http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/30227/carlisle-pushed-all-of-the-right-buttons Rick Carlisle is still not a Hall of Fame coach so he didn't get the memo about the uselessness of analytics.
Before the series, I read somewhere that all of the geek models predicted Miami to win and gave the Mavs very little chance.
U think stats told carisle that even though stevenson was shooting 60% from 3 that data shows he should start jj the last 4 games? Maybe carisle watched game 1 and 2 and said,we're going to have an impossible time scoring if we don't have another sot creator. Maybe those same geeks told cuban to trade for chandler after signing haywood to 8m per year or keep terry who makes 9 or sign marion who makes 8, or kidd who at 38 makes 8m. Doesn't that go against all that data or is it dallas geeks don't see the money value?
Stats - Shmats The Mavs won because Cuban is willing to pay a luxury tax - one of the biggest - period. Anything else is coincidental
yep, they couldn't handle duncan last season so they went out and got chandler. great add, not discounting what beech brought to the team
Cuban's model told him Kidd was the 2nd best player in the NBA. Also are you actually questioning if analytics played a part? Cuban's quote and the article explicitly said it, why are you still questioning?
1. The Dallas starting 5 had a negative +/- for most of the playoffs, so yes, stats might very well have contributed to Carlisle's lineup change. 2. Cuban has specifically argued in favor of the impact of Kidd on the basis of adjusted +/- (I think he had the 2nd highest adjusted +/- in the league one year). So yes, the geeks probably favored Kidd, at whatever age. 3. Houston's geeky front office also tried to acquire Chandler, so I think I think Dallas' geeks like him, too. As for Haywood under contract... so what, Mavs got money to burn. 4. Cuban himself and people who work for Dallas gave credit to the geeky approach. Cuban also spend a lot of money on the analytics. So, yes, I think they have good reasons to believe the geeks made an impact. EDIT: 5. Nobody says analytics determined everything or that Carlisle was simply the human face of a computer, just that it was a useful tool and contributed to their wins.
I'm telling you stats had nothing to do with the spending aspect of it which is what it came down to. Unless stats tell you something money doesn't. Marion and butler, haywood and chandler, kidd and terry. That's 55m of salary for dept without even including dirk. Is that what the stats told them to do,double stack dept with high paid players. It doesn't take a machine to tell me that. Just like stats didn't tell carisle that they couldn't score enough points. Stats shoulde told spoelstra that chalmers have been better offensively and defensively than bibby,yet it took a closeout game.
Stats went into deciding how much value to put on players, and also into assessing risk. But, ultimately, its up to the owner to take in that information, weigh it, and decide if he wants to swing for the fences or play it safe. I think it always comes down to a gut call in the end. But you gather as much info as you can to be able to make that call with confidence.
I created a thread on the quotes in this article, but it go pushed down to a different page. No matter. People question the Rockets decision to overhaul their coaching staff. Legitimate questions were brought up. Maybe, deep down, the Rockets wish they had a different Rick? http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/30227/carlisle-pushed-all-of-the-right-buttons [rquoter] ... Perhaps he needed an owner like Cuban to appreciate him. Cuban is an oddity because he’s as emotional as any owner in basketball, but behind that facade is an avid number-cruncher who hired Carlisle, in part, because Cuban studied his lineup usage and noted he used optimal line-ups with far greater frequency than most coaches. Perhaps he needed a team like this too. Having a team full of veterans that cared little about personal agendas gave him a lot more leeway to mix and match lineups and roles. That, in turn, provided him the optimal environment to work his magic. “The inflection point for the team this year,” said Cuban, “was when they got past learning Rick’s system, to finally just committing to it and executing Rick’s system. And with the analytics, understanding what it takes to execute it and how to execute it. So Rick did a phenomenal job.” ... “Roland was a key part to all his,” Cuban said. “I give a lot of credit to Coach Carlisle for putting Roland on the bench and interfacing with him, and making sure we understood exactly what was going on. Knowing what lineups work, what the issues were in terms of play calls and training.” “It makes a difference. I think Jason and JET and Dirk and Tyson Chandler make a whole lot more difference, but if you don’t know what’s going on it’s hard for you to get smarter and get better.” [/rquoter]
I have come to the conclusion that regardless of the mountain of evidence that shows the value of statistical consideration you and your type will not give it any credit. I wish that wasn't the case, but so be it.
The Rockets almost hired Carslile. He is very sharp, and his floor spacing is great. However, make no mistake that it is more than the coach, he is part of a system set up by Cuban that is made up of well paid, intelligent, ambitious guys that think outside the box....
I believe stats plays a part in basketball, just not as big as people want to make it. Cuban uses stats and money which are huge. The rockets use stats,but not money which is what it is. If the mavericks had les and not cuban, there would be no chandler,marion,terry on the squad. Front office can crunch all they want,but those numbers mean zero without the backing of the owner. Notice how its said les would go over the lt for special players. The mavs went over the lt for high end role players. There is a huge difference in the mentality of the 2 franchises. Reember when dallas had 4 max player on the roster at the same time? Then they traded jamison for the #5 or 7 pick in harris. Next they traded walker for players. They let nash go but sign dampier. They kept making move after the mo e over the cap because dirk is a true superstar that styed healthy. Even when they traded for kidd,they didn't offset his salry by trading terry because they knew his value. Even though they had butler,they still signed marion. Even if they traded for chandler,they knew to beat lakers they knew they need 7fters. To protect the rim. They didn't get salary and trade salary because they wanted every hole filled in the midst of a championship run. Les has never done that that and that's part of the reason why the rockets have been average. Stats backed up by money is great,but stats backed by talk is bs.
The Knicks used to have a $90M payroll back when they had Starbury/Francis/bla bla bla. I think the Blazers did as well. And they were not winning jack. It is one thing to spend money and a completely other to know what to spend it on. Mavs used stats to figure that out and it worked for them. No idea what other teams at that salary level (Lakers, Magic, etc) use.
That is where stat geeks should be, in the backseat or passenger seat......not leading the charge. DD