Ah, it is a thing of beauty when a team understands how good they are ....confidence is a grand thing. DD
It was a blitz so.................I don't know if it's still count. But uh, they replay the over the top view and Daniels was open but Matt didn't look that way.
the more i think about not going for it on that 4th down, the more i can't believe it. you are at their 49 yard line, you have less than 1 yard to go, you are moving the ball at will, the other team has a weak offense, and you already have a solid early lead. you could not ask for a better set of circumstances to roll the dice. but kubiak really wanted 29 yards of field position. possession for your unstoppable in the early going offense? irrelevant. 29 yards of field position? when will you ever be able to get that back, you have to take it. really, what were the odds we would be stopped there, maybe 25%? so the expected value of going for it was about 3/4 of a continued possession on the opponents side of the field vs 25% of the net punt yardage (29 yards). 3/4 of a possession from the 48 with a hot offense vs 7 yards of field position against a weak offense. and in the gary kubiak calculator the 7 yards wins out? that just seems ridiculous. i realize we're now up 21-3 and no one will probably ever think of that decision again, but those are the kinds of things that cost you in real games.
Its not like he's never gone for it before. Obviously its a game-by-game, opponent-by-opponent decision. And, as you said, this apparently is not a "real" game, so its not going to "cost him". Also, its not like he told his punter to kick it in the end zone... had he known that the alternative was a touchback, he likely goes for it. He's looking to pin them deep.
