Agreed. Same thing with Jio Mier. We have two very good young SS prospects that need to handled with kid gloves. I think JD's peak could be a starting outfielder for a team that's stacked with power elsewhere. I just keep thinking he's due for a regression at some level.
I'm guessing they called up Jonathan Villar because they saw altuve was ready and want to keep the double-play combo together...that and I see jiovanni mier being called up as soon as the draft ends and all the draftees come into our system
Anybody see the type of year Adam Plutko is having for UCLA? He was the Astros 6th round pick last year but didn't sign. He is having a better year than his teammated Gerrit Cole who will be the 1st overall pick tomorrow. Damn I wish the Astros signed Plutko last year but he probably made the right move not signing and will likely a top pick in the 2013 draft. JaCoby Jones had a very good freshman year for LSU as well. I don't what kind of demands Plutko and Jones had but I wish they Astros signed both of them and spent that $3.25m wasted on Bill Hall on them.
Really hoping that Archie Bradley fall to them and they take him tomorrow. Looking unlikely though. He's now getting strong looks at #4 to Baltimore. If he's gone would also be happy with Jungmann, Gray, Barnes or J. Bradley. It's a deep draft so there should be a relatively strong prospect out there at #11 tomorrow.
http://www.insidesocal.com/tribpreps/2010/08/plutko-going-to.html -Astros offered Plutko $1 million, waaaay over slot. http://www.astroscounty.com/2010/07/longer-jacoby-jones-waits-better-it.html -Astros offered Jones around $1.5 million, so not chump cange, and he turned it down. The Astros offered big money to these guys, and they just decided they wanted to go to college.
That's really sad when they offer above-slot money and get turned down. It also says they did a bad job of gauging these guys' signability.
I think with Plutko they gambled that money would outweigh going to school, calculated guess that failed. Jones was a 19th rd pick, I believe, that is around when those type of players get picked. NO ONE expected him to sign with anyone but worth a shot with the right amount of money in play. Josh Bell will be interesting to watch. Who knows where he will drop too and how much teams will be willing to pay for him. Rumors are floating around some teams have offered 6-7 million and he is still saying it's UT.
I would be very surprised to see Josh Bell turn down 6-7 large, so he can go to college. Not a smart move at all.
Final Yahoo mock has us taking Taylor Jungmann. 11. Houston Astros The Pick: Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas The Buzz: The Astros reached on all three first round picks last season and this year are in a position to go with any number of quality pitchers still on the board. It is a pick that could be second guessed many times over but the organization sticks with a Texan and gets the Longhorns' 6-foot-6 workhorse pitcher. May Mock: Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) High April Mock: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt Pugs
Both players could have been 1st/2nd round picks if teams expected them to sign. The Astros knew there was a good chance they couldn't sign either, but they made a strong effort to do so. The Astros did a very good job of signing their picks last year. Its really too bad that we don't have all those extra picks this year rather than last year.
Agreed, I think he is trying to squeeze every last dollar out of whoever drafts him. I can see someone in the comp rd or 2nd rd taking the gamble and hoping a nice large bonus will get the job done. Would be interesting to see what happens if Bell is around at #69, we get to see Crane's approach on drafting and spending right away. At this point I think it may come down to a 3 horse race for the #11 spot. I think they go with Bradley and his MAJOR upside if he is there. Problem has now arisen that he might not even last past #8. At that point, I think it's either Jungmann or Matt Barnes. Mentioned this weekend that while I love the sick numbers and frame of Jungmann, all those innings Gurido put him through worries me and his last start was very medicore. Barnes has been good all season but not familiar with his pitching styles or coach. The surprise guy they might take is Taylor Guerrieri, high school kid with electric stuff.
I hope that the Astros do more of the same this year. Maybe Crane will reach deep into his pockets and persuade those players on the fence. Just as a thought experiment ... what impact on the farm system and its ratings would signing Plutko and Jones have been?
Maybe a 1-2 spot difference max. They would've increased the overall talent level but being high school players probably wouldn't have done much in their first season in rookie ball.
I know its irrational but I expect the Astros to overcompensate for years of a terrible farm system by doing every possible, i.e. signing the unsignable. Unfortunately all signs point to them being content with a low, slow approach to rebuilding the farm system. That's not a bad approach, but it means they're merely catching up to average minor league depth rather than making large strides and possibly leap frogging up into high teens or top 10.
Its hard to say. Both may have been considered top 10 prospects in the organization. We'd be stacked at SS with Jones/Mier/Villar all being about the same age. They wouldn't fix the larger problem which is lack of quality depth. There are quite a few guys floating around in our minor leagues that should have been gone by now, but you have to fill the roster somehow.
I might be wrong, but one or both might crack the top 100 prospects lists. I do agree with your point that the Astros farm system lacks depth. Adding better depth would certainly increase the number of games the Astros farm teams win. But ... It is the high ceiling prospects that usually, eventually impact the MLB teams performance. Adding one or two more players who are likely to earn their keep at the MLB level should significantly boost the farm system (about which I care little) and should deliver more starters for the MLB club (about which I do care).
Jones probably could have cracked the top 100 since Villar did, and he would have been ranked ahead of him. Plutko probably wouldn't have been. He would have had to dominate in his first season of pro-ball to make the list. I agree that having a few top flight guys is better than a team full of AAAA players, but you need that depth, so you don't rush guys just to fill spots, and to call up when you have injuries. The Astros have a ton of players still in the system with zero hope of ever playing a ML game. And of course added depth allows for more surprise guys, that surpass expectations.
That's really unlikely. Rarely if ever do high school players crack the top 100 after one season of rookie ball. The list is pretty much Bryce Harper and that's it. Baseball is like any other sport. Top prospects make you great, but you still need mid-level and low-level prospects to be average. Just look at the Astros, there are a number of players who are contributing who weren't top prospects: Wandy, Bud Norris, Chris Johnson (last year). To use a Rockets analogy, Yao and TMac: top prospects. With no "average" players around them, they didn't go far. 2010 Rockets: all mid-level players, didn't go very far. Can't go all one way or the other. Successful farm teams equals successful major league teams. And, every now and then you'll have a mid-level/low-level prospect bust out and pull a Ben Zobrist.
11. Houston Astros: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech This could be a good spot for Lindor should he make it out of the top 10, though the best college pitcher still on the board has always made sense. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110606&content_id=20105346&vkey=draftcentral2011 I like Lindor, he could go much higher depending on what pitchers go early in the draft. That said, another middle infielder??? Much rather prefer either Bradley at this spot.
11. HOU – Jed Bradley, LHP (Georgia Tech) Mostly linked to teams like the Indians and Blue Jays – clubs that traditionally favor college picks in the first round – Bradley is a solid overall pitcher. His repertoire is not overpowering, but he has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter. He throws an 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. He has slightly-above-average control and could move swiftly through a minor league system. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2011-fangraphs-mock-draft/ Looks like Jed Bradley is gaining steam for the 11th pick. I'd be fine with Bradley, kind of glad I see less Jungmann for the Stros. Would be mad if they picked Jungmann but he worries me. Archie Bradley is moving up the boards so it's not looking good on that front.
