A good chunk of the Republican base probably want to secede from the Union, so Perry's secessionist talk is likely a positive in the primaries.
I completely disagree. If Perry ever gets to the point of being the clear front-runner, most of the free passes will go out the window. Remember, he just entered the race. This rush by some of you to anoint Perry as the GOP nominee is very premature. You'll see.
I confidently predicted Perry as the nominee about a month ago here when the poll here still had more saying he wouldn't run than that he would. I've offered about three tip jar bets and no one has bitten. You want in? You can set the price.
I think Perry will beat Romney. Who else is there? Perry is nutty enough for the Bachman supporters, yet appeals to the still controlling corporate wing of the GOP. Batman do you think Perry can beat Obama? The economy will still be bad and Obama can't project any of the ability to feel other's pain that Clinton or even Dubya could project. Maybe it is just me, but his speeches seem like empty rhetoric. Sadly I'm starting to think Perry can beat Obama.. Instead of appealing to a movement filled with the audacity of hope, Obama's chance is to appeal once again to a bunch of dispirited folks who voted for the hip young black guy thinking he would be bolder. Of course, he also puts most of his efforts into courting his precious couple of a percent of "independents" who go back in forth and can't decide from one election to the other-- Dubya or Gore; Obama or McCain etc. Obama preferred to cut deals with the elite in back rooms instead.
When he's the last man standing, and campaigning to lead the country, that clip of him promoting breaking from the union is going to play over, and over, and over, and over, and over... It will be his <object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KDwODbl3muE?version=3&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KDwODbl3muE?version=3&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="349" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object> moment.
It will be completely forgotten by then. It will matter about as much as Michele Obama's gaffe about how she could 'finally feel proud to be an American.' It won't get half the play of either Bill Ayers or Jeremiah Wright. And it's not like he came out for secession; someone in the crowd called for it and he said it might not be a bad idea if things kept going the way they were. It barely rises to the level of non-issue. There are much, much better things to hit Perry on. Neither Obama or his team is stupid or desperate enough to take this tiny thing and run it repeatedly on ads.
They won't touch it. The media, however, is another story. "Tiny thing"? How many things have blown up and killed campaigns before that you would qualify as a "tiny thing"? My guess is a lot.
Could he? Sure. Will he? Way too early to begin to predict. Were I to predict now I'd say it would be very close. But I do expect Perry would be considerably tougher to beat than Romney. And of course Bachmann is the GOP's McGovern, but with that pesky clinical insanity. If she caught real fire and somehow successfully defied the GOP establishment to take the nomination, she'd lose by a historic margin. Perry is the GOP's best shot, with the possible exception of Jeb Bush who isn't running. And he will be the nominee. I disagree with a lot of your criticism of Obama, though I can understand the sentiment. I do think Obama had a great mandate and should have at least tried to use it, but he also inherited the most intractable, filibuster-happy oppo party in history as well as a looming economic depression and two wars. I'd love it if he'd stand up for what he believe in more. I'd love it if he used the bully pulpit to explain to American voters that his policies are in their interests and in line with their desires as expressed through polling. But getting things done? That takes Congress too. And the Republicans in Congress have done an excellent job at an audacious and unprecedented strategy: obstruct everything til the last dog dies and demonize the president at every turn with lies about his religion, his legislation (death panels were only the tip of the lying iceberg), his ideology (socialist my ass - he's a center right moderate) and his very citizenship. He has been fighting for his life and, more to the point, American lives since his first day in office.
By calling it a tiny thing I am predicting that no one will care about it and few will even remember it by election day. I am not aware of anything that nobody actually cared about ever blowing up a campaign. We're both just guessing. My guess is it will be a total non-factor. Your guess is it will be a big enough issue to possibly kill his campaign. We won't know who was right for more than a year.
http://nationsreportcard.gov/ The NAEP is the only public school test given nationwide that records race and income. http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d09/tables/dt09_106.asp drop out rates (the most recent are 06-07) If you need me to explain what the data says then simply ask. Please spare me your 'by all accepted studies' nonsense. People who use such language are always full of ****.
Don't quite agree. Many Republicans outside the state of Texas will not like his stance. I don't think that it will destroy him, but I do think that it will be pointed out and discussed a great deal.
Ah! I see the difference. You're talking social promotion and skewed data. I'm talking about making smart kids. Sorry about the confusion.
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Don't know what NAEP test is, don't think I've ever heard of it. Though I wouldn't be surprised I've actually taken it and forgot, it's definitely not on most people's radars as an important test. Also HS graduation rates are not a good measure of how good a school is. I'd be interested to see the data normalized for school system just pushing kids through without actually doing a correct amount of teaching. I would much rather use the average ACT and SAT scores to evaluate education system because it is still one of the better measure of success at the next level (and how prepared you are for it). And Texas falls behind. Another way to look at it is if one state fails 10% of Students but prepares the other 90% for well for college, while the other fails 2% but only 70% are prepared for college, would you really say that the second system is better? The UT electrical engineering program loses 2/3 of the Freshmen class by graduation but I bet you it's one of the best degrees for the real world. That said, I think what we need to strive for is high graduation rate AND an education system that actually prepares you.
