rockets (A) finishing with a bad enough record to have a decent enough chance at winning the lottery AND (B) actually winning the lottery and getting a top-3 pick in the 2012 NBA Draft AND (C) drafting a young player with enough appeal to lure a top free agent.

Even with all of the Rockets' young players playing decent minutes, I don't think this team is capable of finishing with any worse than, say, the 7th worst record. That would be considered a pretty bad, "tanked" season. The odds of getting any pick in the top-3, combined, with a finish like that? Less than 15%.

Do you really want to blow up the season--and likely any chance of getting a top free agent to seriously consider you--so that you can add Bismack Biyombo to this team? Or Corey Brewer? Or Charlie Villanueva?

Yes, I realize that other players have been picked at #7 that are very good--like Steph Curry and Eric Gordon--but this nevertheless emphasizes my point that a completely wasted season may only net you a so-so player.


As to your second point, I believe HMMMHMM answered it, but I'll elaborate further. Until the Rockets actually convey their pick to the Nets, the continuing obligation will continue to hang over the franchise as a restriction on its ability to trade any future first round picks.

Due to what is widely known as the "Ted Stepien Rule", teams cannot make any trade that would result in that team POSSIBLY being without a first round pick in consecutive future drafts.

This means that the Rockets cannot trade ANY of their future first round picks (other than the Knicks' pick, which Morey isn't trading unless for a star), unless it is "the Rockets' pick in the draft that is two years after it conveys its pick to New Jersey". I don't know about you, but if I'm another team that Morey's trying to make a trade with, THAT particularly described pick is not very enticing.

Moreover, the Rockets can't get around this by trying to trade a future pick only if it is a top-14 pick. Why? Because there is no guarantee that the Knicks won't land a top-5 pick in any given year, so the Rockets could potentially be without a first rounder in consecutive drafts. Hence, no can do.

So, you see, making the playoffs in a shortened season and getting the pick obligation to the Nets out of the way, all while possible getting a lottery pick from another team, may actually be more beneficial than getting two late lottery picks.

 

I think it's a lot easier than all of this. Only a few teams may have the possibility to offer 2 max contracts, Houston being one of them. Let's assume Lowry is gone if CP3 comes here as well. When free agency/acquisitions opens up... Houston acquires Josh Smith (a close friend of both CP3 and especially Howard). There were rumblings of this before the lockout, and I still think that Morey drafted Marcus Morris for Atl. That's a consipiracy for another time though. Let's make no doubt about it, Howard wants to team up with CP3 and not Deron Williams. The Lakers would have to revamp a huge payroll roster in a short amount of time to even be in position for this. While Houston is not LA, Miami, or NY, it's not chop liver either. It's time to come to grips that Houston will be a player next summer.

 

Gotta agree with HMMMHMM on this one, as well. Yes, an absolute "ass-kicking", as you say, would be very bad. But what makes you think that the Rockets would get their asses kicked. ANY kind of showing in the first round would be better than a pathetic lottery season for attracting free agents. For instance, I think a guy like Nene will at least consider the Rockets (who finished above .500 and played hard throughout the latter part of the season) as a possible destination much more strongly than he would have had the Rockets sucked last season and drafted a guy like Kemba Walker or Bismack Biyombo.

Also, by your rationale, Dwight Howard will consider the Washington Wizards (who boast 2010 #1 overall pick John Wall), the Minnesota Timberwolves (2010 #4 overall pick Wes Johnson AND 2011 #2 overall pick Derrick Williams) and the Sacramento Kings (2009 #4 overall pick Tyreke Evans, #5 overall pick DeMarcus Cousins AND #10 overall pick Jimmer Fredette) much more strongly than he will a Rockets playoff team. I don't know about you, but I would put the Rockets COMFORTABLY ahead of any of those teams on Dwight's wish list.

 

Let's hope we get a season first, then hope the young guys light bulbs go off.

DD

 

One of these names doesn't fit...

 

Landing Dwight Howard after probably losing this season would be beyond awesome. A little beyond believable, too, but, as Kevin Garnett would say, NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBAAAAAAAAAAAAWWW.