Exactly the same thing. Also what is up with calling people prc apologists. Who do you hope to convince by attacking the posters instead of the actual posts? Yourself?
I don't know why people are arguing over cost of an invasion. It is literally a pointless argument. Here are the scenarios. China and Taiwan accept unification peacefully - no military clash involved China and Taiwan stays in the status quo - no military clash involved and Chinese government happy(yes they are content with this scenario, folks) No amount of American interference or arsenal on the part of Taiwan matters in the above two scenarios. So now, we take a look at the last scenario: Taiwan tries to secede In the last scenario, There is literally no "decision" on the part of the PRC. THEY WILL INVADE. They will be forced to invade, and no amount of potential cost in lives or global impact be change this decision. In this instance, the PRC will basically be at the mercy of their own propaganda. No leaders at the top of the PRC will survive the backlash if they don't act. Because they've set themselves up for China to become a major player in the world. The PRC would be in a worse position than even Lincoln when the south seceded. You can deride the Chinese navy all you want, but if the PRC is faced with either destroying Taiwan or let Taiwan secede, Taiwan will be destroyed. Note that I say destroy and not invade. US interference may prevent China from invading Taiwan, but not enough to stop a massacre. You don't need a navy to fire a bunch of missiles across the bay, and effectively cripple Taiwan. So basically, it's an all-or-nothing proposition. Either peaceful co-existence, or all Hell breaks loose. Arming Taiwan and showing support pretty much makes any compromise impossible to occur.
If they formally declare secession, the USA has made it very clear that it will not defend Taiwan. Under those conditions, China won't need to consider destruction. They can force Taiwan to expend all their air defenses. Even if the ROC manages a 2-1 or 3-1 kill ratio in the air, China will still be able to grind them down. Same goes for Taiwan's Navy. Even if the ROC Navy manages heroic 3-1 or 4-1 kill ratios, they still get ground down by numbers. Once ROC has no navy and no air force, and PLAAF bombers have blown up all the SAM sites, invasion goes from an iffy proposition to a likely proposition. Without air superiority, and without a naval force to block the amphibious forces, they probably wouldn't even be able to repel the first landings by the PLA/PLAN. Successful defense scenarios all require the PRC to rush to beat reinforcement by the USA. If they can be methodical and make it a war of attrition, PLA successfully invades every time.
Any real war is economic suicide for both. The money is working on both sides . This flap is all posturing. Nothing will happen as long as the people who run things are making money and the people with the power aren't threatened with losing it.
I'm not sure China would risk an invasion of Taiwan -- a loss or stalemate would be devastating for them and they don't exactly have a stellar military history.
I'd say under Obama this should be true. But you never really know with future administrations. If we ever get another gungho conservative President trying to act tough... You never know with these things.
You're joking right? I don't think there will ever be a war, as I don't think it would be popular among PRC citizens, or at least I hope it won't.
I've tried asking him to explain why he thinks they can't be compared, but he hasn't offered anything
Another $5.8 Billion in military sales to the independent nation of Taiwan. _______ U.S. says mulling further Taiwan arms sales The Obama administration is weighing fresh arms sales to Taiwan as part of a sweeping effort to deter any Chinese attack on the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, administration officials told Congress on Tuesday. Such supplies would be on top of plans sent to Congress on Sept. 21 to sell Taiwan $5.85 billion in new hardware and defense services, including upgrades for Taiwan's 145 F-16 A/B fighter aircraft, bought in 1992. Beijing deems Taiwan arms sales a grave interference in its domestic affairs and the biggest obstacle to improved relations between the world's two largest economies. "We are consulting with Taiwan on a full range of capabilities so they're aware of the threat and they can undertake the defensive preparations," Peter Lavoy, acting assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs, testified before the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee. Lavoy declined to discuss details of a potential follow-up sale. But he said the administration was still considering Taipei's five-year-old request for 66 new late-model Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 C/D fighters, valued at $8.3 billion, in addition to the pending upgrade of its F-16 A/B models. Beijing's sustained investment in armed forces across from Taiwan continues to shift the military balance in its favor across the Taiwan Strait, he said. China has deployed as many as 1,200 short-range ballistic missiles and growing numbers of medium-range ballistic missiles plus land-attack cruise missiles opposite the island, Lavoy added. The planned F-16 retrofit, he said, would provide "real and immediate" contributions to Taiwan's security and amounted to the "best bang for the buck at this time." The United States will continue to build military-to-military ties with Taiwan, Lavoy said, "to ensure Taiwan has the ability to defend itself today and in the future." full article
Good, Taiwan wants to buy stuff. The U.S. can use some jobs making the stuff Taiwan wants to buy. China will complain about it like they always do with this kind of stuff, but things will settle down soon enough.
Exactly, if the US is going to continue being a major player in global politics, then we have to mantain our policies. We can't sacrifice our own interests out of a fear of pissing off economic allies.
All of this is for show. I seriously doubt the PRC would militarily invade Taiwan and I doubt Taiwan will declare defacto independence. In recent years ties between the two have been increasing and both are enjoying significant economic benefits. I think it is much more likely to see some sort of federation in the next 20 years than war.
For a country with such a massive army, China really isn't very imperalistic. That always seemed to be the Chineese way, prefering to be a nationalistic and rather isolationist country rather than be a Rome or Britain.
Agree with you completely. There will be instances of drama and excessive rhetoric, but the chances for conflict diminish each and every year.
We should use our relationship as leverage against China to get better trade policies or to normalize currency prices instead of pissing off trading partners. We have these silly cold war alliances with Taiwan and Israel that cost us a lot of flack with the billions of people against those regimes. Its not our job to be the judge of each nation but to support the lifeblood of our country's dominance which is our companies and their ability to sell our goods, services and ideas globally. The 20 million in Taiwan and 7 million in Israel are a pittance compared to the billion Chinese and billion Muslims we piss off supporting these regimes.
Chinese war p*rn: LONDON, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- An ugly momentum is building in the South China Sea, where an official Chinese newspaper called last week for war against Vietnam and the Philippines to uphold China's assertion of sovereignty over the mineral-rich seabed, estimated to hold 7 billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The lead article in the Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times Tuesday carried the headline "The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea; Let's wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to prevent more wars." Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysi...h-China-Sea/UPI-23491317637140/#ixzz1Zy1FSFpd
They appear to have serious "imperialistic" designs on the rocks and tiny atolls of the South China Sea, at odds with the claims of several other nations bordering it. Serious enough to be aggressively using their navy to interfere with the attempts of those nations to look for oil and gas in the region.
