I belive the acquisitions of Cosart, Clemens, and Ober-something make using the #1 pick on a pitcher less of a concern. Doesn't mean they will select the local kid for sure, but if he's the best position player prospect available, it makes the most sense. The only concerns I would have are of course signability (he better not want Harper or Strasberg money... but they are the last two #1 picks), as well as his overall maturity (Galveston Ball is not known for producing many prospects of any kind, and he hasn't had much limelight thrown at him yet).
Do you think that IF there's a Harper/Strasburg potential transformational prospect on the board, we might pass on him for signability reasons? Seems like you support that kind of decision? To me, that really can't happen anymore. We can't afford to set the franchise back by not paying for guys that could be head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the class.
If we are NOT willing to sign the better prospects, then our so-called rebuild is a farce and the Astros are certain to be a basement dweller for a very long time.
I didn't say that... I just think any #1 pick is always looking to break the bank, and the 2012 draft (much like the 2011 draft) likely will not have a sure-fire #1 candidate. There is no Harper or Strasburg. Thus, unfortunately the Astros are going to have to be in the unfortunate position to offer a fair market value salary, but below what the Nats paid. What did the Pirates have to give that pitcher this year? I agree that if they draft the guy, they can't not sign him. They also can't limit who they draft simply because of that reason... but if Williams comes out and says "I want to get paid... all teams that can't afford me, don't even bother drafting me...." then he could conceivably price himself out of Crane's budget (and end up with a big market team). Remember, its not just him we have to sign... its the #1 pick in every round that could be something 'special'.
Maybe it's me, but when I hear Williams say that he wanted to sit out the rest of the game just so he could finish 3-3 with 3 home runs, it raises a red flag. I know he's young, but that doesn't sound like a winner's mentality. Get out there and bat.
I don't know, man. He said he figured the odds of him hitting a fourth homerun weren't very good, so he *kind of* wanted to sit out the rest of the game. Instead of saying "What do you think the odds are of me hitting another one? Watch this", he *kind of* wanted to sit. I agree that we don't know the full context, but it seems kinda revealing. Again though, he was 16 at the time, so I can understand that he might grow past that kind of attitude. Not saying I wouldn't like him on the team, just that it worried me.
I dont know about you, but I made idiotic remarks every other sentence when I was 16. And what I meant by context is we dont know if he was being series or jovial. Or whether it was a response to someone elses remark, and how that remark was phrased. I wouldnt worry about it or be concerned one bit.
I know it will mean absolutely nothing, but Nick Williams committed to Texas today. At least he'll maybe be wearing a burnt orange t-shirt when he's drafted in the top 5 next year.
I still make idiotic remarks, sometimes not even every other sentence :grin: As long as he plays hard, he's welcome on the Astros.
My personal philosophy is that pitching prospects should always be measured more in quantity rather than quality. That is, I'd rather have 5-6 sold pitching prospects over 1-2 stud pitching prospects. The injury risk with pitchers make drafting them #1 a tenuous proposition at best. As an organization that has little room for mistakes, I really hope we don't take a pitcher with #1 unless he's simply far beyond what any other prospects has to offer. Simple version: drafting pitcher = bust risk + higher injury risk. drafting position player = bust risk = lower injury risk. So with comparable players, I'd always take the position player.
If they take Appel a rotation that looks like this would be a big step back toward respectability in 2013/2014. Cosart Appel Lyles Norris They will probably get the 1st pick in 2012. Is that draft deep in pitching/hitting? Are there any great SS/C/3rd base prospects? Depending on good next yrs draft crop is would tell me how I would draft this yr.
I still favor 3B Trey Williams over OF Nick Williams. I like Trey's approach at the plate much better, and he fits the organizational needs more (you don't draft for need, but all else being equal it can be the tipping point).
The Astros’ tragic number dropped to 14 Monday. After a Baltimore loss to the Yankees, any combination of 14 Astros’ losses or Baltimore wins will clinch the #1 pick in next June’s draft for the Astros.
Its a no-brainer you go position player over pitcher in the top 10. Keith Law or one of the ESPN writers wrote a great article about pitchers v position players in the draft early first round. Our chances of having a player pan out are better. Gimme one of the Williams decent contract and potential for a stud in our lineup 2014-2015!!!!!!!!!
Got this from another forum. They copy and paste it from baseball of America, which isn't free. But anyways. I wasn't high on Mark Appel but if they are comparing him to Justin Verlander I all for it. We can finally draft a player with high velocity instead of trading for one. But his numbers from college doesn't look great. Nick Williams is already slipping in the mocks. Hopefully it happens for real next year and we can get him in the 2nd round. Doubt it though. But here are the articles. CHICAGO—The Astros weren't expected to finish higher than fifth place in the National League Central, but they didn't envision the bottom dropping out quite like this. Houston set a franchise record with its 97th loss—on Sept. 11, with 16 games remaining in the season. If there's a bright spot, it's that the Astros were so bad that they didn't need to make any pretense of playing for the present. By sending Michael Bourn to the Braves and Hunter Pence to the Phillies at the trade deadline, Houston gave its farm system a much-needed infusion of talent. The return included a first baseman/outfielder who immediately became their best position prospect (Jonathan Singleton) and three arms who rank as their top hopes on the mound (Jarred Cosart, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer). Another consolation prize is the first selection in the 2012 draft, which Houston had all but locked up with two weeks to go. Next year's crop doesn't contain a Stephen Strasburg (2009) or Bryce Harper (2010), let alone a half-dozen worthy No. 1 candidates (2011), but it's always nice to have the pick of the litter. The 2012 draft is still nine months away, but we're already looking ahead. On Page 53, you'll find our first official prospect list for next year's draft. Here you'll find an early look at how the first 10 picks could unfold, based on mid-September standings. 1. Astros: While we rank Stanford righthander Mark Appel as the No. 1 prospect, he hasn't separated himself from the rest of the pack. Astros scouting director Bobby Heck couldn't make his preference for up-the-middle talent any more clearer, as his top picks in four drafts with the club have been a catcher (Jason Castro), a shortstop (Jiovanni Mier), a second baseman (Delino DeShields Jr.) and a center fielder (George Springer). That could lead Houston to Arizona State's Deven Marrero, who might have been the first shortstop drafted in 2011 had he been eligible as a sophomore. Marrero is a much better bet to produce offensively than Mier or Jonathan Villar (part of last year's Roy Oswalt trade) and is just as good defensively. True all-around shortstops are one of baseball's rarest commodities, especially in the draft. As for the rest of the top 10 . . . 2. Orioles: For much of the last 25 years, Baltimore's best starting pitcher has been a Stanford product (Jeff Ballard, Mike Mussina, Jeremy Guthrie). That tradition can continue with Appel, who has drawn Justin Verlander comparisions for his overpowering stuff and still-in-progress command. Verlander also was a No. 2 overall pick. 3. Twins: Minnesota hasn't been able to keep Joe Mauer healthy behind the plate, making it impossible to get full value out of his $184 million contract. Florida catcher Mike Zunino would allow Mauer to move to a less taxing position and provide much-needed power to the Twins lineup. 4. Mariners: Seattle desperately needs offense, and Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton has the best power/speed combination among the 2012s. Buxton also has a strong arm and would be the Mariners' heir apparent to Ichiro in right field. 5. Royals: Kansas City's priority in the 2011 draft was an advanced pitcher, but none of its top four choices made it to the fifth overall pick. The Royals will have a shot at any college arm besides Appel, and Georgia Southern righthander Chris Beck showed the potential for three plus pitches in the Cape Cod League this summer. 6. Padres: The Jed Hoyer regime has used first-round choices on high-ceiling prep pitchers in its first two drafts (Karsten Whitson, Joe Ross) and can look slightly to the north for a third. Los Angeles area righthander Lucas Giolito has easy mid-90s velocity and a power curve. 7. Cubs: After injuries and ineffectiveness plagued many of its pitchers at the major and minor league levels, Chicago needs help on the mound. Louisiana State righthander Kevin Gausman, a draft-eligible sophomore, can provide that with a lively 92-96 mph fastball and a deceptive changeup. 8. Pirates: Pittsburgh hasn't gotten consistent all-around production from a shortstop since Jay Bell in the 1990s, which makes Louisiana high schooler Gavin Cecchini a good fit. His bat is similar to that of his brother Garin, who signed with the Red Sox for $1.31 million as a 2010 fourth-rounder, and Gavin is more athletic and will be able to remain at short. 9. Athletics: There's a power outage in Oakland, which has had just three 20-homer hitters in the last four seasons. That could lead the A's to Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache, who led NCAA Division I with 30 homers in the spring and ranked second in the Cape with six longballs this summer. 10. Marlins: The Marlins system has fallen on hard times, with little in the way of immediate help among hitting or starting pitchers. Florida lefthander Brian Johnson has advanced feel for a solid three-pitch mix, so he could help solve both problems. Interestingly, he may have more upside as a first baseman with well above-average power potential from the left side of the plate. 1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Tall and lean with a fastball up to 99 mph and a true slider—Justin Verlander upside. 2. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona State Rare college up-the-middle talent that is a quality defender and complete player. 3. Mike Zunino, c, Florida Quality defensive backstop shows middle-of-the-order potential and excellent intangibles. 4. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. Workhorse frame with power arsenal including mid-90s fastball and hammer curveball. 5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS, Baxley, Ga. Explosive athlete shows the potential to become a five-tool center fielder. 6. Chris Beck, rhp, Georgia Southern Physical frame with a fastball that touches 96 and a power breaking ball. 7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana State Flame-throwing draft-eligible sophomore shows potential for three plus pitches. 8. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS, Birmingham Missed some of the summer with mono but has a beautiful lefthanded stroke and five-tool potential. 9. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS, Lake Charles, La. Baseball rat is a better shortstop than his brother Garin was, similar hitting ability from the right side. 10. Lucas Sims, rhp, Brookwood HS, Snellville, Ga. Sits 92-93 mph with fastball and gets as high as 95 with one of the best curveballs in the class. 11. Brian Johnson, lhp/1b, Florida Legit two-way talent. Workhorse build and three-pitch mix on the mound, light-tower power as a hitter. 12. Victor Roache, of, Georgia Southern Muscular outfielder has huge power from the right side but will need to show he can adjust. 13. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. Long, loose lefthander fills up the strike zone with quality three-pitch mix. 14. Walker Weickel, rhp, Olympia HS, Orlando Steep downhill plane on 91-93 mph fastball thanks to projectable 6-foot-6, 200-pound frame. 15. Hunter Virant, lhp, Camarillo (Calif.) HS Has only been pitching for a year but shows potential for four plus pitches. 16. Lance McCullers Jr., rhp, Jesuit HS, Tampa Electric stuff including a fastball that gets up to 98, but probably winds up in bullpen like his father. 17. Trey Williams, 3b, Valencia HS, Santa Clarita, Calif. Has explosive strength and good bloodlines—his dad, Eddie, played 10 years in the big leagues. 18. Kenny Diekroeger, ss, Stanford An X-factor after a disappointing spring and not playing this summer, but the tools are still there. 19. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, San Francisco Changeup needs to develop, but has a sturdy frame and power arsenal. 20. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad., Gurabo, P.R. Pro body with smooth infield actions; a little raw at the plate, but shows strength and power potential. 21. Nick Williams, of, Ball HS, Galveston, Texas Shows a lot of rawness in his game, but has athleticism and bat speed that can't be taught. 22. Marcus Stroman, rhp, Duke Small, 5-foot-9 frame, but electric 93-96 mph fastball and nasty slider. 23. Michael Wacha, rhp, Texas A&M Quick worker relies on 90-93 mph fastball and well above-average changeup. 24. Ty Hensley, rhp, Santa Fe HS, Edmond, Okla. Broad frame with strong legs, 91-94 mph fastball and hard curveball and a good feel for the game. 25. Travis Jankowski, of, Stony Brook Live-bodied center fielder has above-average speed and a good feel for hitting. 26. Lewis Brinson, of, Coral Springs (Fla.) HS Florida recruit is built like Cameron Maybin and has similar upside. 27. Nolan Sanburn, rhp, Arkansas Draft-eligible sophomore overpowers hitters with fastball that reaches 98 and hard, 81-85 mph slider. 28. Josh Elander, c, Texas Christian Defense needs work, but his righthanded power potential to all fields is hard to ignore. 29. Jesse Winker, of, Olympia HS, Orlando Polished lefthanded bat with loft power but will be limited to left field or first base. 30. Joey Gallo, 3b, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas Huge power but doesn't make consistent contact and probably ends up at first base. 31. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS, Lafayette, La. Built like a fullback but is an above-average runner that shows loft power from the left side of the plate. 32. Taylore Cherry, rhp, Butler HS, Vandalia, Ohio Huge, 6-foot-9, 260-pound frame, but has effortless delivery, good body control and three-pitch mix. 33. Carson Kelly, 3b/rhp, Westview HS, Portland Good athlete shows power potential at the plate and heavy 90-92 mph fastball on the mound. 34. Corey Seager, ss, Northwest Cabarrus HS, Concord, N.C. Kyle's younger brother is a lot more physical, but probably joins him at third base. 35. Richie Shaffer, 1b/3b, Clemson Big-time power from the right side, but is stretched defensively at third base despite cannon arm. 36. Stephen Piscotty, 3b/of, Stanford Cape Cod League batting champ has smooth swing and all-field approach. 37. Albert Almora, of, Mater Academy, Hialeah Gardens, Fla. Cousin of Manny Machado has good outfield instincts, advanced approach at the plate and lots of polish. 38. Branden Kline, rhp, Virginia Team USA's closer has a projectable frame to go with a low-90s fastball and developing breaking ball. 39. Jake Barrett, rhp, Arizona State Second-round pick by the Blue Jays in 2009 was up to 98 mph last season. 40. Addison Russell, 3b, Pace (Fla.) HS Choppy actions in the field and at the plate, but he makes the plays and shows big righthanded power. 41. Tyler Naquin, of, Texas A&M Thin frame with line-drive approach; may have the speed for center field but not much experience there. 42. Duane Underwood, rhp, Pope HS, Marietta, Ga. Athletic righty has low-90s fastball that touches 95, good changeup and an inconsistent curveball. 43. Brandon Thomas, of, Georgia Tech Physical athlete has well above-average speed and some power from both sides of the plate. 44. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon (Ohio) HS Pitches at 89-92 mph right now with a slider and a changeup—big upside thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame. 45. Rio Ruiz, 3b, Bishop Amat HS, La Puente, Calif. Prototypical third base profile—athletic with a strong arm and some power potential from the left side. 46. Lex Rutledge, lhp, Samford Quick-armed lefty mid-90s heat power slider out of the bullpen, not as electric in starting role. 47. Jameis Winston, of/rhp, Hueytown (Ala.) HS Long and lean switch-hitter is a superb athlete committed to Florida State as a quarterback. 48. Rhett Wiseman, of, BB&N HS, Cambridge, Mass. excellent makeup still learning how tools translate into game action. 49. Anthony Alford, of, Petal (Miss.) HS is still raw but has impressive package of speed and strength. 50. Hudson Randall, rhp, Florida Lacks overpowering fastball has excellent feel for pitching and superb command of four pitches.
As a huge Astros fan, this season is/was really tough. The silver lining (if there is one) is hopefully we can use this historically bad season to speed up the re-building process. The talent we received in the past few trades (Oswalt, Lance, Pence, and Bourn) has added a lot of talent to our farm system, and if we can hit a few homeruns with our top picks from next year's draft, we can have legitimately great talent in our minors, and a lot to look forward to. I understand that it is really early to start looking at potential draft picks, and a lot can happen between now and the draft, but here is a pitcher and a fielder that should at least be on our radar, and I believe they have been previously discussed: Pitcher Mark Appel from Stanford could be the stud power pitcher with ace-level stuff that could anchor our starting rotation for years to come. I read that although he is a college pitcher, he is still pretty raw (I guess his stuff is not yielding as dominating performances as expected, I am not sure), but his stuff is being compared to Justin Verlander (who very well might be the AL MVP this year, in addition to the Cy Young winner). If we go pitching, and that is definitely a big if, as Heck's draft tendencies suggest he will go with up-the-middle position players (see Castro, Mier, DeShields Jr., and Springer) this does not look likely, he is definitely someone we should keep our eye on during the year. I know drafting pitchers #1 overall is a lot riskier than drafting position players, but I think this could be that stud ace that we are lacking in the minors. Draft this kid, and in 2 years, we have a rotation of Appel, Cosart (from the Pence trade), and Lyles. If these guys pan out (and I understand that's a big IF), then that would be a huge step in the rebuilding process. With Heck at the helm, although it seems unlikely, there are still plenty of good reasons to draft Appel with our first overall pick. To bolster our attendance number, the Astros could always have a giveaway night, and the first 5,000 fans receive iPads on his first start! So the marketing aspect of it makes sense too, lol! Fielder He's been mentioned before too, but this Nick Williams kid is someone to keep an eye on. First, he will be easy to scout, as he goes to Galveston Ball High School. He has tremendous potential, and a nice lefty power swing, and has been compared to Griffey. I've read that his stock has dropped a little since I first read about him, but again, we are a ways off from the draft, so stock will go up and down until then. In addition to lacking pitching depth, we also do not have a lot of power in the minors (really only Jonathan Singleton, from the Pence trade as well). Williams has power potential, and it would be nice to have at least 2 or 3 guys that give you 30+ HRs. If Nick and Singleton play to their potential and pan out, that is probably 2 right there. Just like Appel, there is a lot of risk in drafting an outfielder out of high school, but the reward could be great as well. An outfield of Ariel Ovando, George Springer, and Nick Williams could be crazy sick if they all pan out (I'm sure every team's outfield would be amazing if their top prospects pan out to what they hope, but still, I can hope). And that is not even including JD Martinez, who I am hoping continues to hit well and improve next year. Another important factor that the front office would have to determine is timing. When do they truly feel we can be contenders. If it's 2 years from now, it would make more sense to draft a college pitcher (Appel), who would be able to contribute sooner at the big league level. If it is 3 or 4 years, then timing-wise, Nick Williams would make more sense, as it will take a high school kid longer to be ready for the majors. This is if the scouts feel the talent is comparable. If there is a clear-cut #1 talent, like a Harper or Strasburg, then you take him no matter what. However, at least as of right now, there is no consensus #1 (we really should have sucked this bad either last year or the year before, or been "lucky" enough to suck both years like the Nats). I guess the other very important factor is who is actually drafting. I've considered Bobby Heck's tendencies, but my hope is that Andrew Friedman and his gang will be calling the shots by then. If so, then I don't really care who they draft, I am confident it will be a good decision. If you look at Tampa Bay's pitching depth, it is freaking incredible. If you ask me, this is the perfect time for Andrew Friedman to come back to his hometown and turn the team he grew up cheering for into a winner. The man is working his magic in Tampa and doing a tremendous job, and Tampa still has no fan support. I can't wait until the entire city is excited about Astros baseball again. The early to mid 2000s were great to be a part of. I mean there are a lot reasons why Friedman to the Astros is a great idea. And having the first overall pick will hopefully entice him even more. These were just a few of the obvious names to keep track of, I also have heard Trey Williams discussed here, but do not know much about him. Let me know if other prospects interest you and who all we should be keeping an eye on. I am hoping to learn more about our other options from people more in-the-know than I. Any and all discussion is welcome.
