Lol when one reads a sentence that finishes with the phrase "...it will be all over," in the context of every other post you made about AAPL then that implies you were thinking it was the top. Yes, 1230...where you short and said you weren't anywhere near full size. It's not exactly something to be proud about. Further, from my memory, there was nothing in your posts that stated you felt 1230 was the absolute top of the market. If you were so confident that it was anywhere close to the absolute top then why were you so afraid to take something closer to a full position? Anyhow...I do think it is interesting that this thread started to get some posts about the sell off in gold from people other than you and I. Also, I thought it was interesting how UTX announced the largest industrial cash buyout ever with GR for nearly a 50% premium and the market didn't care. Ok I'm going to go home and plant my plants I bought earlier today. I hope tomorrow is interesting, but it's Friday and they usually end up with underwhelming action.
I've actually had my money out of the market for a couple of months. Thinking about getting back in after this big drop. Not day trading anymore so I'm looking at longer trends in the market. I might give the market some time to settle into October.
I'm curious to everyone's definition of: Short term investments Medium term Long term. What time frames are these?
I don't do short term myself (simply don't have enough money for the swings) Medium term 8-12 months. Long term I would like it to be 10+ years. Of course that's all relative, my medium might be shorter than some people's short term. And if I see profit in anything outside of those time frames I sell then. About 3 years ago, made a play on a pharmaceutical, can't remember the name of it to save my life. I thought I'd hold onto it for the next 6 months when one of their drugs was coming up for FDA approval. Some kind of diabetic insulin shot. A month later it spikes something like 20% and I sell it all then. Luckily enough it wasn't approved and it dropped 60% the next day.
can anyone recommend any books/websites to learn more about how the stock market works? ways to invest etc... im in my early 20s and dont really have money for it right now but want to learn. thanks
Because there was a jobs number the next morning and not all of us are interested in gambling away. The good news is that since then there has been plenty of back and forth and opportunity to cover/build a new position. You know, that whole trading thingy. Would have loved to share with all the folks here my every move like I do through email with some of the CFers now, and like I did last year on here, but honestly just didn't feel like it this time around. I wonder why? Here is a sample though, I hope the CFer I sent this to doesn't mind me sharing. Sent this 2 days ago, 9/20, the day the market topped: Xed out some minor details going forward, since you know, you won't be needing that. Looking to break those August lows, I'll give you that for free.
Not sure about "investments", but to me short term means within a week, medium within a month, and long term 6 months or over. Which is just for trading. Also obviously have to keep in mind the big picture, which is multiple years, something most scalpers who call themselves professional traders have no clue about.
Yes I remember you were waiting for the jobs number, but I mean really how big of deal was that going to be? The market had already been rallying hard and pricing in a lot of potential good news very quick. Like you even stated you would sell the hell out of a gap up on a good jobs number. So why not just get in the trade and still sell the gap up on the jobs number that you were planning on doing anyway. Also, was your initial entry a gamble? You had no problem playing the chart and getting in the trade before the jobs number. I feel like it was more of a gamble to hope for a good jobs number and hope for the market to gap up to get in your full position rather than play the resistance that you had originally called out. It was going to take a mega jobs numbers month after month to have a sustainable rally beyond the one that had already taken place. The economy hadn't been recovering so what were you really worried about? Just play the chart and we were clearly over extended and into resistance. Yeah you may have been down a bit in your position to start, but you have to consider the risk of not being in the trade...especially when you say felt very certain that it was the "absolute" top. Just my opinion! I figure a numbers guy like you has to have stats on his win% and profit/loss per share/contract in various situations. I used to keep tons of data on my trades. Do you keep that kind of data? I know it helped me considerably to trust myself and be more aggressive in more situations where I feel strongly about something. Well share away...just try to actually post stops if you do That might be helpful for others who aren't as active as you and I. And I don't know why you are so sensitive. You certainly weren't afraid to jab at me, but it's not like it stops me from posting my thoughts when I feel like it. _____________________________________ ACTUAL MARKET TALK And my initial feelings are to expect a break of those August lows too. We have been testing it too much and there are no near term catalysts to the upside outside of us just being down a lot lately and I guess hope for another QE3 would be another catalyst but that seems out of the question for now. But the Fed's latest efforts have really driven up longer dated bond (yields dropping) and I figure people are going to have to start looking elsewhere for yield. There are lots of very safe, big dividend paying stocks out there at reasonable valuations. [rant]Hell, LMT just raised their dividend by a dollar today and that put its yield at like 5.5% and they announced a $2.5 billion buyback. They should have just committed that $2.5 billion to dividend payments over the next 10 years and then they would have really caused the stock to explode....but whatever. Companies are still wasting their money on buybacks even though all the data shows they are terrible at buybacks. MSFT just did the same thing. They should have jacked up their div to $1 rather than commit to more buybacks. Whatever....[/rant] Also, I do find it interesting how the VIX isn't moving higher. Either way we have a lot of support below that August low. Also, the skew on puts is still completely r****ded. It makes me wary of any extended sell off in the market. For example...A SPY January 2012 68 strike put would cost about 68 cents. So you have to pay 68 cents to buy a put that is out of the money by 40% that expires in 4 months. We never even got to 68 in the SPY when the market crashed. Just completely stupid. An equally priced call at the 136 strike is only 20% out of the money and we were actually near that 136 price back in July. FWIW I have been selling weekly out of the money puts (and calls when we rally) in the SPY, QQQ and IWM and it has treated me pretty well. IWM actually offers much better value for selling puts. I would like a breach of that August low to start selling some October expiration waaay out of the money puts. Normally, I prefer to stick to the options that only have a couple of days to go til expiration if I am selling the volatility...but the pricing is just not reality as it stands and it will become even more absurd if we breach that August support.
SLV getting close the 30 breakout level. Setting up for a nice bouce trade with everyone dumping. Gold/silver ratio is at 51.5 right now hasn't been this high for nearly a year since the uber rally started.
Well it's still pretty weak. I made money buying GDX but nothing really buying GLD and SLV. I hope we have more weakness on Monday cause I am totally out of my long positions.
as someone who began accumulating in 2002, last purchased at $373, and was for many yrs the only poster here imploring fellow bbs'ers to buy some - my view is that you will need to stomach this drop quite a bit more. to mid 1400's minimum, and likely much lower than that over the next ~6 months. gold has made a new annual high going on 11 consecutive years now, so a respite is simply due...
I'm debating on cashing out today and taking my lumps and sitting in cash before going long on SPY or something similar when we hit another low
i would expect gold to resume its bull market higher again sometime next year, but waiting for that all depends on your overall situation and goals. Regarding SPY, it's not my play, but in any case I'd prefer a tighter basket of blue chips w/ high dividend yields instead
