Starting to hear more about this from the mainstream- Saw a Chevron commercial on tv two nights ago that flat out raised the peak oil issue. Oil is a big issue. Link Published on 29 Jun 2005 by Bartlett website. Archived on 30 Jun 2005. Congressman Bartlett discusses peak oil with President Bush by Staff This afternoon, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett enjoyed an extensive discussion about peak oil with President George W. Bush at the White House. Congressman Bartlett declined to discuss or characterize any of his private conversation with the President, but said that he was very happy about the meeting. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has discussed global peak oil extensively in the past seven weeks including six Special Order speeches. Copies of the text and charts are posted on Congressman Bartlett’s website at www.bartlett.house.gov. Congressman Bartlett was a guest on a one-half hour program, E&E TV’s “On Point,” available via the Internet in flash video format. It was distributed on Monday, April 18. Host Colin Sullivan, Editor of Environment and Energy Daily, moderated the discussion about peak oil with Congressman Bartlett and Mr. Roger Diwan, Managing Director, Markets and Countries Group, PFC Energy. A transcript can be downloaded from E&E TV’s website at www.eande.tv/main/?date=041805. Congressman Bartlett said, “America has only 2 percent of the world's known oil reserves.” We produce 8 percent and consume 25 percent of the oil produced worldwide and import close to 2/3 of the oil we use. We imported 1/3 at the time of the Arab Oil embargo. Oil production in the U.S. peaked in 1970 and has declined every year since then. Alaska and Gulf of Mexico oil slowed, but haven’t and can’t change that trend. Energy experts agree that America can never produce enough oil domestically to meet our current or future demand.” “Peak oil is not unique to America,” added Congressman Bartlett. “There is a consensus among energy experts that global peak oil will occur and is fast approaching. Forty percent of the world’s oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf that is vulnerable to terrorist attacks. China increased its oil imports 25 percent last year. China is investing in oil projects around the globe and building a blue water navy to secure oil shipping lanes.” Congressman Bartlett said, “The United States is the most efficient and productive country in the world. We do lead the world. We cut our use of energy per $1 of GDP by 50 percent since the early 70’s. That’s really good. However, with only 2 percent of reserves and 8 percent of production, we’re depleting our reserves four times faster than the rest of the world. American needs a national energy policy and a program on a scale of the Manhattan Project that developed the atomic bomb during World War II to prevent or mitigate the consequences of global peak oil. Doing nothing or doing too little too late will lead to a global economic and geopolitical tsunami with potentially devastating ramifications.” ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Congressman Bartlett, a conservative Republican from Maryland, has been the only member of Congress to speak out about peak oil. Energy Bulletin has published Bartlett's talks and interviews, including the most recent talk on May 11. Search the EB site for more. -BA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Original article available here. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Petroleum effects everything ranging from manufacturing, plastics, transportation/shipping, energy, agriculture, productivity and services. Using a simple projection, at the present annual growth rate of oil consumption, we'll need 16 times the present discovery rate of new oil fields to sustain consumption in 20 years. Bush will not support energy alternatives that hint resistance to his "Climate Change" policy even from within his party. The issue will stand until it gets bad enough for us to act.
Civilizations have risen and fell throughout human history, it is a distinct possibility that our civilization based on oil will be gone before the end of this century.
Thought this would be any interesting thread to resurrect. Saw Daniel Yergin on the televsion, on the Colbert Report. Read his book back in college, very well written, though I don't agree with things he says about peak oil. I was looking on the eia.gov website (Energy Information Agency) and they had graphics and statistics stating US oil production is at ~9 million barrels per day. That number sounds tweaked because they included condensates as well as refined and liquified natural gas, which I believe have not been historically included in oil production or reserve statistics. Seems dubious to me. This however doesn't make false or any less credible Huebert's prediction of peak USA oil production in the early 1970's. In fact, US crude oil production (what Huebert was referring) is actually about 5 million per day, most of which is from federal offshore Louisiana. Also according to the eia.gov, the US's crude oil reserves have been declining since peaking in 1970. Kuwait's national oil company has admitted that production of it's largest field has peaked. Offshore oil field discoveries in Brazil in 2008ish were initial said to be ~30 billion barrel reserves have now been downgraded to ~8 billion, though most of the initial claims were made by journalists. And, world oil production has been steady at ~82 million barrels per day, which explains how rising demand has driven up oil prices, not speculation. I also did not agree with Yergin when he said American demand has declined because of more fuel effecient cars. Bo-hunk! Price has been the biggest factor; price got too high, people sold off their gas guzzlers for more effecient autos and drove less...so there may be a kernel of truth to this. Now let me explain why I resurrected this thread, today in our beloved Houston Chronicle was an article about the giant pipeline everybody's been b****ing about. Within the article was a quote from the Sierra Club saying that the oil industry's "days are numbered". For real or not for real?
i don't know about peak oil but domestic supplies are currently very abundant. on gasoline, usage is actually down and refineries are operating at record low capacity in the 85-90 percent range the only reason e&p's are complaining about the government is because they want to take adavantage of the current price. they don't care if we have enough or not. they're trying to manipulate the public into thinking they want to bring the price down with more supply but supply is fairly abundant RIGHT NOW. however that's not reflected in price and they want to take advantage
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/09/28/...-oil-output-will-hit-all-time-record-by-2016/ Report: North American oil output will hit all-time record by 2016 Maybe Hubbert’s Peak isn’t the tallest mountain after all. North American oil production will hit a new all-time high by 2016 given the current pace of drilling in the U.S. and Canada, according to a study released by an energy research firm this week. U.S. oil production in areas like the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, Bakken and others will rise by a little over 2 million barrels per day between 2010 and 2016, according to data compiled by Bentek Energy, a Colorado firm that tracks energy infrastructure and production projects. It’s a reversal of the steady downward production trend that started around 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked at around 9.5 million barrels per day. Canadian crude production is expected to grow by about 971,000 barrels per day between 2010 and 2016, with much of it headed for U.S. refineries. Combined, the U.S. and Canadian oil output will top 11.5 million barrels per day, which is even more than the amount produced at the peak in 1972.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/09/15/report-u-s-has-surprisingly-large-amount-of-oil/ Report: U.S. has “surprisingly” large amount of oil Posted on September 15, 2011 at 12:46 pm It’s no surprise that a new National Petroleum Council report says North America’s natural gas potential is huge. It’s become a common refrain in recent years as hydraulic fracturing has unlocked vast formations previously deemed uneconomic to tap. But the report’s finding that oil is also more abundant than previously thought was less predictable. The same technology that opened up shale gas — combined with success in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico and even surges in conventional oil onshore — are improving the nation’s potential to be more self-reliant for oil, according to the report released today. By 2035, oil from shale formations — also referred to as “tight oil” – could produce 2 million to 3 million barrels of oil per day. Under the most optimistic assumptions the U.S. and Canada combined could produce up to 22.5 million barrels per day, the study concludes.
The greatest oil shocks in the past 40 have been the OPEC oil embargo in the early 1970's, the Iranian Revolution in 1979-1980 period and of course the 2005-2008 period. The first two were caused by supply - as in OPEC embargoed oil therefore creating an increase in price. The Iranian Revolution caused a reduction in Iranian production (supply) and lead to a price increase. Eventually Saudi Arabia reduced is production once the Soviet Union increased its production, presumably to finance the Afghan War. The third however saw no reduction in supply but rather a steady rate of supply at around 82 million barrels per day was maintained during the price increase. However demand rose in China. Eventually Chinese and other consumers were not willing to pay such high prices for gasoline (oil's biggest derivitive) and the prices went down.
Days are numbered for sure. Any resource that is zero-replenishment has a shelf life. I just can bet we wont be alive long enough to see that happen. Either a world war or global famine will destroy civilization when oil becomes "scarce" (as if it wasnt scarce already)
The original thread had to do with major oil companies starting to discuss the issue and at that time was concentrated on the geology of peak oil in the middle east. Today from what I have seen the discussion is more around 'peak cheap oil', simply put, the day of cheap oil is over for a petroleum driven world. We need alternative energy solutions for the future.
