Football Outsiders has us at an 89% chance of making the playoffs resulting from 20,000 simulations based on their opponent-adjusted team ratings (basically accounting for how good or bad our opponents have been on paper). The win over Tennessee apparently shot us up 41% in the results while sending Titans down 44%. Take care of the teams we're supposed to beat and we should be golden. I'm still going to be pissed if we limp into the playoffs at 9-7 and Kubiak stays around.
YES! Weak Schedule doesn't hurt. QUESTION: Will anyone else in out Division have a final record over .500? Titans maybe 7-9 by the end I don't think Jacksonville or the Colts top that Rocket River
Can somebody with ESPN Insider post the 2012 playoff seed predictor article? http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story?id=7141042&_slug_=introducing-espn-insider-nfl-playoffs-predictor&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fstory%3fid%3d7141042%26_slug_%3dintroducing-espn-insider-nfl-playoffs-predictor
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds According to football outsiders, Houston is the 5th likeliest team to win the Super Bowl this season at 7.2%.
1. New England Patriots (14-2) The Patriots have the most efficient offense in the league, but people often forget about their success running the ball. New England ranks second in the AFC in defense-adjusted rushing efficiency, behind only Fred Jackson and the Bills. 2. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) The ageless Ravens defense ranks No. 1 in every defensive efficiency category, limiting opponents to 16 points less than a league-average defense per game. Now if only the offense could help out … 3. Houston Texans (12-4) After an abysmal 2010 (ranking dead last), the Texans' pass defense has turned it around, ranking fifth this year. 4. San Diego Chargers (8-8) While the Chargers are 4-2, they have been mediocre against bad teams. As a result, their opponent-adjusted numbers are average or below average in every category except pass defense, where they rank just 16th. 5. Buffalo Bills (12-4) Jackson leads the AFC's most efficient running game, but the Bills also rank second in the AFC in pass efficiency, behind Tom Brady and crew. 6. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) The Steelers have won three straight after a bumpy start, but their run defense has slipped precipitously due to injuries. That being said, they've made up for it with a pass defense among the NFL's best. AFC: LAST TWO OUT Tennessee Titans (9-7, 40.9 percent playoff odds) The Titans have lost two straight and are quickly falling out of contention. Thanks to a paper-soft schedule however, they may have a chance to overtake Houston for the AFC South. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7, 26.2 percent playoff odds) The Bengals rank above average in every defensive efficiency category, including eighth in per play pass defense. Unfortunately, the offense, led by rookie Andy Dalton, is subpar in every category. It may all come together, but odds are against this year. AFC REMAINING TEAMS Oakland Raiders (7-9, 44.4 percent) New York Jets (8-8, 23.9) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9, 12.0) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 10.6) Denver Broncos (4-12, 8.7) Cleveland Browns (5-11, 6.1) Indianapolis Colts (1-15, 2.7) Miami Dolphins (2-14, 1.0) 1. Green Bay Packers (15-1) Behind Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are dominating through the air … and winning every game. Green Bay leads the league in defense-adjusted passing efficiency, adding more than 11 points per game above league average on passing plays. 2. San Francisco 49ers (14-2) The 49ers are winning by avoiding mistakes on offense and dominating on defense. San Fran also ranks fifth in overall defensive efficiency. Combine that with an extremely soft schedule and you've got a playoff-bound trifecta. 3. New Orleans Saints (13-3) The Saints' run game is often overshadowed by the brilliance of Drew Brees. After adjusting for strength of opponents, the Saints actually have the fourth most productive running game in the NFL. 4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) Even with DeMarco Murray's explosion in Week 7, Dallas ranks just 31st overall in run efficiency. 5. Detroit Lions (11-5) Out of all the teams with above league-average passing numbers, Detroit throws the ball more than any other team with a 1.8 pass-run ratio. 6. Chicago Bears (10-6) The Bears are winning almost entirely because of their defense -- only Baltimore has a better run D. Chicago has held opponents to 18 points less than a league-average run defense, after adjusting for strength of schedule. NFC: LAST TWO OUT Atlanta Falcons (8-8, 22.7 percent playoff odds) Even without Matt Ryan's injury situation, the Falcons are too inconsistent right now on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs. They are trending upward, however. New York Giants (7-9, 38.4 percent playoff odds) There is super advanced analysis needed here: you can't lose to Seattle at home and call yourself a contender. That said, the bigger issue is an absolute gauntlet of a schedule the Giants will face down the stretch, significantly limiting their odds even if they can kick inconsistency issues. NFC REMAINING TEAMS Philadelphia Eagles (7-9, 25.1 percent) Washington Redskins (5-11, 19.8) Carolina Panthers (7-9, 11.7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10, 10.0) Seattle Seahawks (6-10, 7.5) Arizona Cardinals (4-12, 4.7) St. Louis Rams (1-15, 2.1) Minnesota Vikings (5-11, 0.8)
Maybe the rest of the AFC South could unite in a concerted effort to give Indy more wins than the Dolphins.
I heard Tennessee has already said, "We got this. We've been training our entire existence for one shot to take down a division rival with the biggest choke the NFL has seen since our last choke."
It's incredible how starkly different the mood is in this forum compared to what it was after the loss to the Ravens. Now we're going 12-4. Before we were going 7-9. I say, 12-4 here we come!
It's weird. I know a lot of fans who had that game chalked up as a loss beforehand and included in their 12-4 predictions and even they did the sky-is-falling/sunshine-and-rainbows routine. Texans fans, neurotic til the end. or maybe that's Houston fans...
The Titans are about to got into a downward spiral with some tough games coming up (not including Carolina).
If history holds true,we are going to flounder through the middle of our schedule. The difference being is we are in a division where all teams are going to flounder. Towards the last 4 games of the regular season the Texans will put it together like they always have the last few years under Kubiak to save his job. The difference being this time we will make the playoffs as the division winner. We then will be able to continue that momentum into the playoffs and I feel we will get to the AFC championship,maybe even the super bowl. This game we watch is a game of peaks and valleys.The Texans seem to peak right about the time the playoffs start. Unfortunately, the playoffs haven't been in our vocabulary until this year.
