in this case though it's more like the german taxpayers bailing out their own private banks who hold greek debt. the best thing for both german and greek taxpayers would be a simple default, but it's the banks that need to be protected from losses
Well I was just trying to resolve any issues thru email since it seemed like you didn't feel comfortable discussing anything publicly.
Exactly. It has become absurd how they keep trying to avoid the inevitable. I haven't read any plans on what a structured default would look like but I have to imagine an amicable solution can be found that can spread out and minimize the losses. I know we live in a world where big institutions have to be saved from themselves, but someone has to take the loss on these bonds eventually. Just default over the weekend so I can clean up on my preferred mkt short. That sounds like a great plan to me
i have my doubts that it will be so easy. even 20 months ago a couple bankers i'm in touch with were already salivating at all the privatization opportunities soon to open up in greece. it would seem they will squeeze as much as possible that route before finally letting it fall apart for good
For you longer term guys it's getting close to start picking around some of the Europe ETFs. EWI is reach levels of absurdity with options pricing, but it is very illiquid. EWG looks interesting too....but it still feels like there will be more downside and that we will bang around these price levels for awhile. Secondly, there has clearly been no change in the trend down, so buying here would be early...but it is good to keep your eyes open when everyone is dumping. Granted all the long dated options have crazy prices, but you can create ratio put spreads that give you a huge breakeven range and would leave you long at the 2009 lows. Sell 2 Apr 2012 13 puts for .85 cents (the BxA is .75 x .95 so I am just picking the midpoint...I have no clue where the actual liquidity is) and buy 1 Apr 2012 16 put for 1.70. Outside of commissions you pay nothing and you would be long if EWG was below 13 at expiration. You don't start losing money on the trade until EWG drops below 10...pretty extreme. Overall, options skew seems pretty stupid. I mean lets look at this. The SPY Dec 70 puts are .43x.49. You can create a slew of ratio put spread trades that give you a credit and very wide range of profitability. Point being sentiment in the options market is very skewed to the downside. It feels like the market still wants to break lower, but things are becoming one sided in terms of sentiment. The market is very volatile right now, but not really moving.
By asking me how much I make? I don't need an email to tell you that's none of your damn business. You should get back to advising people around here to buy europe while Greece is on the eve of collapse. Don't forget to mention the kicker though, to always bet it on black. That's the edge!
Meow! Did you actually read what I wrote in that last post? I said buying now would be early, but it is good to start thinking about buying a country like Germany. The volatility and the skew aren't as high as I would like, but they are getting pretty big. Further, did you even understand the trade I was recommending? It is a bearish trade with long exposure almost 27% below where the market is trading now. ACTUAL MARKET RELATED STUFF--- If any of you guys are looking for decent and free options modeling software check out Options Oracle from Samoa Sky. It's not perfect, but it is a nice way to quickly look at your breakevens in an option trade.
For CX... Spoiler To anyone who is sick of the back and forth just move on. Man I have too much time on my hands Spoiler Yes I wanted to take that discussion to the email since you said you make 5x what I make in a year in 9 days. I thought that would be a better place to resolve the money side of things. I'm not one of the best like you proclaim to be, but I have paid taxes on $3.7 million from 2007 to 2010. So that would put your last 9 days at somewhere around $4.6 million. If you did that then I am in awe and extremely happy to hear that someone is killing it. I genuinely mean that. I reposted this for you earlier in the thread, but I'm guessing you didn't look. These are my old stats from Kershner Trading Group. I wish I had them for my whole career, but I don't. Check them out if you think I am faking.
I STRONGLY recommend that you take down this post. And also refrain from posting anymore of your personal information on a public message board. Seriously, for your own sake.
So do guys like you just make fun of the guys like me that buy and hold for retirement? I usually just keep putting my money in ETFs for when I retire in 30 years.
Apparently we have a couple of millionaires in this thread, however. I've been putting money into ETF's lately since we've been down so much. I FEEL like I'm doing the right thing, but it is hard to feel confident when the market is so volitile. I've been investing for 10 years, since I started working, and since I've stayed true to my investment plans, I've made a decent 7-8% a year on average, even with a couple of bad downturns. Do any of these pros in this thread have a long term outlook, like over the next 1, 2 5 years? Should I be cash heavy for another big drop, like we had in 2008? Am I good to be IN right now for the long haul or do the pros in this thread only concern themselves with short term moves up and down? I'm pretty diversified, I usually stick to ETFs, but when I do go into invidual stocks I go for boring stuff with strong balance sheets, earnings, low P/Es, and pay decent dividends. (Boring, I know)
I was serious about watching EWG for a potential long term buy. I believe it also pays out a 3.2% dividend. But I am not sure if that is a dividend or a capital distribution.
Not market related... Spoiler It's been on the message board for I don't know how long already. After trading at Kershner I am very up front about what I make and my trading. It's not like anyone is going to take my money and I have paid all my taxes fully. It's not as if I posted my ssn, birth cert, passport, car title, drivers license, tax returns, k-1's, bank accounts, or anything of that level. I just posted what amount to stats. I don't really care if someone sees it.
not market related Spoiler Also CX, I don't have a compliance dept at my job. I just trade at a small prop office now. You do have compliance.
Hey Robbie, I traded at Kershner in 2000. Just wondering what type of trading you're doing these days?
