I've always been fascinated by demographics and have been thinking that a lot of the angst on the popular Right is a response to changes in society that are more felt then identified and that a number of Repub actions (like TX redistricting) can be chalked up to a very keen awareness that these changes are taking place. Anyway, here's an interesting paper by a guy who is admittedly a Dem... http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdf Excerpts:
an update Hispanic Population, Rising Faster Than Anticipated, A 'Huge Weapon' For Obama WASHINGTON -- The biggest political story over the past week didn't involve a bus tour, sordid tweets sent from a congressman's account or even the posturing over whether to raise the nation's debt ceiling. Instead, it was the no-thrills release of a 16-page report by the Census bureau, which underscored a massive paradigm shift in how politics is conducted. On May 26, the Census released what an official at the bureau described as "the latest, most up to date data on the Hispanic population in the United States." The numbers, culled from its 2010 survey, tell a remarkable -- albeit anticipated -- story: The Hispanic population is growing at a rate much faster than any other demographic. "The new census data affirms that one of the great stories of the 21st century is the changing majority of America from a majority white country to a majority minority country," said Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of NDN, a Democratic-leaning think tank that has focused heavily on Hispanic issues. "From a national political standpoint it’s a huge development."
And yet here in Texas, where Latino voters are easily the fastest growing demographic, they keep getting redistricted out of the power that should reflect their numbers. A case in point... the most recent potential congressional redistricting map the state GOP legislative committee has put out divides Travis County, still heavily Democratic, into 5 districts, this despite a tradition in Texas (tossed out by DeLay and company's machinations) of having major Texas cities represented largely by a congressional district centered on the city. In doing so, the city's Latino population has been royally screwed, with their votes divided up to such an extent that their ability to help their demographic in Austin will be hurt severely.
In Arizona and New Mexico there are more minorities combined then whites and look who they elected as Governor of AZ. Got to get them to the polls first.
from the article I posted -- "Every 30 seconds a Latino turns the age of 18," he told The Huffington Post. "There are about 11 million Latinos over the age of 18 who are U.S citizens and not yet registered to vote. 2.4 million of them reside in Texas, 2.2 million reside in California. Can you imagine if half of them got registered in Texas, how it would change the politics there?"
So Republicans are against doing anything to stop illegal immigration because it helps big business and freezes wages in certain occupations. Democrats are against doing anything to stop illegal immigration because they think it helps their future in polls. Awesome.
Voter participation is very low in young black and hispanic populations. Even if they turn 18, they don't vote. When they start paying income taxes, that's when they usually care enough to do participate. At 18 or 19, your job pays so little, that you get actually get more tax "refund" back than you paid in the bottom tax bracket.
Hispanic voter turnout is abysmal and unless that changes a lot of this is meaningless. Take sharpstown for example. Caucasians are around 15% of the state house district over there and make up over 50% of registered voters. A seat that should always go democratic based on demographics is in fact a routine struggle to hold the seat. And if you look at places like the Valley in Texas, those areas always vote democrat but their numbers are pretty terrible. You'll often find voter turnout for school board elections to be double that of say an off year general election. People care heavily about local politics but care far less for statewide and national issues. This speaks to the larger disconnect among the hispanic community with national issues and elections. Oftentimes a statewide or national campaign has to piggyback on events for local issues just to get any facetime when in every other part of the country its the opposite. The local guys will piggyback off of the statewide and national candidates. It doesnt help that the Texas Democratic Party has been largely incompetent and doesnt understand these types of dynamics. We have a bunch of dinosaurs running the state party and most of those guys dont even understand some basic fundamentals about campaigning since democrats dominated Texas without trying for such a long time. The Republicans are better organized and understand that messages need to be simple. Until the democrats figure that out, demographics wont mean anything.
I don't think it's meaningless. Yes, of course, this statistics won't be making an immediate effect. But as purchasing power of the hispanic community increases, they will be able to be more organized and efficient with their money (pool for larger investments). With these investments on the line (businesses, properties, etc), they will want their say in politics. As you pointed out, I see the changes taking place at a local level first before affecting state or national elections but future implications are huge.
I think as they attain more affluence and become business leaders, they will tend to be less Democrat too.
It sort of is. Most illegal immigrants are Latino. And these illegal immigrants do constitute a sizable percentage of the population.
This article is about US citizens/voters,which does not entail the guy who hiked up from San Luis Potosi last week to clean your toilet. But for you two, at least, the "damned bean-eatin' illegals" subroutine proved too tempting. Fun.
Okay, then I suppose you agree that any person showing up to vote must prove his or her citizenship. If not, off to the deportation center without any further ado.
Why don't you show me one illegal alien who has ever voted, ever. And why don't you do it in another thread. And we can name it "paranormal activities" so that we can discuss other imaginary phenomenon that scare you like anal probes.
Very good point. But I still see repubs trying to redistrict off any hispanics regardless of their economic strength. This will keep hispanics as democrats for a very long time.
