Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

yup. that's what i think.

the heat's defense is pack the paint, and only help if a team has a penetrator that can weaken their defense by penetrating the paint.

dirk is not a penetrator, nor is he a power player who can go inside and wreak havoc. he's a jumpshooter.

the heat have versatile defender who is able to stay with him on the floor and contest his shots. if he's going to make 10+ contested jumpshots over haslem/lebron all game, they'll take that.

people are under-estimating how critical their role players, esp 3pt shooters, for their offense. i don't think the heat can afford to let the mavs get hot from downtown.

the lakers and thunder did not have that versatile defender to throw at dirk. the heat do.

but that is how i would guard dirk. i don't think he'll get the foul calls he has been getting with haslem/lebron guarding him.

 

could garnett or noah stop LA's front-court?

 

the heat's offense will EXPLODE vs the mavs. the thunder would win the past 2 games if KD had some semblance of a 1-on-1 game. on the other hand, lebron and wade are the TWO BEST 1-on-1 players in this league. they will go OFF on the mavs and get to the line at will.

and bosh will finally have a sense of relief not having to face elite defenders.

the mavs are still a jumpshooting team. the miami heat defense THRIVES off of jumpshooting team b/c they can use their athleticism and quickness to challenge shots.

like i said, the toughest series for the heat was the celtics b/c boston had a mental edge on lebron. the heat do not fear the mavs, just like they do not fear the bulls.

i expect the heat to beat the mavs in 5 or 6. just like i thought the heat would beat the bulls in 5 or 6.

yes they would. gasol would have been destroyed even more with that psyche of his coming in after the hornets series if he had to face KG or noah. but gasol was a beaten dude during the hornets series.

the mavs couldn't stop bynum to save their lives.

let's not talk about dirk. how will the mavs guard the heat? that's the more important question. lebron has faced 3 elite defenders in a row in iggy, pierce, and deng and is still putting up 26, 9, and 6 on 47%. now he will be facing either marion or possibly peja? c'mon, this will be abusive.

wade will now go against kidd/terry? kidd was able to contain kd b/c of his poor 1-on-1 game, but wade is one of the best at that.

bosh going against chandler/haywood b/c dirk won't guard anybody of importance. and those guys will guard him the same way: try to stop bron/wade first, and bosh will get those easy buckets. his performance won't change much: he'll give 18-20 pts consistently.

but we'll finally see lebron and wade go off together for the first time in the playoffs.

 

You also included Elton Brand like he is some type of defensive juggernaut.

 

he is a very underrated defender. the sixers are a pretty good defensive team, and brand's strength and ability to block shots make him a pretty damn decent defender.

 

You could say the same thing about Tyson Chandler in terms of ability to block shots.

Point is it is silly to think the Heat are breathing a sigh of relief now that they have to face Dirk and Tyson Chandler .

 

the mavs are NOWHERE near the defensive teams the celtics and bulls are, nowhere close. the thunder were able to score on them AT WILL outside of game 3 if they had better 1-on-1 players in the 4th quarters of games. so no, the heat will not be worried about how to score vs the mavs b/c they will have very little problem doing so.

tyson chandler is very underrated and he will be a problem. but if he's on bosh, and bosh is usually out on the perimeter, i don't see how dirk and company can stop lebron or wade from getting to the basket at will.

dirk hasn't been challenged defensively ALL playoffs, and he will be challenged in the finals. expect when the heat go small, dirk will be put in a ton of pick and rolls or isos if he's matched up with lebron. we all know dirk is a very poor defender. the teams the mavs have faced have been unable to punish the mavs for that. all dirk has had to do is score, score, score and pretty much do nothing else.

the heat's problem is to stay on the role players (jet/barea) b/c the mavs have a killer OFFENSIVE bench. i think they should let dirk go 1-on-1 all game, and just stay on the other guys.

if jason terry and barea each get 15-20 points a game, the mavs WILL win this series.

 

The Celtics have routinely played the Lakers frontcourt very well. And last I checked Bynum got whatever he wanted against Dallas. Gasol wasn't himself that series, or the series before.

Either way, Bosh has a completely different game than Gasol or Bynum, so that matchup doesn't hold much relevance.

 

Is Tyson Chandler a defensive juggernaut? Fine, throw Brand out (even though I think you are underrating him). I still see Bosh breathing a sigh of relief after what he has seen in the last two series.

There is nothing silly about it. Bosh and the Heat have faced two elite defensive pivots and elite defensive teams in the last two rounds. Chandler and the Mavs defense is a step back from that and I don't see how anyone can argue otherwise. I doubt Noah will play any better individual defense than KG or Noah, and if he is on Bosh then he is pulled away from the basket, which is not what you want when LeBron & Wade are on the team. And Dirk can't hold you. Not having to actually defend anyone in the postseason can fool you into thinking someone still doesn't play garbage defense.

 

Aside from T_mac1, Icehouse, and I sharing the same sentiments on the possibility of Dirk coming back down to Earth due to the fact that he's going to finally have to actually guard his man (instead of floating around like he has been the past 5 games or so), I think another thing the Mavericks need to worry about is who is going to guard Wade and I say this is because LeBron is pretty much going to destroy Marion.

You start Stevenson on Wade and, while that might be a good plan, you don't want to leave Stevenson in there for too long since he can't hit anything. This would, of course, leave Terry and Barea on the bench far longer than Carlisle would like.

You slide Kidd over to guard Wade and have Stevenson guard Bibby. This is probably the best case scenario for the Mavericks to start the game but it might actually come back to bite them in the ass if Wade can/will draw fouls on penetrating drives. You put Kidd on the bench early with foul trouble and there's no one left that can contain Wade.

The only thing that could tip the scales towards a Mavericks' advantage against Wade is if Wade is really physically beat up. There's been far too many instances against the Bulls where the dude basically looked physically spent.

 

t_mac1 has a very good point on putting Chandler on Bosh. It sounds dumb to take him outside of the paint like that.

 

What else would he be doing? Dirk is always taking jumpshots. The Heat and pretty much nobody in the league have anybody that can really hold Dirk 1 on 1. If his shot is on you better double or you are in trouble.

 

I shared the same sentiment a couple of pages back. But the problem, though some have argued, is that you draw Chandler out that far and Dallas would lose their best rebounder under the basket. I am willing to bet that Dirk is not going to box out Joel Anthony if the situation arises. The best bet, IMO, for the Mavericks is just Zone D which has been their bread and butter all season. The Heat shooters have been mercurial and that would play very nicely into Dallas' game plan.

 

+1. the mavs will struggle more guarding lebron/wade than the heat guarding dirk. i expect lebron/wade to have a field day with this mavs' defense.

wade's play vs the bulls may be a reason of worry to the heat as he has looked lackadaisacal and just not into it for most of the series. he's been pretty much awful outside of most of game 2. if wade plays like he has the bulls, it'll be much harder for the heat to beat the mavs. however, i'll attribute a lot of wade's struggles to the defense of bogans and brewer, and the great defensive big men of the bulls.

however, i just see disaster when the mavs go small (and they do a lot in order to create space for dirk, and put in their 3pt shooters). i simply see jason terry or barea just getting DESTROYED by wade when the heat go to the lineup of wade/miller/lebron/haslem/bosh. this will force carlisle to adjust. if he doesn't go small, that negates their bench a little bit, which is their biggest advantage over the heat.

the heat will go small, as they love to do. if you want chandler to be in the paint, then dirk will be forced to guard bosh. bosh will then have a field day. if chandler guards bosh, i'm assuming that chandler will protect the paint and give up wide open Js to bosh, and he's been knocking them down all playoffs.

the heat simply have more matchups in their favor vs the mavs. this will be the 2nd easiest series after the sixers.

great counter-point. i do expect the mavs to zone up quite a bit b/c they simply cannot match up with the heat defensively. this is why you will see james jones play more in this series. and after jones lit them up for a quarter or two, they'll stop the zone. having jones in the game does not alter their "going small" gameplan at all.

 

I don't think Dirk will make half of his shots against Miami.

 

Their zone D doesn't seem to be able to keep attacking guards out of the lane though.

 

the heat do not double team perimeter players unless a pick and roll is involved b/c they have the ATHLETES (they are arguably the most athletic team in the L). they never doubled kobe, rose, durant or anybody during the reg season. if you're going to beat the heat making jumpshots, they'll live with them.

if dirk can take and make 10+ tough jumpshots every game, then his reputation will continue to grow. but don't expect 10+ free throws from him at all vs the heat.

EDIT: if kobe was the kobe of 2-3 years ago, the lakers would have beaten the mavs with relative ease. but this year's kobe couldnt' get to the basket to save his life, making it so easy to guard the lakers in general (and compound that with gasol having confidence issues)

 

Haha funny you mention that since I have said the same thing to some of my friends during the OKC series as Harden and Westbrook got to the basket at will. Still, I think the zone is the best chance Dallas has against Miami.

In all honesty, if Carlisle thinks that throwing anyone at LeBron is futile, he might as well put Dirk on him and slide Marion over to guard Bosh. Sure LeBron would erupt for 35 + every night but, if Dirk stays out of foul trouble and can still score effectively althewhile having Marion contain Bosh, I think that's a win win for Dallas.

 

You sure you want to go out on a limb and say that? Quite the statement when you are talking about a guy who for his career doesn't make half his shots and has only done it twice ever in a season.

 

What's killing me is everyone is going ga-ga about what Dirk has done this postseason while LeBron is scoring 2 points less and outrebounding him, all while facing better defensive teams.