Anyone have a clue if we've seen the bottom yet? I'm still sitting on some cash and thinking of investing some of it in stocks. My experience in the past is that when I THINK we've seen the market at its nadir, I'm way late.
Not bad. Fade was obviously a homerun. Missed the long in the morning, but got the flush after the Fed. We hit a major level 1102 on the cash, my average around 1110, still holding on to some to see if it has some legs for a few days. Got in small for the long though, still don't like catching falling knives, but the level was significant enough. Looking to load up on a short if we can get this up to 1250-1300. I talk to Mango a bit during the day from time to time and exchange some ideas, especially the last few when it has been volatile.
Who knows what the future will bring but the past has shown that when volatility has approached 50 then you are probably gonna be ok in the long term if you are buying and holding. I was telling friends yesterday that it was as good of a time to buy as you are gonna get if you are looking to dollar cost average into longer term positions. I added a pretty big chunk to my personal account by buying a levered REIT (real estate income trust) etf yesterday and today. I think this long term stable rate environment will be good for them and some of tjpse guys saw massive price declines. You also might want to check out the mortgage REITs like nly, agnc, hts, and a few others for big dividend payers that should do well with the Fed's action today of capping rates and providing a stable rate environment. Imo this up move will fade some tomorrow since it was basically a 60 degree slope up lol. I do think we will bang around this area for a bit and buying some of whatever you feel like in this very large range isn't a bad idea.
What kind of bottom? For the next week or two? Probably. If you want to invest, I'd wait at least a few months. Looking for low 900s in SPX.
Would do people think of RIMM? They can market the fact even the British government can't crack them.
This last 3 day stretch certainly has to be in my top 5 3 day periods with today probably being a top 10 day and I didn't even trade that aggressively today either. If I was aggressive as yesterday I probably would have been up twice what I was...but I am certainly happy with my trading. I'm already short some REITs and some SPY and long some SPXU. I hope we gap higher cause I will load up short. The trading at the close today reminded me of the same setup back in 08 where they would blow the REITs out to the upside and downside in the last hour of trading. I made a ton of money with that trade...but it is just a matter of holding it and that can be very tough in a volatile market. We will see what happens tomorrow.
I don't think there is a reason to be a hero and buy RIMM. That being said everyone hates it and it is very cheap. However management doesn't seem to be in touch with reality. I'd just buy Apple if you want something good. Apple is cheap in terms of earnings relative to growth and even cheaper when you back out the 100 billion in cash they will have by the end of the year.
Thanks, Robbie. Yeah, I'm looking relatively long term, and at my age, I'm a bit more cautious than I used to be, at least in this area.
I think qnx is a pretty strong embedded platform. They got a lot of cash. They are trading at a f p/e of 4 or 5 even with their revised estimates. At this price they have to be a takeover candidate.
so you guys think it'll be a good idea to wait a couple months to start buying some stocks for long term? market will go down some more?
well looks like we are just gonna gap it down. i was hoping for a gap up so i could short more but not gonna happen. oh well at least i got something.
Made my first day-trade mistake today. I bought Nvidia at the open, even though my dad (trader) had worn me not to, I wanted to be the wise-ass. I have a turbo on it, didn't sell yet, down -20%, hopefully it will get back up again, but I doubt it will pass the open. Try to cut my losses now.
Lesson 1: Don't buy things gapping up 20%, especially for a "daytrade". Lesson 2: Don't hold your losers until you are -20% in the hole, especially for a "daytrade". Lesson 3: Daddy always knows best, especially when it comes to "daytrading".
How did you lose 20%? It's only down a point from where you bought. Lesson 4 ....don't trade earnings if you have no clue what's going on. It's a great way to lose your ass.
I was stupid enough to have a market-order, which explains the Lesson 1. These are good lessons though, and definitely won't make them anymore when i'll be using bigger amounts of money. This was a "test-drive", i'm losing $100, won't make the same mistakes when I invest 100x that cash.
No problem. It wasn't me. I wish I had that kind of swing, but this was just one cfer passing on the info to my fellow cfers. He doesn't have any more word on the street for now. But he told me to look out for possible nastiness next Monday and Tuesday. He told me to keep my eye out for ways to go short and to definitely not be holding any long positions over the weekend. He's a day trader so they are usually out of the market on the weekend so you have to think about his background when considering that statement. Anyway he said if he ends up holding anything over the weekend it will be small positions in some reverse ETFs while looking for possible openings Monday/Tuesday to go short on the futures contracts. But more then likely he's going to stand pat looking for possible short entries Monday/Tuesday. Edit: 8.12.11 3:50 cst After the close he said next week is looking uncertain, but the charts are saying shorter support is in for now. He said to look for small positions to go long for now. Just in and out. Nothing big until it works it's uncertainty out, but to look out if a reversal to the short side happens on the second half of next week and if so it might be big.
