Keppinger traded to Giants

Here's another sympathy post for you.

 

ha. i guess the era of people complaining that the astros coddle their minor leaguers is over, and the era of people complaining that they bring them up too soon has begun.

 

I hear you but that doesn't really answer the question I was alluding to.

What is there to gain by potentially pushing them closer to getting paid more?

It's really that simple.

These 20 and 21 year olds will not be underdeveloping if they spend another year or two or more in the minors.

And if we're in contention 4 years from now, and we can't afford to sign them (or a free agent or two that could potentially put us over the top), I see plenty of reason to complain. We could be a better team if we have these players with the same abilities making less money because we'll have more available resources.

Use fringe players for at least the rest of this season. Give guys like Sanchez, Bogusevic, Towles, etc... plenty of playing time. If even one gets on a roll, maybe they became a small asset and we simultaneously avoid starting clocks on better prospects while we're a million games under .500 with the likelihood of being awful for at least another couple of years.

 

Grey area.

Neither extreme is good.

Simple.

 

I see only two possible reasons for these kinds of moves with these kinds of players at this point in time:

1. Wade is desperate to save his job by showing off prospects, even it is not the most beneficial thing to do for the long-term. He didn't sign Altuve but he probably figures he's overseeing all development now so it's all good. I don't think this is necessarily what is going on but I see no good baseball reason for these moves.

2. Wade is trying to show current and future draftees that this is a place where they will get a chance to move through the system quickly. He's trying to eliminate the Astros reputation of holding prospects back. This may be the closest thing to justification for potentially costing us resource availibility in the future since once again, I see no good baseball reason for the moves and have yet to hear one.

 

Well, on the flipside, what do you have to gain by keeping a guy in the minors to seemingly allow him to "develop"... when he may never turn out to be much of a MLB player anyways.

We've already done that... Burke, Lane, Ensberg, and Towles all seemingly waited "too long" to get their shot, and then didn't really pan out (or fizzled fast like Ensberg).

Also, guys like Willy T, Jason Hirsh, Matt Albers, and Troy Patton were brought up quickly... and kinda showed what they would be, long term, right away... eliminating a lot of the "what if we had allowed them to develop" argument. Ironically, only Albers is in the majors anymore.

To be honest, unless there is somebody young and of value currently on the big league squad (like Wallace or Castro), I'd rather bring these guys up sooner and see what they can do... and if they need to improve, they get big league instruction/on the job training.

In your scenario, all these prospects pan out... and the Astros may be out of money faster because of that.... which would be the current GM (or Bobby Heck's) wet dream because it means their system is actually working. I've never heard of a rebuilding team wanting to hold their prospects back longer for fear of having to pay them sooner.... when you feel they are ready, and there's nobody ahead of them of note, bring them up.

 

I want to be wrong about this stuff but I've read/heard nothing to convince me yet. Nick made a good argument but it didn't answer my fundamental questions.

 

The first point is a good one. It doesn't completely justify the moves to me but it is a potential benefit since it can facilitate decision-making.

On the second point... it happens all the time. I'm honestly pretty surprised to see you unaware of that given your baseball knowledge. They rarely if ever acknowledge it publicly but organizations are always conscience of that stuff - clocks, arbitration, super 2 status - esp. smaller market teams. There are tons of examples every season. It's why you see teams often wait until certain dates pass by before calling players up to push back the clock another year or whatever.

 

big gaints fan here, wondering how Keppinger is at SS. I know the report is that he decent at 2nd base, but what are your thoughts.

 

Well, your "fundamental" questions are a little hard to follow...

You don't want them to start bring up potential plus prospects now because you fear that when we're in contention in 4 years, we won't be able to add pieces or keep the current young team together. By that logic, you're assuming that all these prospects are potentially going to "work out" and get this team into contention (a good thing).

Your argument against it is that this team is bad now... and "won't" get better soon, so play crappy non-prospect players for now.

So on one planet, this team gets real good real fast with the young prospects... while on the other planet, the 20 and 21 year olds aren't going to do much so why pay them sooner?

Don't really follow. Also, even if they're 22 or 23, there's going to be an adjustment period regardless.... just like you say another year or two of development in the minors isn't going to hurt them, I say another year or two in the majors could help the team improve quicker/faster regardless of their future salary implications.

 

Since almost all of you are happy about these moves, I'll just let my arguments rest and try to make the best of it as a fan even if I'm not sold. I am talking worst-case scenarios anyway. I don't see the point of risking anything but it is what it is and there are probably some minor benefits, including giving fans instant gratification, which we all need at times.

 

I see that more on good teams, or teams with established stars/veterans and they really have no need for that minor league player at that given moment (think Berkman in 1999 and 2000).... however the Astros have NOBODY worth a damn at the MLB level to block Altuve.

Also, the guy is killing minor league pitching right now... and he's as unorthodox as they come. There is no textbook on how to develop a player of his stature. Nobody can predict how this tiny guy is going to hit in the big leagues, and I don't see how keeping him in AA or AAA any longer is going to change that.

 

Worst-case scenario? Dude, you have us being contenders pretty soon. That sounds good to me.

The key is to avoid not having any young players of note when the team starts to go bad.... which is what happened to the Astros in 2009. Team started to go south, but they had zero minor leaguers ready because of the horrible minor league depletion from 2005-2008.

 

It's really simple, Nick. You're overthinking my point.

Obviously, contention is a good thing. Even better is being in contention and having 3 or 4 core talents making a combined $15 mil instead of let's say $25 mil. It gives you more room to spend to fill other needs. Maybe addressing that need(s) (by being able to afford it under limited resources) turns you from a contender into a WS winner. Conversely, not having that money maybe puts you in a situation where you end up not having that piece to put you over the top. You'll never now but it's obvious in theory.

So the prospects "working out" is not what I fear. It's not a complicated point really.

On you last point, that's another sound argument if you believe that they will improve more quickly in a ML environment. That is not always the case and needs to be evaluated on a player-to-player basis. It hurts some and helps others. Maybe they reason that Lyles and Altuve will improve faster and it is therefore worth the potential loss in spending room down the line.

 

Good deal. Kepp was never going to be a key piece to this team any time soon. The pitchers don't seem to be number one or two starters, but sound like they may work out to be part of a good bullpen, or 4th or 5th starters. I'm glad to see Altuve called up, lets see what the little SOB can do.

 

The sooner you bring them up, the sooner they can adjust to the big leagues. Very few players come up and immediately are great - it's going to take time. You might as well get them up and seeing and adjusting to major league pitching. In general, you're going to have better hitting & pitching coaches at the major league level too, so it should improve their learning process.

Plus, if they suck the next two years, you know then instead of bringing them up in 2 years and only finding out 2 years after that.

 

Keppinger can be competent at SS and 3B but he's more suited defensively to 2nd base. His bat is solid. He makes contact (only 7 SO) and he hits for pretty good average for a middle infielder but not too much power. Compared to Bill Hall, who you guys picked up off our trash heap earlier this year, he's a better hitter and so much more reliable. He should suit SF well in another playoff run. Best of luck to him!

 

Keppinger is an awful defensive shortstop. He's passable at second or third base.