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NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by Carl Herrera, May 25, 2011.

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What do you expect to be the result

  1. Dallas in 4

    6 vote(s)
    1.6%
  2. Dallas in 5

    12 vote(s)
    3.2%
  3. Dallas in 6

    113 vote(s)
    30.5%
  4. Dallas in 7

    43 vote(s)
    11.6%
  5. Miami in 4

    10 vote(s)
    2.7%
  6. Miami in 5

    40 vote(s)
    10.8%
  7. Miami in 6

    115 vote(s)
    31.1%
  8. Miami in 7

    31 vote(s)
    8.4%
  1. Shaud

    Shaud Member

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    The people that are whining about the refs made up their mind before the series started that they were going to complain about the refs in any Heat victory.

    Don't see how anyone could watch last nights game and think the refs were Pro Heat.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. PeppermintCandy

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    The Mavs' lack of size on the perimeter really showed in Game 1. The only shooter with some height they have is Stojakovic and he's been their weak link in the playoffs.

    With the size disadvantage, Carlisle will have to figure out how to utilize the quickness of Barea and Terry more, but that's easier said than done against the perimeter defense of Miami.

    Or maybe Peja can follow Marion's lead and somehow turn back the clock.
     
  3. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    How was he exposed last year. He averaged over 23 points last year and 10 rebounds, which is still pretty good.
    This playoffs, he played as good as Garnett this finals, outplayed Noah and Boozer from Chicago, and held his own against the Mavs front line.
    I would say, he has been one of the best PF's in the finals, and has been key to many of the wins for the Heat.
     
  4. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    Lebron most clutch player in the playoffs since 2007

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post?id=8304.

    How clutch has LeBron been in playoffs?

    MIAMI -- Speaking at Wednesday's press conference on Wednesday, LeBron James asked himself a question that many of us are wondering ourselves.

    "Am I going to make every shot or close every game out from now on?"

    The way he's been shooting lately, that seems like a legitimate question.

    "I hope so," James answered. "I don't know."

    James is on a tear. With jumpers, dunks and drives, James has almost single-handedly shut the door on every opponent he's faced this season. Heading into the playoffs, clutch shooting remained one of few stains on his resume and in a month's time, he's done everything in his power to wipe that clean.

    Here are the numbers:

    In clutch time (final five minutes of the game, score margin within five points) during the 2010-11 playoffs, James has shot 15-for-31 (48.2 percent) from the floor and 5-for-10 from downtown. How good is that? Consider that the average field goal percentage in clutch time stands at a lowly 39.2 percent during the playoffs and the conversion rate from beyond the arc checks out at just 25.8 percent.

    The combination of opposing defenses sharpening with the game on the line and the pressure of time expiring drags league-wide shooting percentages in the clutch down far below what we normally observe. We can see this effect with the degree of difficulty on James' shots. He's not just hitting the easy shots, but he's also drilling the video game shots. He's falling out of bounds, getting fouled on the way to the rack or he has a hand in his face as he releases his shot. He's making the hard look easy.

    So I decided to look up where his clutch shooting display ranks in history. Unfortunately, the StatsCube database only contains clutch numbers over the past four seasons. So we'll have to make do.

    For shooting efficiency from the floor, the statistic to use is effective field goal percentage, which places more weight to 3-pointers (correctly accounting for the value of the extra point). When a player shoots 2-for-6 from downtown, it's the same as shooting 3-for-6 on 2s from a value perspective. Shooting 48.4 percent from the floor is impressive as it is, but we should account for the extra boost on the scoreboard for hitting 5 of his 10 shots from downtown.

    Over the past four playoffs, a total of 20 players have played at least 10 games and shot fifteen field goal attempts in clutch. And James' effective field goal percentage this postseason, 56.5, comes out on top. For reference, the average effective field goal percentage is 42.8 percent in clutch situations.

    Here's the top ten of that list:

    Playoff clutch shooting since 2007-08 (eFG%)
    Year Player Min FG FG% 3FG 3FG% eFG%
    2010-11 LeBron James 43 15-31 48.4 5-10 50.0 56.5
    2010-11 Dirk Nowitzki 32 7-15 46.7 2-3 66.7 53.3
    2007-08 Pau Gasol 47 8-15 53.3 0-0 0.0 53.3
    2010-11 Kevin Durant 52 12-27 44.4 3-11 27.3 50.0
    2007-08 Kobe Bryant 47 15-31 48.4 1-4 25.0 50.0
    2009-10 Rashard Lewis 74 10-29 34.5 7-15 46.7 46.6
    2008-09 Paul Pierce 76 16-38 42.1 2-4 50.0 44.7
    2008-09 Kobe Bryant 50 14-34 41.2 2-8 25.0 44.1
    2008-09 Hedo Turkoglu 74 11-30 36.7 4-11 36.4 43.3
    2007-08 Kevin Garnett 50 9-21 42.9 0-1 0.0 42.9


    Not bad.

    This isn't to say that James will continue shooting lights out in the clutch, but he's certainly outdoing anything we've seen in recent times.
     
  5. jlwee

    jlwee Member

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    If you looked at the Heat's squad that closed out games, Lebron, Wade, Miller, Bosh and Haslem, all five of them can play on both sides of the floor. Whereas Mavs' five, Dirk, Kidd, Chandler, Terry and Marion, two of them are handicapped on offensive end. If you put Peja and JJ in, their defensive will suffer. So it will be interested to see what adjustment will Carlisle make in game 2.
     
  6. BleedRocketsRed

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    Interesting stuff. And I believe you mean 2008 ('07-'08 means '08 playoffs).

    The most surprising part (at least to me) has to be the fact that outside LeBron/Dirk (as one will obviously win it this year), only two players on that list won the championship that season ('09 Kobe and '08 Garnett) and both are near the bottom of the list.
     
  7. PeppermintCandy

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    Yeah, this is where not having Caron Butler really hurts. A guy with size who can shoot and drive, and isn't a defensive sieve could really open up the game for the Mavs.

    Carlisle definitely has his work cut out for him. He's got to figure out how to free up Nowitzki in the fourth quarter, but outside of his shooters taking turns getting hot, his options are pretty limited.
     
  8. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    TV ratings for Dallas Mavericks-Miami Heat Game 1 best since 2004

    http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/sto...s-mavericks-miami-heat-game-1-best-since-2004

    Television ratings for the Mavericks-Heat NBA Finals are off to an impressive start, as Game 1 earned a 10.7 overnight Nielsen rating, meaning that 10.7 percent of homes with a TV set in 56 top markets tuned in for the game. That overnight number is the highest for an NBA Finals Game 1 since Pistons-Lakers got an 11.5 in 2004. It even out-rated last year’s Game 1, featuring the ratings darlings Lakers and Celtics, which drew a 10.4 overnight.

    In an apples-to-apples comparison that demonstrates the drawing power of LeBron James, Game 1 between the Heat and Mavericks in 2006 pulled a 9.3 overnight. Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki, after all, played in that series, too.

    While the Heat have driven solid, sometimes record-breaking viewership numbers all postseason, there’s one factor that could derail the ratings success for these Finals – a short series.

    The longer a series goes, in most cases, the higher the ratings get.
     
  9. jlwee

    jlwee Member

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    Yup, having Butler and probably Beaubois who can attack the rim will change the outcome of the finals.
     
  10. Matt_Maloney

    Matt_Maloney Rookie

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    LOL I HAD TO TYPE THIS IN ALL CAPS BECAUSE IS THIS DUDE FORGETTING THAT NOWITZKI IS LIKE 2 FEET TALLER THAN PEJA?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
     
  11. tehG l i d e

    tehG l i d e Member

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    Well Dirk can shoot but he's not known primarily to be a perimeter player so..
     
  12. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    It wasn't a lie, 45 wins is what you'd expect if LBJ didn't play out of his mind this season. WHo could have predicted he'll be able to play 45 minutes of godly basketball all season long without getting tired by playoff time? I simply don't think the league has seen such an astounding physical specimen ever.
     
  13. Steve_Francis_rules

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    Anyone who had ever seen him play before.
     
  14. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    Sarcasm? Not sure.. So I will just respond just in case you were serious.

    Lebron took a team of scrubs to 60 wins last year, so what makes you think with Wade and Bosh, he could only get 45 wins?
    Because of Wade and Bosh, Lebron didn't have to go pull the off load every game, which gave him rest for the playoffs.
    Lebron Wade and Bosh by joining together, have added years to each others careers.
     
  15. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Minutes per game by LBJ last season: 39
    Minutes per game by LBJ this season: 38.8

    So playing with Wade and Bosh gave him 0.02 minutes rest per game, and that helped him how? :confused:

    In the playoffs, Lebron is actually playing 44 minutes a game, not sure how you can say they have added to each other's career when all three of them have had to carry such an enormous burden this season, Wade's body actually broke down due to the stress. I'm not sure why you think them teaming together have added to each other careers, maybe if they manage to get a quality wing who can split time with Lberon but right now I'd say they're shaving years of their career lifespan.
     
  16. Jonhty

    Jonhty Member

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    i think their usages are down.
     
  17. Octavianus

    Octavianus Member

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    Really? Lebron doesn't have to score 30 points a game to win anymore, and if he has a bad night, he has Wade and Bosh to help him out. Visa Versa.

    Wade got injured driving into the crowed in game 5 at Boston, other then that he is fine.

    I get your point, but my point is, is that they can all share the load now, instead of it being on one person.

    Right now, Lebron is so fit, he can play 44 minutes quite easily, and do it over a 7 game finals.
     
  18. PeppermintCandy

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    This dude is talking about the guards and small forwards who can complement Nowitzki at power forward. I thought that was obvious.
     
  19. Rockets Pride

    Rockets Pride Member

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    Octavinousadf a heat fan since summer of 2010
     
  20. _RTM_

    _RTM_ Member

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