Price in terms of what? Price is all relative. And I agree with pip, that chart makes no sense. What are the variables it is using to scale 1998$s back 500 years? And if you think it will depreciate in the next 10 years(in terms of what I am still wondering), what preserves wealth better? The USD that isn't worth 1/100th of what it used to? And please stop saying businesses and investments. Those are not vehicles for saving. If you think people will be better off in them good for you, it is an entirely different discussion.
I don't think he understood your reference. It sounds like the only way he knows how to price things in is in terms of dollars. In that case, he must not be very aware of what has occurred the past 50 years around the world if he thinks gold will depreciate much vs the dollar long term.
Lol well there aren't a plethora of charts. Source = google search "long term gold price chart"...first link. http://www.chartsrus.com/ It's not my fault these multi century charts don't include this second huge bull run in gold. They have plenty of other charts that are more up to date, but without the multi century data. And even if it is hard to match the data points from back when Colonial Spain was in power then it doesn't matter cause we have data points back to the 1800's. Here is another link from the National Mining Association http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf I got it from a google search of "historical gold price in dollars". Then you can use the amazing google search "inflation calculator" and figure out about what the inflation adjust price would be http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ From what I can tell those inflation adjusted prices on that chart are close to reality. If anything they have inflation a bit higher which would make gold's price higher when adjusted for inflation. Gold didn't start to explode until after it was allowed to after 1968. It looks to me that gold was pegged at a much lower inflation adjusted price when it actually backed currency. When I can go down to the grocery store with my gold pieces and buy milk with them then I'll call it currency. When I have to click the "Currency" hyperlink and not the "Commodities" hyperlink for gold prices on the CNN Money pre-market webpage....then I'll call it a currency. Also, I don't think it could even be defined as an investment. I think the proper term is speculation. That's what people do with commodities and currencies, right? And what is so bad about terming it as something that you feel is undervalued for a certain period of time? Also, (I am asking seriously) I have never seen any solid research as to why gold is given the price it is given. Yes I know the debasement of currency, but how is fair value determined outside of some arbitrary price that the market assigns to it. Every piece of research I've seen seems very subjective. I didn't know central banks were looked at as the smartest men in the room now. Anyhow, I really think you should reread and rethink what you wrote in that last part. If you can name one person who's fortune and power has came from owning gold (especially at these price levels) and not from owning or working for businesses that produces resources, products, and services people use then please write his or her name down. http://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/
Sorry, yes I was assuming in dollars. As things stand now....I don't see the dollar losing its reserve currency status for the next decade. So I was just assuming gold would be in dollars. Who knows, maybe things will change and I will change my opinion, but I just can't see the world economic order being overturned by 2021.
I have no answer if you say I can't include businesses and investments since they will adjust for inflation. Maybe go buy some oil. I dunno....go buy some art or something. Maybe wait a few years for the bottom to eventually fall out of the real estate market and buy some real estate then. I know you say I can't say businesses or investments, but some friends of mine recently caught a good deal on a medical office building in a part of Austin just north of campus. They are making good money even while they are paying off the note and then they will be making twice that and actually own a multi-million dollar property by 2019. Sorry, I just think the small business route is a better and safer way for me to protect my money from inflation versus just buying gold. Business and investments may not for everyone, but then again gold might not either....especially at 800% off it's low or whatever it is.
u think it might have had smth to do w/ nixon closing the gold window in '71, maybe? :grin: did u even read cxbby's posts (or the ones i've been replying to you in previous year??? i give up.
Gotcha. Let's try this again....so where should gold be valued if it begins to back the dollar again? Let's try in 9/27/2011 dollars to start. Also, at what point in terms of dollars is gold overvalued? Are you ever going to sell gold? Gold isn't always fairly and accurately valued. Do you agree or disagree with that? I mean you say it doesn't change that much in real value, but it does. It changes in value with respect to what you can buy with it. There is no way around that. I mean if we look at how gold was valued from mid-1980 (to exclude some of the spike I'll use the middle part of the year) to mid-2005 it declined in value in dollars. In terms of mid-1980 dollars it really got killed. Gold didn't really accurately reflect dollar debasement for that period. It was a poor way to "preserve wealth" and it wasn't a constant store of value for that 25 year period. Am I wrong?
robbie i already answered each of these questions in a prior discussion we had, the last time u posted this same historical gold chart.....please look back on that thread when u can.....in any case, to repeat, holding gold guarantees that you will not go bankrupt.....when you have real wealth, the scariest thing (other than serious illness) is to not still be wealthy tomorrow......getting into businesses and farm land you may end up even wealthier down the road....you may also end up broke...........when you pour your wealth into gold, you will never go broke
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=203803&highlight=gold&page=5 I searched for 'gold' in any of your posts before I posted that. I had found our discussion, but you didn't discuss anything related to gold valuation or discuss how gold was a poor store of wealth for that 25 year period I referenced. You didn't state if you felt gold ever became overvalued or undervalued. You didn't talk about how high you feel gold (in today's dollars) could go if we went back on the gold standard either. I posted this http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=6087350&postcount=102 which was similar to my post above, but you didn't respond to it and the thread eventually died. And sure you won't go broke owning gold, but you can still lose value if you purchase it at too high of a price. Same thing goes for land too. If you buy at the wrong times you can lose a lot of value/wealth/however you want to term it. If you feel we are on the brink of the rule of law and civilized society collapsing then maybe buying land is a poor decision...........but that's not about to happen. That being said arbitrarily buying real estate is probably a poor decision right now versus arbitrarily buying gold right now. One is in a downtrend and the other is in an uptrend. Oh and I did find a Yuan/Dollar wager you had with SamFisher from May of 2008 :grin: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3662298&postcount=67
BTW how do you feel about platinum if it maybe drops to a 15% discount to gold or something big like that? I have been watching it and waiting to see if the bottom will fall out on it.
sorry i was gone on vacation at sea for a month after that post and didn't check the bbs much. but in any case, that particular post explains exactly what you're still failing to understand, that gold is simply money. in the west from the early 80's to 2000, stocks & real estate ballooned in value. and they ballooned in value in terms of gold. gold stayed the same. gold remained the same AU atoms. it simply took more AU atoms to buy a given plot of land, for instance :grin: but gold was still wealth during and through this period all the way to today, while many of those stocks and real estate plots have since gone worthless. this is what cxbby was bringing up earlier in this thread. u are mistakingly conflating investing with gold.
i don't follow nor am i concerned w/ platinum/palladium/silver - they don't have a 5000yr history of being money (although silver has been treated as such from time to time)
Say serious business what I'm about to say. Go back and look last time I posted something serious in this thread. It was just before the blood bath in August. Enough qualifying and to the news from my boy with all the contacts. A huge clearing firm is facing huge redemptions. If you don't know what this means basically a redemption means the customers are saying I want my cash and I want out of the market. The company is going to take massive financial losses on the funds that they manage and that this is a big deal. It might be wise to tighten your stops if your long and if your short possible big pay day in your future. He said if true we should see a massive amount of selling sometime soon and that larger institutions are getting ready to sell a massive amount of shares should these dominos fall. Be careful out there CF members. It might get ugly.
It has been a great store of wealth for 5,000 years, I think I will take my chances. More importantly, relating to the discussion, it has been the ONLY money that has retained its value in those 5,000 years. Understand this: Land is not money. XOM is not money. Your UPS stores are not money. If I want to save, I put my wealth into money. If I want to invest, I'll hit you up and hopefully you can give me a good deal on one of those UPS stores. You are still arguing saving vs investing, which has nothing to do with the topic at hand.
You pretty much avoided anything I said. CALLING SAM FISHER! What type of argument is he throwing at me? The land ballooned in value in terms of gold and gold was worth less in terms of dollars durung that 25 year spike to spike period. Land ballooned in terms of many mediums ...does that make them currency? Also, land never became worthless. Why did you even say that? It still has value, but it is worth LESS than what it was...similar to what happened to gold for 25 years after the last spike. I asked for you to provide some sort of valuation info on gold. Let's call it a currency...you still have given me no valuations as to what it can buy if it gains primacy over the dollar. How many dollars do you believe it would take to buy an ounce of gold if gold was backing the dollar? Gold is currency, right? How much will it be worth relative to everything else if gold starts backing currencies? In summation, you seem like you never feel like gold is overvalued or undervalued and you state everything revolves around gold.
In summation why can't you ever discuss anything without an insult or dismissive, superior sounding comment. Keep working your 60 hour weeks!
