You bring up a good point, a lot of QB's have regressed a bit including Matt, and that was my point,...sure 2nd in YPA is great due to what? Due to the run game opening up long bomb wobbly balls to Jones or Arian and such...and that is great. That is what we want, but it isn't because of anything extraordinary...and that is my point. We don't need extraordinary. Leinart can hit the bootleg passes as well and I don't see a regression of decision-making as Schaub had me cringing on some red-zone decisions, so could it get worse? I don't really see it, because of what is required of the QB...as simple as that.
I know Schaub has made some red zone mistakes... frankly, all QB's have. The fact that these are constantly brought up, and nobody remembers his red zone success is baffling. He's had more successful TD passes and runs in the red zone than he has errors, this year included. Schaub's decision making is superior... to the point where he's pretty much automatic in this offense. He knows the plays, he knows the reads, he knows where his recievers are (or where they're supposed to be), and he knows what he's capable of. Leinart doesn't... unfortunately you don't get that sort of innate thought process until you're actually in a real game. So, we won't know what Leinart can do, decision making wise, until he's out there... and likely, even once he is out there, it will take him a few games to really get comfortable. Then the test will come when he plays an elite defense, and has to really make elite throws/plays. A lot of unknowns... but there is time to work through it. And, the team around him couldn't be more "stable" to allow him to learn on the fly.
A few other notes on Schaub from ESPN Stats and Info, as he shifts into the background: •He had started 46 straight games for the Texans and entering Week 10 he was one of seven quarterbacks to take every snap. •After throwing a combined 27 interceptions in 2009 and 2010, Schaub had just six in 10 games this season, tied with Colt McCoy and Jay Cutler behind only Aaron Rodgers (three). •According to Total QBR, Schaub has been an elite-level quarterback since the 2008 season. His 66.2 QBR in that time period trails only Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Wishful thinking, at best... but the bottom line is that we're damn lucky that we don't need him to play better. We can afford some mistakes by him, and overall worse play, and still come out on top with our superior o-line, running game, recievers, and defense. What we can't afford is a QB who is absolutely clueless when it comes to managing the game/situations, and ends up ruining everything. If he can't complete simple passes or constantly makes bone-headed mistakes, there's a CHANCE the offense gets bogged down. Then the bootlegs don't work, the running game gets stifled, and the O-line starts crumpling with all the extra defenders they have to deal with. THEN, the offense stops getting early leads, and the defense can no longer play ultra-aggressive (Wade's defenses are at their best when they play with a lead). Of course, the above is a WORSE case scenario... but its easy to see the stream of events that can take down the other-wise "stable" parts of this team, if you have a QB who is incapable of completing a screen/dump-off/slant/or out... and fumbles easily, or likes to throw it right to the other teams defenders.
While I'm hoping like hell that you guys are all correct here and that Leinart can be Schaub-lite, I don't feel nearly as optimistic. Over the years, Schaub has become my favorite Texan. Mainly because I generally like players who get the job done even if they don't look pretty. And I've rarely seen a QB as clean as Schaub is. He makes quick decisions. He throws the ball away if nothing's there. He almost never forces anything. In the face of a blitz he'd still remain patient and wait for the routes to develop. And he runs the play-action as well as anyone in the NFL. While he doesn't throw the 40 yard bombs that make you go wow, he throws a ton of 15-20 yard medium passes that pick up 1st downs. Honestly, if the Texans go anywhere, I feel it will be because our defense somehow morph into the Ravens/Tampa Bay defenses of decade past. Rather than anything the offense will do. Because I think our offense will be conservative, dink and dunk offense that will score a bit. But can't overcome a mediocre defensive performance.
Maybe in years past would the offense have to morph into something you describe without a solid QB... but I just don't see this team giving up or being stopped so easily with their running game. There have been several plays over the last 4 weeks when you KNOW the defense is expecting run, they've got an extra defender in there, and our line/RB's have still been able to exploit them. Doesn't work against all defenses, but it does work against most... and certainly there's no opponents on the remaining schedule where I don't think they'll be able to run the ball on.
I was thinking more playoff opponent than regular season opponents. I believe the Texans can go 4-2 to finish the season, 3-3 at worst, with Leinart. And win the dvision. But playoffs is another story. And assuming no first round bye, we likely face Steelers/Ravens or Patriots/Jets. And against them I'm not sure power-running game will work. Perhaps I'm thinking too much hoping for playoff success. And everyone else are okay with just a division win. Personally, I would find that a disappointment myself.
Although I agree he will be a substantial downgrade from Schaub, Leinart would have to be completely awful for this offense not to be at least average. He has a fantastic system to work within which he has had tons of time to study under the tutelage of great QB coaches, and many weapons at his disposal with Andre coming back and Foster/Tate running the ball.
In modern NFL, I have yet to see a good offense that doesn't feature a good QB. The Texans are the perfect example. They run more than any other team in the NFL, yet Schaub still ranks among the top in passing yards. And while Leinart has parts around him, he's still the guy who needs to connect the parts together. I feel more than anything else, I just want Leinart to be able to read defenses. If he can do that, we're golden. But that is probably the hardest thing to do for an NFL QB.
I'm just thankful that our entire Oline has been able to stay relatively healthy so far. They're the heart of this offense, and if Leinart cant succeed behind them, then he needs to start looking for a new job, and we need to start looking for someone else. 12-4.
The Jacksonville game will without a doubt be the most "interesting" game of the season. All eyes will be on the QB. His performance and the outcome of this game will be the barometer for the rest of the season. If he looks as good or better than Schaub and there are no more injuries, the rest of the AFC needs to brace themselves. On the other hand, if he stumbles badly and we lose, things will look bleak. Right now, I think he will do better than expected. (fingers crossed)
The injury to Matt is very unfortunate, as hard as I am on the guy, I believed he was the most important player on the team, and the one the team could least afford to lose. Now, though, upon reflection, I think Leinert should be able to do the job - not as well as Schaub but good enough to win with this team. And it is pretty fortunate for Kubiak and staff that they have an extra week to prepare and game plan for a left handed QB like Leinert. The guy did some good and bad things in Arizona, but he never had the running game or defense he has in Houston. I still believe this team is a top 2 seed and Super Bowl contender even without it's most important player on offense. DD
All the other teams coaches will now put everything they have into taking away the run and force Matt Leinart to throw. The question to be asked is can he make enough throws to keep the running game going? I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks.
He is not Curtis Painter, one thing Leinert can do is throw and he has great targets to throw to in AJ and Daniels. We got this !! DD
Belive me, Kubiak/offense would LOVE if any team decided to sell out to stop either run or pass. That's why he preaches that you have to have balance... to prevent a team from doing that to you. I'm confident in our counter punch ability. Also, TB was a prime example of a team that was selling out ALL DAY to try and stop the run. Besides the bootleg, Kubiak utilized quick slants and sending Arian out as a WR for screens. In the end, they couldn't stop either the pass or run because they didn't know what to guard against.
Oh ye of little faith.....I have to make that prediction for it to work......the reverse jinx powers are not to be trifled with. DD
