Happ's problem is control, not his stuff. Worley has better shown better control. That said, Worley can't be the centerpiece of a deal for Pence. Edit: They'd have to trade a lot of their young players along with Worley. Would need to be a 5 for 1 type of deal. The Phillies top prospects are all in A-A+ ball. Hardly sure-fire ML guys. I would take Dominic Brown straight-up.
He immediately replaces Hunter Pence, is 23, and a great talent. He has a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate than Pence. Brown's BABIP has been below average this season, and Pence's is well above average, so assuming they go towards the mean, Brown could have a better 2nd half than Pence, while having loads more potential.
totally disagree. Pence has been up and down in the field over the last few years based on advanced metrics. His career year is aided by a ridiculously high BABIP. Big raise coming up While he's younger, most teams looking for a deal are looking for the current year mostly. They'll look beyond some, but some teams (like the Pirates) probably can't afford to give him a longterm raise--it'd be like paying Jayson Werth.
#1--I'm happy my fav player Perreault is back. Now just gotta hope he sticks in the big leagues for the whole year (doubtful given the signings...we'll see) Def. happy with Vokoun at that price. Varlamov trade was an unbelievable steal. Certainly glad Laich is back. Great job getting Alzner cheaply. Brouwer good. Ward and Hamrlik..eh. Sounds like Hannan could have been kept at the same price as Hamrlik.. I don't know. I still trust GM. Boudreau...not so much. I feel like it might not be his fault, but a change is needed anyway. I'm glad there has been some change on the roster, but I still don't know what the hell happened to Backstrom and if he's back to himself or not. I hope it was the injury hangover type of thing.
Brown is a nice player, but the Astros need more arms throwing fire and bats with pop. Even if the prospects don't end up panning out, I would rather they strike out trying to get players who can be that instead of what Brown seems to project as.
Brown projects as a guy who will give you everything Pence can (including giving you 25-30HR), plus draw walks. The odds of him not panning out to be at least what Hunter Pence is are slim.
This is sort of where I am. I would have a tough time justifying trading Pence for Brown straight up--with only one player coming back, you run the not-inconsiderable risk that he might never even be the equivalent of the guy you give up. The failure of one player constitutes the total failure of the trade. And Brown hasn't proved a thing in the majors. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if Philly is reluctant to give up Brown for Pence straight up (for the reasons juicystream gave), much less to ship him off with Worley or one of their Clearwater pitchers who would help calm my jittery one-for-one nerves. The Astros might be better off, at least in my view, targeting the evidently available Singleton plus a nice prospect pitcher or two. If they could get Brown plus any player better than Kyle Kendrick, though, I'd be on board.
I was actually reading the post that I responded to as Pence isn't a Roy or Lance in his prime. It was late so I was probably out of it. I agree with you that he should be worth more than the version of Berkman we traded and probably in the vicinity of what Roy commanded, maybe more based on the market and Pence's age/contract situation.
Responding to kaleido... please ignore. Last post on the subject. Spoiler Perreault's your favorite? Interesting, you a Hershey Bears fan or something? He's a pretty fringe type player. Unquestionably skilled but has struggled to show the consistency to be a top 2 line player, which is where his skill set lies. His best bet to stick in the NHL is to adapt his game and become more of a two-way player so he can possibly stick on a 3rd line. Backstrom is my favorite player. What a miserable year he had. Mind-boggling really. Came out of preseason with some kind of minor injury so I cut him slack for the first few weeks. He never really came around though. There were times 2 seasons ago where he looked like one of the top few players in the leauge, not even factoring points. I remember a stretch of about 3-4 weeks that season where he was absolutely dominant all over the ice - easily our best player and possibly playing better than anybody else in the league. I have very little faith in McPhee. I just don't feel like he grasps the reality of the hard cap era nor understands how to build a balanced roster. You like at how the Bowmans and other recent cup winners have approached things and you see that they strike while the iron is hot since the age of prolonged dominance is coming to end with the financial parity and all. Leonsis and McPhee's overly conservative, good-for-a-decade approach may backfire and we'll end up being good but never quite good enough. Playoff time is what matters and McPhee has really swung and missed at recent trade deadlines, going back to Corvo, a washed up Arnott, a declining Hannan who never lived up to his contract in COL, etc... Arnott was good at times but you knew he was going to fade away at some point... not that McPhee gave up a lot but that's kind of the point - strike while the iron is hot in the hard cap era. Identify your core players and then be aggressive in adding pieces while you're in contention. Not a fan of Boudreau either. AHL-caliber coach, imo. Not detail-oriented enough. Too player-friendly. Lots of regular season success, partly due to the rebuilding phase hitting it's peak right around when he came in, even though I credit his personality for sparking the young talent. Gets coached out of his pants in playoff series because of his inability to make counter-adjustments. It's one thing when you face a diff. team almost every night but when it's b2b2b2b... coaching strategies and adjustments become key. Time for a change here as well. I'd like a new GM to come in and evalute everything from top to bottom. I think we're spinning our wheels with McPhee running the ship.
We may have the Stros target... Ben Seal Scouting report from earlier in the year... Tonight his line... 6 innings 3 hits 2 ERs 8 strikeouts 3 walks
Sounds like the kid would be devastated to be traded from the Phillies. I wonder if the Phillies would even be willing to move him.
Grady Sizemore is out for 6 weeks, I wonder if the Indians would now turn their attention to Bourn? They were looking at Coco Crisp but wondering if they would look a bit higher and long term? JIM BOWDEN
The more potential suitors the better. Nats, Pirates, Braves, Indians, Phillies let's get everyone in a bidding war for Pence and Bourn.
I don't think they'll look long-term with Bourn. Brantley is their leadoff hitter of the future and they can't afford to have two non-sluggers in the outfield. They also need a power RHB for the short-term. I don't see Bourn being a fit. Pence makes more sense as a rental but I'm not sure they'll give up what it takes to get him, esp. now that they're down two key outfielders. The Sizemore injury actually makes me think they're less likely to be aggressive since they're probably too many pieces away at this point. Then again, if they were looking to bring back Crisp, I suppose anything is possible. Maybe they know they won't have to give up as much to get him. No idea. Edit: Actually, I'm guessing they were looking at Crisp before the Sizemore injury. Like Bourn, Crisp doesn't make a whole lot of sense at this point unless it's just really cheap insurance. Kipnis got called up by the way. I think that's a sign that he's off the market. I don't think they're showcasing him. They're just trying to compensate for the outfield losses by trying to upgrade 2B, where Cabrera has been miserable and Valbuena is not working out in any facet.
