I actually believe most anything can be measured. The problem is finding how the hell to do it. There is MUCH more work to be done on that front in regards to basketball. I don't understand the method of using some "advanced" stat just because it's a better form of measuring than the crap that preceded it.
Moreyball has worked so far. I think you are discounting it because of one angle, failure to get the star. Other than Miami, Boston, LA (thank Memphis for that one) and unfortunately I have to include Dallas, the rest of the league hasn't exactly found some magical way to be better than the Rockets. The teams that have the stars got them through having high draft picks (not #14), but mainly through seasons of losing. And, this is what anyone arguing against Moreyball is arguing for. The only other angle is trading for a superstar (see teams above..not like there are all that many opportunities for that). Morey has failed to sign/trade for a star so far and has only gotten an almost star in Kmart, along with a whole lot of good players that still have upside b/c they are all 25 or younger. That is not a bad place to be with whats going to possibly result from the lockout. Morey may be sitting in the driver seat finally, if resources are constrained and there is any hard cap forcing miami or whoever to dump someone for better contracts. I don't think Morey has really had a chance to make a play for a true star, except for 1 year (last year) and Stat/Bosh signed where they wanted to sign. Otherwise, I don't think he's had the parts to really make a move for anyone. And, I know the anti-moreyballers hate to hear bringing up yao/tmac, but thats what he was saddled with, along with 0 high picks. I think he has the parts now to make a trade for a star and by the end of this season (if we have one), I think its fair to finally evaluate how he has done with this team. But, really, we aren't going to get anyone better in here (anyone that mentions CD...really, were you alive pre-Morey, those were some badddd contracts he gave out), so just give him this year and I think he deserves the next year, too. And, if it isn't there, then your magical GM you have in mind to replace him, can ride in with all the parts in place and make your fantasy team real
The problem as i see it is that morey/moneyball DOES work in the NBA, Morey has been excellent at finding undervalued assets, and getting them in exchange for overvalued ones. The problem is that among other dissimilarities to MLB, an NBA team can erase a lot of quality gaps between it in its peers with 1 or 2 personnel moves (the big trade/FA acquisition/Lottery pick)....and a lot of these moves depend on luck (literally luck of the draw with respect to lotto picks, and being in the right place at the right time for others (Wade attracting James/Bosh or McHale bumbling his way to giving up Garnett for less than the Celts had initially offered for him). This neutralizes a lot of the advantages that being able to eek out small victories like Morey is able to brings, and it sets up the "tank vs. high lotto/low playoffs" conundrum that doesn't exist in MLB given the scattershot nature of the MLB draft and the less-predictable, longer time frame nature of its results.
I agree. The smaller victories are of much more importance in a sport where you have 9 guys filling out a lineup than where you have 5. One alpa-type player makes all the difference in basketball....that's far less the case in baseball.
I think the reasons for the above is the # of players and the role a player can take on. In MLB, you have 25 guys on the roster, with 10-11 starters (depending on DH rule) and probably 5 or so subs (relief pitchers and pinch hitters, etc.) in each game. No hitter will get much more than 1/9 of the hitting opportunities whether you are Brad Ausmus or Babe Ruth No pitcher will get more than 1/5 of the innings (usually much less than that). You also have a huge farm system. In the NBA, you only have 12-15 guys on the roster, with 5 starters and probably 3-4 more guyhs in the rotation. You don't have to have an even distribution for touches-- some guys like Lebron touches the ball much more often than others like Shane Battier. The D-League isn't much of a farm system compared to the minor leagues. So, it's easier to build a winner in MLB by making a series of good moves-- to LTCM your way to a trophy. In the NBA, you don't have as many opportunities to make moves due to less guys on the roster and on yoru farm teams. Making a series of good moves helps, but Scola + Martin + Lowry still doesn't have the effect of one Lebron James.
Need to stop talking about "Murray's failure to acquire a star" when we've had a star on the roster every year he's been here.
when we talk of stars, we're talking of real stars. not the kevin martins of the world. guys that are legit 1st team/2nd team all NBA material.
I think you're missing the point of moneyball. The point is to under-pay for more valuable assets. Cuban simply overpays for mediocre talent, which is okay if he doesn't mind spending the big bucks, But it certainly isn't moneyball.
no one on this team is playing at 1st team/2nd team all NBA talent level. i wish they were, but they're not.
exactly. he's overpaying...not seeking value. he may use statistical analysis, but i'm guessing every team does that in some measure. this is a far cry from a Moneyball approach.
"Moneyball" is just the title of Michael Lewis' book. It isn't some religion with specific laws and commandments. It is applied differently by different teams in different sports at different budget levels. It involves some uses of analytics and non-traditional stats, but otherwise teams apply these tools very differently. The Red Sox have a budget several times that of the Oakland A's, for example, and both can be called "Moneyball" teams. Similarly, two analytics oriented teams in the NBA can have very different budgets. Also, in baseball, analytics replaced traditional thinking. In basketball, it merely complements traditional methods.
Value is the main reason you do statistical analysis. Cuban isn't getting players just to overpay, he was getting players who seemed valuable despite their big contracts. Only difference is the Mavericks were in the contending the stage, and they kept gambling for big name players because their core was already set (Dirk, Kidd). We did the same thing too, when DM did the Battier trade, and then the Artest trade in order to get Yao-Mac some help. Not sure why you think they're different, they're the same approach.
Exactly and I said moreyball, not moneyball. Morey has always stated that star players are the biggest bargains because they salaries are capped. How can anyone say that Cuban overpays when he is always able to find teams to trade for his players.
I once played Murrayball with a rabbi from Crown Heights. $422 later I realized the gravity of my mistake.
there is another difference in basketball and baseball. in basketball, analytics can also be used in more strategy, which lineups play the best together. basketball is more of a sport with each player depending on the other where as in baseball hitting is all up to you with some variables like having more protection in your line up.
