1. This isn't 2009. We aren't dependent on an explosive passing game bailing us out and winning games anymore. In fact, it's very possible 2009 fooled us into thinking Schaub was more than what he is. He teased a near 5000 yd season heaving it over 36 times a game with a near-99 QBR, but hasn't been at that level since. He's very very good, but we can all agree he isn't elite. This season, we have: #13 passing attack #3 rushing attack #2 pass defense #5 rush defense #2 defense (points allowed) #1 defense (yards allowed) #2 take aways (INTs + Fumble recoveries) Schaub and the passing attack are valuable, obviously....but are they leading this team or complementing the other aspects of it? 2. The schedule is in our favor http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/51017/2011-nfl-strength-of-schedule-weeks-10-17 For weeks 10-17, we had the 29th toughest rated schedule in the league. Jacksonville is without Mathis now, which means they HAVE to dedicate Landry over the top on Johnson every down or get murdered. If they want to put a safety in the box against the run, they will be bare naked and bent over deep against the playaction. Cincinnati, without Leon Hall, will be in a similar position but they are much better against the run in general. Colts are doormats. Defensive Coordinators are catching on to Cam Newton, and the Panthers are dreadful against the run. Bengals and Falcons are going to be tough games...but 4-2 would translate to 11 wins. 3. We control our destiny. Beat the Titans on New Years Day and/or sweep the Colts and Jags. Division crown gives you the berth. Titans still have the Bills, Falcons, and Saints to go through, and have to pull within a game of us going into Reliant to have any shot at a tiebreaker. If we go 2-3, they still have to go 4-2 against tougher opponents AND win on NYD AND have tied or bested our division record (currently we are 3-0 and they are 1-2). In short, 0.500 ball almost guarantees we win out. 4. We don't know for certain that Leinart is going to be horrible a. Leinart saw his first game action as a Texan late Sunday in obviously limited playcalling action. He hasn't wowed in the preseason, but we simply have not seen what he can do in real game situations yet. b. Largely, he failed in Arizona because he came into the league with a massive ego and was more interested in the lifestyle than putting in the work. Getting demoted and later cut should have been wake up calls. c. It isn't just that he came back to the Texans this summer, Kubiak wanted him back. Hopefully that can be taken as a good sign. d. He's worked with the system and receivers for two years. He's not a rookie that needs to figure out the speed of the game. e. Kubiak is a quarterbacks coach at heart, and it's safe to say the coaching Leinart received here has been better than we he got in Arizona. f. Leinart has been a poor pocket passer when asked to make tough reads and display poise under pressure. We know that. The upside is, he won't be asked to maintain an aerial assault. He will be handing off as we emphasize a powerful run game and manage the game with the occasional boot and playaction. If he continues to check down, well, Foster is a fantastic guy to feed in the flat. g. We've got two weeks to get him up to speed and adjust the gameplans. That's a remarkable and rare blessing. When the Pats lost Brady for the year in week 1, Matt Cassel was enough to get them 11 wins and a playoff spot. I refuse to believe that at 7-3, with a better all-around team and softer slate of games, we can't do the same with Leinart for 6 games. Yes We Can!
Great read, emjohn - thanks. Who would have thought this team could lose Arian Foster briefly, Mario Williams for the season, Matt Schaub for the season and Andre Johnson for a long stretch and still be "OK". With regard to point #1, I'm curious how Leinart will do, but if he isn't much of a threat, I do think the effectiveness of the running game is going to drop. It would be nice to see Andre get back in just as a bailout option for Leinart (this team is giving the Rockets a run for their money on injuries). But we'll see -- certainly a strong defense and running game has been enough in the past for other teams.
Awesome, and incredibly cathartic to read. I agree with everything you just said, and am keeping the faith that this team will continue to roll. I'm even confident that we can take Atlanta at home. What I would LOVE to see is the Texans come out in the Jacksonville game and run a playaction bootleg like they did against Tampa, and have it completed downfield. If there is one play that would assuage the entire city of Houston in one fell swoop, it would be that. The team, the city, and opposing defenses would all be put on notice that our passing attack still demands a little respect.
I can think of 5 reasons off the top of my head why you bozos will be ok. 1.) Leinart doesn't have to be a world beater. 2.) Tired Cliche - Defense wins Championships 3.) League's best rushing attack behind top notch o-line 4.) Kubiak's conservative nature fits Leinart's limited ability 5.) Schaub might make throws that Leinart won't, but conversely... Schaub might risk throws that Leinart knows he can't make.
#4 is the most significant point in my eyes, because winning in the playoffs was my expectation and I don't want to lower them. Leinart has been working hard. Maybe he has improved. We'll need him to be slightly more than just a game manager if we're going to make noise in the playoffs.
I'm optimistic that Foster will have a strong case for AFC POY... checkdowns are a fantasy owners best friend
Baby steps, let's see if Leinart can be an efficient game manager and worry about clinching our division, then we'll worry about if he's good enough to lead us to victory in the playoffs. edit: I was sorta more responding to Ziggy's 2nd part of his post than emjohn's first post.
The 2005 broncos with that rushing attack...that gives me hope. Jake basically averaged in sixteen games what schaub has averaged in 10.
another thing and this may seem to disparage Schaub (but not meant to) - there were times we turned it over in the air near the end zone way too often for what I cared for - and that was about decision-making of the QB . . .If you iso all the defensive stats, and the teams' success of emerging players, you would see Schaub not being one... in fact you could argue, his play THIS YEAR thus far was not top 12 as it had been in the past. . . The point is we look like Super Bowl contenders so far with average QB production/decision-making due to other dominant areas taking up the slack - No question a top 5 QB, ala Drew Brees does wonders, but Schaub even in his best year could not come close. . . We will do fine and I am sure of it now after the initial shock.
Schaub is better than people realize. First of all, he rarely turns the ball over. I know key interceptions stand out, but looking at the full body of work, he simply doesn't do it very often. His YPA is also very strong - currently second only to Rodgers; that's a bit of an under-the-radar stat but it, combined with the TOs, is proof that he throws downfield very efficiently. Those plays extend drives and open up the run lanes. Lastly, while his receivers have done a lot of the heavy lifting on his big pass plays this year, Schaub effectively sells the play-action and while not always pretty or in stride, delivers catchable balls that allows his playmakers to make plays. Those are the three areas where Leinart will have to deliver and it's why I'm still not totally on board with him just yet; I need to see him excel at those things first. This is a very good system with a lot of talent - but if your QB can't make plays within it, they're in trouble - don't delude yourself into thinking the QB can be sub-mediocre and the run game will save it. Maybe it can every now and again but not consistently and probably not in the playoffs. My biggest fear is Kubiak outsmarting himself. "No one's expecting Leinart to air it out, so let's throw it 50 times!" He needs to check his ego, coach to Leinart's strengths (while avoiding his weaknesses) and put him in position to succeeed - this is not a chance to prove your system; it's a chance to cater it to your QB and make it work for him, at his pace and on his terms, not yours. In a lot of ways, it's a fascinating prospect. How good is Gary Kubiak? We're about to find out.
After a full day of mulling it over and taking a long sadness bath, I've realized that I may have overreacted a bit. We still have a quality team. While Leinart is not close to Schaub by any means, I have faith that Kubiak can coach him up to be good enough to get into the playoffs. Playoffs, people. It still sounds so sweet.
the offense only works with the defense. the defense is attacking but they have to be in the lead to be completely effective. the running game works with the passing game, the threat of both help each other. without a good passing game the running game suffers the entire offense suffers, the defense is not operating from leads and also doesn't have the energy they benefit from time of pocession. therefore its not that simple, the parts work as a whole not individually. that being said i'm happy because the coach that i believed shouldn't have been let go is still coaching this team. we have a damn good coach and i'm glad he's finally getting his respect
Hell yes is too strong, hell no too weak, and I've sobered up already. Realistically I think we do okay with Leinart, make the playoffs for the first time, and exit them after losing the first game, unless Schaub is back in time (unlikely) in which case anything can happen.
Hot tub has to know that this is his ideal and last chance to perform well and get a good contract and a starting job somewhere. You have a team built for a deep playoff run with outstanding D and a running game. You've been handed the keys to a Ferrari now just don't **** it up.
He was 2nd in YPA and 6th in rating when he got injured...sure, he wasnt the old Schaub we were used to, but no way he was outside of the top 10 or even top 8 this year, considering how other QBs like Rivers, Ryan, Freeman, Flacco, Sanchez, Vick, etc... have been playing.