i am just saying, when you are talking about "reaching", you are referring to where you are drafting the player in relation to where the mocks have him going.
And.I am taking issue with your level of resolution. For instance, if you pick a guy one pick before your mock consensus, does that one pick make him a reach? I say that is normal variability of opinions, not reaching. I'm going to guess that you won't take issue with that, so what about two picks? Is that a reach? Three slots? How about four? Etc. So unless one slot is a reach, the definition of what constitutes a reach is more nuanced than your definition. And to me that means a reach requires a specific element of 'zomg! they did what?' A reach requires the other scouts to look at each other and snicker. My personal opinion is that that element was not present here. 'Experts' and pundits seemed capable of wrapping their heads around the pick, even if they disagreed.
Couple things here, rebuilding in baseball is a LONG term process and considering Drayton and how the system was so dry Wade has had VERY little to work with. The farm system was a MESS, minimal progress is an achievement truth be told but I do think it's more then minimal. I see the system being in the teens by season's end, worst case around 20. Wade has also made some nice moves. He traded Lidge at the perfect time, he got a nice package for Berkman and Oswalt got us a starting 1st baseman, SS of the future and a steady #3 starter. Also getting Sanchez and Kepp for nothing was good and picking up guys like Jason B. has paid off. Now comes the issues, while he has made some nice moves, his FAgent signings have been BAD. Hall might have been the nail in his coffin, not sure who thought that was a good idea. I had to talk myself into being okay with the move but the end result was predictable. For a guy that thrives at acquiring bullpen help, has been awful at putting it together. Problem with evaluating him is whether this was his mess or did Drayton order him to make these types of moves. So while it looks like he's road is coming to an end and rightfully so, I am not ready to condemn the guy because he has done some good things. Saying that, if he reaches for someone like Lee come Monday, that would be my Colts game for Wade...the point where I gave up on Kubiak and wanted change.
The Astros continue to deny any rumors that they've been trying to work out a pre-draft deal with Stanford pitcher Chris Reed with the intent of selecting him at No. 11 overall, tweets Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Goff predicts the Astros will take Archie Bradley (Twitter link), and ESPN.com's Keith Law writes in his latest mock draft that they'll take prep shortstop Francisco Lindor or Bradley if he's still available. The Astros have improved their farm system under GM Ed Wade and his stable of area scouts, according to Goff. Wade's first draft as Astros GM was in 2008, when Houston selected Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles, both of whom have reached the bigs.
well, you certainly have no means of proving that. in summary, your definition of a reach is: whatever you think a reach is, and you'll let us know when it happens. not exactly the strongest argument, but also not one that i'd even attempt to counter.
I gave the "it takes time to rebuild the farm" speech at the beginning of the season too but as it stretches close the 3.5 year mark of Ed Wade's tenure I'm starting to have some concerns. I can deal with AAA and even AA struggling. That only makes sense because the bad prospects from the last regime were pushed upwards to make way for the new prospects at the lower levels. My concern is the lower clubs teams suck as bad as the big league club does. Lexington is 3 games under .500 and Lancaster is 11 games under .500. Somebody recently posted an article on how 5 of the Astros 10 top prospects are at lexington, but they were all in fact doing pretty mediocre/downright ****ty (see Delino Jr) Is Ed Wade/Bobby Heck a step up from Tim Purpura? No question. But that combo is merely hitting more singles. They're not knocking out home runs on these picks. We have a functional system again, but its still terrible. It's still a bottom 5 minor league system. For the system to move up in the rankings, the high picks like Folty, Delino, and Jio Mier are going to have to step up and start dominating each level like Lyles did.
So what is your alternative? One pick before the mean average selection point across every mock draft in existence constitutes a reach? Since you are clearly so distainful of anything that cannot be mathamatically proven, please tell me your absolute and infalliable formula for definitively proving whether a selection is a reach.
dude, i agree with you. a reach is when you (ottamaton) say "zomg!", and when the scouts snicker amongst eachother. please post your post-draft analysis and let us know which picks made you gasp and the scouts chuckle.
Don't get me wrong, I have concerns, otherwise I wouldn't be on the verge of giving up on the dude. If he had knocked a few more out of the ballpark then signing Hall, Feliz, Hampton and Ortiz wouldn't sting so much. That said, 3.5 years is still to soon to judge them on building the system. Stros haven't been bad enough to get some of the premier talent in these last few drafts but rather solid talent instead. Rebuilding such a horrible system takes 5-6 years to have a consistent turnaround of young players hitting the bigs. What normally speeds it up is trading players for prospects and they just didn't have a Texieria or Cliff Lee that would bring back some big time guys. They could have squeezed more out of Oswalt, that is a fair point of contention. Another aspect is Drayton, what kind of constraint was put on Wade in trading players, drafting them and signing them? Like I said, this draft is pretty big, they need to hit some homeruns and not reach for closers.
Please post your alternative and superior definition, unless your opinion, like every other opinion in the history of the world, is equally arbitrary, and you are just hiding behind snotty distain because you are too lazy to think it through and admit that your definition will be equally arbitrary. TIA.
it is equally arbitrary, and you win again. if you aren't careful, you will set the record for number of times winning in a single thread.
I'm not calling the Wade/Heck tenure a flop just yet but by the 3.5 year mark they should have more to show than they do. In 3.5 years they haven't produced one solid A-level prospect, that's unusual. Lyles and Castro are both good young players but either would be lucky to sniff more than 1 all-star team in their career. The system definitely has talent now, its just not producing. I'd say now is exactly the time to start evaluating their player development methods. Astros farm system with Wade/Heck: Talent evaluation: B - no major flops yet but nothing special either. For every Jordan Lyles there's a Ross Seaton. Player development: D - outside of Castro and Lyles no one has put up good/great numbers. Yes I'm totally ignoring any numbers from Lancaster. Overall: C - early returns on Castro and Lyles keep this grade from being lower. Some of the low-A guys need to catch fire or the system as a whole will continue treading water rather than making strides.
Lyles and Castro were both top 100 guys, which is kind of the cut off for being a legit prospect. I think that double play combo at CC is something to seriously look at, Altuve and Villar both seem to have something about them. Of Course JD Martinez has hit everywhere, almost gives me a Ben Zobrist vibe to him. Wates, Austin, Kvansicka and Meir have all had solid seasons going and are still all young. Haven't even seen Ovando do anything at Tri-City so there is another, Folty will get his stuff together and Vincent Velasquez will be back next season stronger then ever. I am willing to say those are the guys will see in a few years, starting later this season.
The great thing (usually) about prospects is that hope springs eternal. I'll admit that I am placing a higher expectation on their development given the state of the big league club. Fair or not I don't know. I just wish more guys were showing enough to fast-track em. Castro got fast-tracked when he arguably shouldn't have been. Most of the guys you mentioned are doing solid for their level. They'll get promoted one level a year and make it to the bigs after 4-5 years. That's not good enough. We need faster results. At least one of those low-A guys needs to be a September call up next year.
I really think JD Martinez would have been fast tracked but basically because we have an all star outfield *sigh* he is stuck. He needs to be on the opening day roster next season but at the same time, where does he play? Altuve is another guy I think they are ready to fast track, considering its Kepp and Downs manning that position, there is an opportunity there. If Villar can show a bit more offense and better defense, he should also get the fast track treatment. I will say, OKC is such a crappy team. A bunch of journeymen and non-prospects with only a few guys with any chance to be bench players. They REALLY need to promote some of the CC guys as soon as the draft ends.
JD Martinez strikes me as a 4th outfielder/1st option pinch hitter like Bogesevic. Given his draft position I think they're just happy advancing him at a regular pace. Same thing with Altuve; he's not supposed to have a high ceiling either. May as well fast-track the both of them and see what happens (i.e. trial by fire). Villar might be our best pure talent in the system. He needs the low and slow treatment.
Is he a star defensively or something? Looking over his minor league stats so far, I don't exactly see what the fuss is about. A guy like JD Martinez bats .300 on every team he's been on, but he's a 4th OF and Villar is the best pure talent while hitting .260?
It's all about projection. Villar's tools are rated very highly. Baseball America rank his arm and speed a 70 (on the random 20-80 scale). He also has good size (6'1) and because of his arm projects to stick at SS, a premium position. Basically if his bat comes around he'll be the prototypical SS. Flip side, to play a corner position you need power. JD's got some, he's a great doubles hitter. But he's not great defensively and he doesn't have the power to hold down a corner spot full-time. It sucks but its the truth. It's like watching Heisman trophy winners go in the fifth round while much less successful but more talented players go in the first.
Agree on Villar but JD is an on base machine, again, very much like Zobrist. VERY similar numbers compared to JD during his minor league career with even less power. JD strikesout a bit more then Zobrist did but this season it seems like he has turned a corner in that aspect. Could be one of those hidden gems no one knows about until given the oppurtunity. Villar is a gem, his numbers may not show it yet but he will be our SS for years to come. He needs to continue improving but also note he is trending up and showing good power for a SS and is learning to take a walk. At 20 years of age, being moved to CC already shows what the Stros think of him. His defense will come, he has great range and will make the difficult plays but right now screws up the easy ones...it will come with maturity.
Martinez's problems are that he 1) adds no defense value being stuck to of corners and likely lf and 2) doesn't have the power typically associated with an OF Corner. Of course, if it can hit .320 with doubles it's not going be too big a problem. The other thing to keep in mind is how much offense and power have fallen off these last two years. All of a sudden a 3.70 era is below average and 850 ops at 1st might be a borderline star. If offense stays at this level then Martinez's lack of hr power won't be a big issue. I see him as a future average to slightly above average ml starting corner of. Different but somewhat on par with the value pence gives you. As far as villar I think they're rushing him. He's incredibly young for his levels and still very raw. Don't see the logic in moving him before he mastered his previous level.
