No, but then I'd have to kill ya. 1225-30, and then 1255-60, are the only two areas. Not touching anything else, below or above. Hedge funds. And as an individual trader it would be just enough to get you carried out. Either way, not touching it. For a daytrade it's another story, might be some congestion at 1210 for a day, before breaking it later. They might make it look just weak enough to suck in some shorts there.
Wow, looking for every opportunity and every bounce to short AAPL now. Jobs made that company, saved it from bankruptcy, they are nothing without him. Especially now that AAPL is making the EXACT same mistakes that almost killed the Mac back when it was a dominant player. Closed vs open source of GOOG. Saturating the market and alienating their customer base by coming out with a new Iphone/Ipad every year, or less. Great way to make a quick buck, as they obviously have and are doing, since there is such a great demand for their product, and great way to pump their stock price, but in the long run it will kill their brand. At this point AAPL is a fad, they have no proprietary advantage over their competitors, except for their brand. By saturating the market every year, that is a great way to lose their one ace in the hole. No doubt they will try to drag AAPL up in the short/medium run for one last hurrah, since I am positive a whole bucket list of hedge funds are trapped in it long now. Don't be surprised when analysts start popping up to defend AAPL's stock price, saying how it is overdone, that losing Jobs is no big deal. Once they pump it up to an acceptable price to exit, which is to dump it on the unsuspecting public as usual, it will be all over. For long term investors, I think a pairs trade of equal parts long GOOG, and equal parts short AAPL, from this point forward is a great market neutral investment.
You are thinking waaay too retail with your conspiracy thoughts about what the "analysts" will do. That being said you may be right that Apple is oversaturated, but to say they are just trying to make a quick buck by coming out with new products every year makes absolutely no sense. Almost every single publicly traded company in every industry comes out with new designs for their product lines every year. You act as if Apple is the only company to come out with new designs each year. Further, Apple has made superior designed products. That is why they are a "fad". They aren't a "fad" solely because of some sort of mania to own their product. Anyhow, Apple TV was supposed to be their next big venture. We will see if Tim Cook can execute on this plan. Further, you act like Tim Cook hasn't been performing many of the CEO duties over the past year and in the past when Jobs was sick. Jobs has been grooming him for his position. Also, Jobs will still be involved with the company and will be on the board of directors. Apple still has a ton of momentum. Shorting here is premature and careless. Maybe once they falter on an earnings report or if they decide to make a nonsense major acquisition then it will be time to jump on the short train. Apple is cheap when you take out cash, so as things stand Jobs leaving the company at some point in time was already priced into the stock.
That's no conspiracy, that's a fact jack. You are right that it isn't some sort of mania. It is a "fad" though not because their products are better designed, it is because they bring innovation to the table and designed it first. That is why they are the golden boy in the eyes of consumers, despite being ripped off every year when what they just bought just became obsolete. Problem is, innovation just resigned. Never said to naked short it here. I said shorting every rally and pop. The only momentum it has, as far as its stock goes, is the momentum to let the hedge funds out that are stuck. Shorting AAPL here and long GOOG as a pairs is something I like now though. Once those things happen, everyone and their mothers will know to jump ship, and their stock will be 50% off from where its at today. If you are a long term investor maybe you should wait until then just to be safe. Personally, I sell tops. As for Jobs leaving being priced in, I guess that's why it got pummeled when the news broke?
No that's not the facts. You do understand that analysts are not that high ranking in the investment bank and banking structure, correct? They are actually pretty low on the totem pole. Further, the analysts from one company aren't calling the analysts from another company and colluding trying to keep stock prices up. And seriously what exactly are the "analysts" going to do with Apple? Are they going to get MORE bullish? The stock is already rated as a buy or strong buy from 53 of the 57 analysts who cover it. Analysts do make bs ratings to maintain good relationships with a company so their firm will get deals (secondaries, debt offerings, spinoffs, etc.) from that company in the future. You are confusing that with collusion. Yes innovation just resigned. He was one of the best CEO's of all time. But he also has had a succession plan in place for years and AAPL's direction for the next 18-24 months has already been planned out by Jobs. It's going to take awhile for the loss of Steve Jobs to filter down. Fair enough. Let me know when you put that trade on cause it sounds like a waste of time since you are shorting the leader and going long the laggard. Further, pairs trades usually just suck and tie up too much capital. BTW since Tim Cook has been running day to day operations the past 8 months AAPL has outperformed GOOG big time. AAPL is up like 65% and GOOG is up like 18%. What's your analysis on the MMI merger GOOG just did? Did that make you more bullish on GOOG? Don't get me wrong I do like GOOG as a safe investment, but why not just get long GOOG? Anyhow...you may be correct and your trade may work out, but I don't see how you can just put that trade on and expect it to work if you have no way of defining your risk within that trade. LOL! Cocky much? You should really keep telling yourself that. It will be great for your trading. ...And yes that sounds like a great strategy for a long term investor...buy a stock that is crashing 50% and has no real leadership or plans in place by your account of the situation. Let's see when you posted all this AAPL was down 5%....not exactly getting pummeled. Actually, that would be pretty small considering how big Steve Jobs is to Apple. Now that the pre-market has open with more people at their trading desk it is being pummeled down 2%. Anyhow, who cares....I'm still going to be putting on range bound options trades for AAPL and selling puts during GOOG selloffs to support levels. Jobs leaving is a disappointing event, but it doesn't change things much over the next couple months imo. We will see how things go.
Steve Jobs should announce that Apple is going to buy Bank of America, rename it iBank, and put Jobs in as CEO there. It would create one of the biggest stock market rises in history as everyone decides all our economic problems are solved in one fell swoop...
What are you talking about? Analysts work for a firm. The firm also holds positions. When a firm really wants to get out of a position, it sometimes hands one of the low level analysts a little piece of paper that says pump up this stock. The firm then proceeds to dumps its position all over the unsuspecting suckers who just thought analysts were worth a damn. That's a gimmick that Wall st has ran since its inception. Where the hell have you been? You do work on Wall st, don't you?
Yeah analysts really have a strong influence on the market. I mean they pretty much rate everything a buy so that really makes the market go up all the time, right? All those strong buys on BAC really held that piece of crap up. But seriously, the only time an analyst will really influence a stock is when they issue a sell rating....not a buy rating like you are talking about. Everyone rates everything a buy. Do you have any friends that are analysts? And no I don't work on Wall Street, but I am a professional trader in Austin, TX. I don't know everything about how the market works, but I do know you have a lot to learn so keep your mind open.
Of course it didn't hold BAC up. Probably because all the institutions and hedge funds were dumping the crap out of it while still giving it a buy rating to sucker in, well, the suckers. That's my point. Yea I have friends that are analysts. And no you don't know everything about how the market works.
Do you seriously believe that large amounts of money was following those buy ratings into mindlessly buying? Like 80% of the market is rated as a buy by analysts. Just give it up. If a fund wants to get out of a large position they will use the options market or dark pools. If they think another random buy rating will really prop up the market then they are clearly mistaken....like you are. And clearly you don't either. BTW how long have you been trading?
Since '97. But let's not make this a who's **** is bigger contest. You clearly know much much more than me. BTW, what does it take to call yourself a "professional trader" these days? $5k down and some slapstick bull**** license? Just guessing here. Getting warmer? I'd call that a hobby.
I don't know why I had to get licensed, but I have my series 7, 55, and 63 from the first prop trading firm I was at. I didn't pay for them, but you have to be sponsored for them for whatever reason. I know my 55 allows me to trade nasdaqs. The tests I had to take for them don't remotely relate to trading and might as well just be hazing for prop traders....but hey it sounds cool calling myself professional lol. I don't know how I would classify trading in my life now. I started at my old firm back in March '04 and I was trying to learn about the market on my own for about a year prior to that. I don't think I took a day off for like 5 years, but I don't really know for sure. It was everything for me for the longest time, then I got burned out a bit from bs at my other place and other personal life stuff. Now I guess trading is more of a laid back job at the new prop firm I trade at. I still like it a lot, but I don't completely emotional and obsess over it like I used to. I guess I have been getting into things more due to the volatility explosion and we have a new platform here at the office with a ton more options for order routing and it has already cut my commissions by like 40%. So that is fun to play with. That being said I still do very well at trading and I've got like way too many positions on right now...so it's not exactly a hobby. I guess it could be a very expensive hobby if I treated it like one :grin:. I know you weren't asking for a biography but you got it cause I felt like writing.
Hey, no problem. Let's just say, we look at the market from a very different perspective. More power to you if you are profitable. I have a few friends in the prop business, a few friends who own prop shops, and I know it is tough as hell. In fact, most those places are snake pits trying to lure college grads, churn and burn operations. So to make it this long and do well with their commission/payout structure is a great feat, if what I am told about them is to be believed. So props to you, heh, no pun intended. With that said, I wouldn't call myself clueless about the market. In fact it made me chuckle when you called me retail.
Can anybody say short squeeze? Rallying with less than light volume today tells me this thing is on its last legs. But like I said before, breaking its previous high of 1209 should give it one last little pop to squeeze out the weak bears, and maybe catch a few more bulls chasing. That gap fill was a nice daytrade but again not the kind of one day move I am looking for, and it worked for exactly one day. I'm still liking 1225-30, and like 1255-60 even more. We should be able to get to one of those before the end of the week. Let's see if they are just random numbers like some think.
I've already started taking some feeler trades by selling some weekly out of the money calls in the QQQ and SPY. I agree that in this thin trade this week we might see a continued short squeeze until the end of the month/after labor day. Oh and if you want to see a nice kick in the balls short trade I am in check out WM, WCN, and RSG. Lol luckily I have longs counterbalancing that **** storm.
oh and i am long 6000 qid overnight from near the closing price as well....lol i don't feel great about it but after i heard our news guys at work completely spazzing out on how much the nasdaq had been up in the past few days i had to take the trade. oh well i've made worse trades before!:grin:
