My wife's cousin is in NYC in a low lying area. They told them to be prepared for high winds, no power and the bottom floor to flood. If it continues to weaken as it should I'll be surprised if she gets any of that.
So the National Hurricane Center and dozens of computer models are in the business of ramping up fear? Those damn mean computers.
It's a double edged sword for the government. If they take every precaution in the book and it ends up as a weak storm then they suck. If they are "eh" about the storm then people end up dying and millions of dollars in damage, they suck even more! More than anything, I'm jealous at how much rain east coast is getting. This is ridiculous. You know it's that bad here in TX.
Excellent link. Satellite imagery that updates every 15 minutes. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/hurricane_irene&image_width=1020&image_height=720
If you guys honestly expect the government and media not to freak out after Katrina, you are kidding yourselves. Katrina was a complete PR disaster highlighting a government that seemingly didn't care to quickly respond to a disaster of that magnitude. No government is going to make that mistake again and even if it means creating some unnecessary fear. This will be common at all levels of government for some time. No one wants another Katrina on their watch.
Yeah, but having people die from evacuations is dumber, when you are above sea level and the storm is only a cat 1. You must not have been in Houston, during Hurricane Rita. People are safer not evacuating, when the storm is not a major hurricane. If residents are miles away from the ocean or not surrounded by levees, it is safer to stay put. http://www.google.com/url?url=http:...uation&usg=AFQjCNG8cYK9t1wPqREuq6OClohXGJ6SSA
After that whole debacle, I'm hesitant than ever to evacuate for the next major storm. Good job government/media.
To refresh your memory, this was your quote: Oh and I love how they were cooking the books with the storm path. They started with direct hit on Florida then constantly moved east to keep up with the actual movement of the storm. "80 million people impacted" really ramped up the fear. Pure madness. The big, bad media didn't mention a direct hit on Florida out of thin air. They mentioned it because a week ago, that's exactly what the computer models used by the National Hurricane Center showed. Then, the track was slowly moved north because atmospheric conditions changed and models accurately depicted it. There's no exact science to hurricane forecasting, especially a week or more in advance. It's just too complex. Katrina was forecast to be a west Florida hurricane, up until a three days prior to landfall. Rita was projected to be a Freeport or south storm, and ended up making landfall in Louisiana. The idea that the media, the government, or whoever "cooked the books" with the storm path is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. They simply reported what the scientific/meteorological evidence was at the time.
Come on, keep it in perspective. Yes the whole thing was botched but we were just coming off of Katrina and at one point Rita was a category 5 storm that some models had directly hitting Houston. If you weren't ****ting your pants then, I dont know what to tell you. I was in Austin at the time but I was terrified for my family back home. Yes the thing weakened and ended up hitting south of Houston, but the government didn't do it to **** with people. Also a lot of people who didnt need to evacuate (and weren't told to) did so anyway because of Katrina. This was a combination of the city government reacting as it did and people being hysterical after Katrina.
Irene was a 120 mile/hour Category 3 just two days ago, and was forecast to remain a major hurricane until landfall. (For reference, 125 mph Cat 3 was what both Katrina and Rita were.) Thankfully for NC, the storm weakened on its approach and likely spared them major damage. That said, the media and government officials didn't know that, and forecasts didn't show it happening, either. They had to deal with the information they had at the time, and waiting until 12 hours before landfall (when the weakening trend began) would be too late. You're right in that evacuating folks from a Cat 1 creates more damage than the storm presents... but keep in mind that no one knew that (in this case) when decisions had to be made.
When you have people in New York city evacuating for a cat 3 prediction 5 days away, it is an overreaction. There is a huge difference on the impact of storm surge on an island or beach, being miles away from the ocean. Katrina and Rita were entering warming water, where it was unlikely to weaken. I read a sensible forecast by the wsj that said the hurricane would weaken as it hit the cooler waters of the north. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904009304576530902704084320.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The link you posted (of the traffic accident) was from North Carolina, so I thought you were talking about evacuations there, not New York. As far as New York evacuations, the predictions have been for a Category 1 storm by the time Irene makes it up that way. I don't think anyone expected a Cat 3 in New York. With New York, it's fairly simple - the city has a map of areas that would likely flood from a direct hit from a Category 1 storm, Cat 2, Cat 3, and so on. Only the areas that would be flooded by a Cat 1 storm were evacuated, and that's still what NYC is likely to receive. Not sure what's wrong with that policy.
NYC only called for evacuations in areas they call zone A and that was probably still is a good call. Dr Masters blog from two hours ago.
Someone just pulled his pants down during a live broadcast on the weather channel. Multiple videos on YouTube already...can't see much. Search "Naked guy on the Weather Channel during Irene"
