Do you expect the Rockets to have a better record than 43-39 next year?

If we make the playoffs next year we lose our first round pick in a very deep draft. That would hurt the Rocket's future a lot more than a few extra wins. To ensure we keep that pick I see us playing a lot more TWill, Hill, and Thabeet, while possibly letting Hayes go in free agency. In fact, I believe Morey made a comment on that where he said a team in our current situation cannot afford to overpay for guys like Hayes/Nick Collison.

 

I don't get this "the way the lottery is now" talk. If you have a bottom 4 record, you might not get the #1 pick, but it WILL be a high one. You don't need the absolute top pick to draft a good player you can build around. Especially in a draft as deep as next year.

Things might not be decided yet at the beginning of the season, when everyone is 0-0. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know, yes KNOW, the Houston Rockets as currently constructed have a 0% chance of winning a championship. So with that in mind, all "win the ****ing games" will get you is potentially losing the lottery protected pick we traded away.

 

The front office has been criticized for saying too much. Maybe they learned their lesson and are now hiding their true intentions? Who knows. I think what they do on draft night, IF they can pull anything off, would be more of an indication of which direction they want to go in. Instead of just their words.

Giving a bad player more minutes isn't going to turn him good. However, giving an unknown player more minutes might shed more light on whether he is good or bad. While Twill, Hill, and Thabeet are closer to bad than unknown, I don't think it is set in stone yet where they are complete lost causes. Also, while playing them more might not make them that much better, it might boost their numbers. A guy like Thabeet who put up 1 and 1 can only go up from there. While most teams now are informed enough to not fall for that, I'm sure there are still a few who judge players based on their points and rebounds, as opposed to impact on winning.

This is an argument that I believe in and have advocated myself. However, I think to truly judge what value is added and lost there are more factors than just that.

First, value lost on a losing team affects veterans much more than prospects. If we keep our team as is, then a losing season would impact Martin and Scola's value significantly, which would be a detriment for us going forward. However, if we traded both of them for picks in this year's(or next year's) draft, the guys we receive would retain their value much better in the face of a losing record. See: Favors, Derrick. Therefore, how detrimental a losing season is to the "asset" based strategy is influenced by the type of players you have on your team.

Second, while the argument for value lost is valid as long as you take into account personnel, to analyze the entire picture we also have to factor in value added. That of course is the increased value of your future draft picks. This is influenced by the depth of the draft too. Given that next year is supposedly one of the deeper drafts in recent memory, how much value is added with each increase in draft position? And how does that compare with the value lost from the overall team due to a marginally worse record? If 10 more losses meant going from the 10th pick to the 5th, is that more or less valuable than the value lost from our current players due to 10 more losses? I have no definitive answers to those questions. However, those are factors that must be taken into account, as opposed to the simple formula of more wins = greater asset value, less wins = less asset value.

Morey has suggested who to play to Adelman before: Jordan Hill. And he has shipped out players that the coach apparently loved to play: Aaron Brooks. Now Hill might have had more to do with increasing his value to trade him, and Brooks was certainly due to his contract situation, but still Morey would like to get in a word or two with his coaches I believe. In fact he was in constant conversation with Adelman on personnel, with suggestions not demands. I think that will remain the case when they bring in their next coach who is likely to be, let's say, more susceptible to suggestion.

 

We will be 26-24.

 

One more rebuilding year then we becoming a playoff team again and a few more years back to a western powerhouse with mind set on the championship. We need a star player who can stay healthy damn that would be so nice.

 

I hope worse. But if we don't tank, we'll win more games.

 

If team stays intact and Yao comes back strong - 49 wins
If team stays intact and Yao is done - 37 wins
If we make a move for Kanter - 25 wins

 

Well, we are already 3/4 of the way there now.

 

I personally think Adelman purposely screwed us by not tanking once we found out the final playoff standings. There were already rumors flying around at that time. That was the perfect time to play Hill, Will and Thabeet, but he decided to keep winning and we ended up with #14 again. He literally gave us the finger on the way out.

 

but a lottery pick in next years draft would more than likely give us a superstar, heck even the knicks pick could.

 

A coach paid to win games trying to win games..the audacity.

 

You're already calling that the 2012 draft isn't deep at the top either? When exactly is the draft supposed to be good again?

As for everything else you said - while I understand the desire to want to see your team win every game and feel it myself to an extent - I couldn't disagree with you more. It doesn't matter how low the odds are that you'll get the number one. We need some high lottery picks. Look at the four teams left. Miami drafted Wade in the top 5. Dallas acquired Nowitski in a draft day deal for high draft pick Tractor Traylor (RIP). OKC drafted Durant and Westbrook high. And Chicago drafted Rose and Noah. You just don't get good without drafting at least A superstar.

And I'd add that Rose is the only one of those guys who went number one.

 

Let's see they want to replace Adelman with McHale. Morey seems to be power hungry. They supposedly want to trade a key player (probably like Martin, Scola, Lowry) for an 18 year old center.............

Yeah, the Rockets are clearly in full-on tank mode.

 

Talent wins games, not coaches. If we keep our current lineup intact, and actually play to win- as in playing Hayes big minutes, keeping TWill, Hill, Thabeet off the floor- then we should continue our second half success with some marginal improvements. That should result in an overall better record.

As much as I would like to see that happen and laugh at the peanut gallery crying for Adelman now, I doubt the Rockets management are masochistic enough to go for that and sacrifice their first rounder in a deep draft. Or at least I hope not.

 

I hope they can make the playoff next season.....

 

I'd hope they'd find a way to improve. Hard to say with so many variables in place right now. What I do know is...

Way too many tankers on here these days.

If you have to lose on purpose to get an artificial chance at doing better the next year (not a guarantee on many levels) I would suggest that such a team has a deficiency in character, not to mention marketing.

Bad karma, in my book.

 

I like how CF are the only fans in the NBA dumb enough to think that Williams and Thabeet deserve to be on an NBA court. Even Grizz and Nets fans know better, lol...