You're missing the gigantic distinction that more teams in the NBA make the playoffs than miss the playoffs. Teams that play at or below .500 make the playoffs in basketball all the time....the drawn out 82-game regular season is essentially nothing more than seeding for a tournament that starts in April. That's completely different from a league where you play only 16 regular season games to see if you qualify for one of 6 spots among 16 teams in each conference. Having said all that...I don't think any of the 3 teams is any closer than the other. I think they all have to go backwards some to go forward. I think the Astros have acknowledged that earlier than the others, and that might help them....but it also takes far longer to build a quality baseball team than it does a basketball team by shear numbers alone. But the Aeros are GOING TO WIN THE CALDER CUP!
Matt and Adam also talked about how the Texans are such a young team, and a great point was made. Often on this board the point is made (by a few of the homers) that this Texans team has so much young talent!!!!1 just waiting to explode. They made the point that the reason the Texans always have so much young talent is because they never have a team full of good players so they are constantly replacing them with draft picks. Who are also not very good so they get replaced with draft picks. Under Kubiak, the Texans seem to draft "contributors" in almost every round. And even the ones who never play still get a roster spot. Then the next draft comes and they do the same. Yet they don't get better or deeper. They are just recycling young players.
This is what I've been saying for the last 3 or 4 years. We are perpetually "building through the draft". That's a good plan for the first 5 or 6 years of the team's existence, but after a while, if you want to stop talking up your potential every year and actually make a move to be great, you have to roll the dice in free agency. And unlike others, I don't think we're so young and full of potential anymore. Our star players aren't in their early 20's anymore. Schaub, AJ, OD, Mario, DeMeco are closer to the twilight of their careers than a lot of people realize. Our window is closing faster than people seem to think.
The window is basically sliding shut. What I fear happening is that this team will finally get to the playoffs in two years, flame out in the first round, and then be back at the drawing board trying to rebuild a team. All the while Kubiak will be "aw shuxing" all the way to the bank with another contract extension...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/don_banks/05/11/texans/index.html As the NFL's labor fight rolls into a third full month, I can't imagine the lockout is more excruciating anywhere than in Houston, a city that last tasted the postseason in 1993, far and away the league's longest drought. Nowhere is the sense of urgency and eagerness for the 2011 season higher. Everyone from Texans owner Bob McNair on down understands exactly what's at stake. The time is now for these Texans. The NFL's latest expansion franchise will play its anniversary 10th season this fall, and embarrassingly still has no playoff berths to show for its almost decade-long existence. In a soul-deadening offseason like none other, there's somehow still a palpable feeling of anticipation in Houston this year, and with good reason. Moving to finally fix their fatal flaw, the Texans shrewdly hired veteran defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, and then set about transforming Houston's 4-3 scheme into the 3-4 formation that Phillips has succeeded with over the years. It has been no mere rearrangement of the deck chairs on the Titanic. This will not be the Texans defense of the Richard Smith or Frank Bush coordinator eras. Phillips, as always, is talking about attacking the quarterback. He's stressing athleticism, effort, and attitude, and he's willing to shake things up, making the risky call of shifting 6-7, 290-pound (for now) defensive end Mario Williams to an edge-rushing weakside linebacker role. We may not yet buy the DeMarcus Ware comparison that Phillips has made in regards to Williams and his new role, but that's what makes Houston's gamble intriguing. The Texans are reinventing themselves on defense, even if they are doing it all without any current access to the players, amidst a lockout. Houston spent its first five picks in last month's draft on defensive parts for its new 3-4, headlined, of course, by the selection of Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt in the first round (11th overall) and Arizona outside linebacker Brooks Reed in the second (42nd). You almost can't wait to see how it all plays out in Houston, which slipped back to 6-10 and last place in the AFC South in 2010 after 2009's hopeful 9-7 finish. But then again, we have to. While the Texans have had themselves as good an offseason as anyone in the NFL so far, no one knows when it will end and the games begin. And that has to be making the already tough task of being an optimistic Texans fan that much harder. "There should be excitement about this season,'' Texans general manager Rick Smith said this week. "Because I think everyone knows how potent we can be on offense. And when you look at our defense, and you think about what Wade can bring to the table, and you think about the guys we've added in the draft and what we could potentially add in free agency, it does get you excited. Because we've got a chance to realize our potential and hopefully take this organization and this franchise to places we've not been before.'' Meaning January's 12-team Super Bowl tournament. It might sound far-fetched at the moment, but is the thought of Phillips, the ex-Cowboys head coach, inspiring a playoff-bound defensive turnaround in Houston this season all that much more implausible than the work turned in by defensive coordinators Gregg Williams in New Orleans in 2009 and Dom Capers in Green Bay in 2010? All three ex-head coaches teamed with established head coaches -- Gary Kubiak in Houston, Sean Payton in New Orleans and Mike McCarthy in Green Bay. And just as in the case of the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints and Packers the past two years, the offensive pieces are already in place in Houston, and it's the defense that needs an upgrade. There's nothing tricky about the task facing the Texans: Houston finished third overall on offense in 2010, and fourth in the passing game. It has top-shelf playmakers in quarterback Matt Schaub, NFL rushing leader Arian Foster at running back and receiver Andre Johnson. But the Texans defense was abysmal, finishing 30th overall and dead last against the pass, with a staggering 33 touchdown passes allowed and a league-worst 100.5 opposing passer rating. Phillips' charge on defense is clear: If he rebuilds it, the wins should come. It's a coordinator quick-fix job he has performed well in other turnaround situations like Atlanta in 2002 and San Diego in 2004. If he can manage it once more in Houston, his famous father, former Oilers head coach Bum, might not always be the most revered Phillips in town. "Wade's already a rock star in this town,'' Smith said, with a laugh. "He really is. I got a chance to see that in some of the social events that have happened since he's been here, and it's the way people respond and react to him. But the biggest thing is when you look at history and see what he's done and what he's been able to accomplish, and how some of his previous spots had situations that really mirror what we have going on here. I think that's the reason why a lot of people are excited about the Houston Texans and what we might be able to accomplish in 2011. "Expectations are always high in Houston, but I think the excitement level is high because we're a good enough football team to meet those expectations now.'' They'd better. McNair is easily the most patient owner in the NFL, but when he decided to bring Kubiak back for a sixth season in 2011, he let it be known he expects the playoff drought to end. And why not wave that red flag? Kubiak is now tied for the seventh-most tenured head coach in the NFL, but all six of the men above him on that list have made the playoffs at least twice, with a combined 28 postseason berths earned. Kubiak has a modest .463 career winning percentage, just one winning record (9-7 in 2009), and the two coaches who just claimed the most recent Super Bowls (Payton and McCarthy) were fellow members of the NFL's 2006 rookie head coaching class (both have three playoff trips in five years). So it's long since time to take a bold step to rectify Houston's defensive issues, while simultaneously trying to not fix what wasn't broken on offense. The Texans are still chasing the Colts, who have made the playoffs all nine seasons of Houston's existence. Houston is banking that the way to finally slow down Peyton Manning and Indy's passing game is to exert consistent pass pressure with an aggressive front seven that eases the burden on the Texans' notoriously weak secondary. It all sounds good. But now it has to work. Well, if not now, then by the time actual football returns in a post-labor-addled NFL world. Whenever that may arrive. "We were obviously disappointed last year with the results of the season,'' said Smith, who is entering his sixth season as the Texans GM. "I really felt we had made progress and thought last year we had a legitimate chance to be a playoff team. When it didn't happen, you really had to be honest with yourself and critically evaluate what the issues were and why you didn't achieve your goals. And we did that. I think we've identified those things and we've taken steps to rectify them. And the first one was hiring Wade.'' That was both Houston's first step, and its biggest one. Phillips has hit the film room with a vengeance, trying to learn the strengths and weaknesses of his players, and the draft brought in some valuable pieces for a quick transition to the multiple and shifting 3-4 defensive front he depends upon. When and if free agency starts, look for Houston to be in the market for a starting cornerback, although Nnamdi Asomugha's break-the-bank price tag might be beyond the Texans' willingness to spend. Still, as the stagnant summer of 2011 looms, there's new hope in Houston, even if there is no football to be played or practiced for the time being. The lockout and labor stand-off continues, and so does the wait that comes with it. But for the Texans and their beleaguered defense, the promise of better days might have finally arrived.
So what I find frustrating is that...when an article is typically written about a sports franchise where the author says, "the time is now..." they're usually talking about knocking on the door for a championship. Here we're talking about a playoff appearance. Now make no mistake about it....I would be THRILLED with a playoff appearance. But we've maintained status quo setting "playoff appearance" as the goal. We talk about HOPING that our defense can just be average. Geezamonkey, does that frustrate anyone other than me?
IMO, getting there is the hard part. If the Texans can make the playoffs with the schedules that they play, they should be as good as anybody that they face once they're there. And in the NFL, ANYTHING can happen once you're there.
I totally agree with that. Having said that, if they slide into the last spot in the playoffs and are summarily ass-whooped out in the first game, I think the Texans still play it like it's Mission Accomplished and reward everyone with 20 year extensions.
Hey, it beats the Rockets red koolaid fanboys celebrating the teams' 14th place finish. But frustrate is too strong a word for me because I basically expect nothing from the Texans given their history (when they show me they know how to put a winning team on the field, I'll start to have expectations). But I did read with great amusement the Wade Phillips is a rock star quote from Smith. I suppose this means that Coach FixIt is now the official savior of professional football in Houston. Having caught his act up here in Dallas, I have my doubts about Wade's methods so I essentially see this move as more of a last-ditch gamble than a sure thing. It does, however, bring to mind a quote from one of my favorite movies: "Sometimes, you just have to go for it".
I think it's much easier than that: They've been inexplicably reluctant to balance out their drafting with key veteran additions. When you build through the draft *literally* - at the expense of virtually any other personnel decisions - you're going to very obviously have a roster full of mostly young guys. The Kareem Jackson situation is this regime in a nutshell: They rightly identified a problem and then promptly threw a rookie at it. Offensively, that might work because Kubiak has a proven system that works and he knows the kinds of players he needs. They've never had that defensively and until they brought in Phillips, were seemingly oblivious to it. Building through the draft should produce a young, talented core designed to be here for 5+ years. You then accentuate it with a revolving door of higher-quality veterans that can fill holes around the core. You can win with Williams, Ryans, Cushing - maybe even Jackson - if you supplement them with.... Richard Seymour, (Sorry - blanking on other readily available guys the past several years but you get the idea.) I'm hoping Phillips corrects this and stresses the importance of finding experience and previous success to sprinkle amongst the core.
sounds like more wisdom from those on the radio in houston. they get paid to tell folks that first rounders get more time to develop sometimes than fifth rounders? i'm shocked!
http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/23926/cody-mitchell-preparing-to-take-on-skeptics Cody, Mitchell preparing to take on skeptics Shaun Cody's got a stable full of doubters, but the faith of one key person. He understands the latter and intends to prove himself worthy of the former. How is the seventh-year defensive tackle who’s “just” 304 pounds going to man the nose in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 front? Fans and analysts are skeptical, but Phillips has repeatedly pronounced that Cody and second-year man Earl Mitchell will be fine in the nose tackle spot, a key to most 3-4s. “When you hear 3-4 defense, the thing that pops in your mind is you want a big, huge, mountain of a guy who’s 350, 350-plus in the center of it,” Cody said. “That’s what I thought until I heard how Wade Phillips wants to do it, how he’s had undersized guys before. That’s what gave me the confidence about the kind of role I’ll be in. “There are always going to be naysayers and guys who want a change. But I think Earl and I will be good for the job and we’ll hold it down for them.” Phillips is charged with revamping a defense that ranked dead last (268 ypg) against the pass in 2010 and gave up 74 points more than the league average. He got a defense-heavy draft class that didn’t include a nose tackle and initially cast Mario Williams and Bruce Smith at defensive end, but now has Williams as a weak outside linebacker with the hope he will become DeMarcus Ware. Recently, in clarifying how the outside linebackers will be deployed, Phillips said it will function more like a 5-2. That’s a scheme that will put a strain on the corners, a topic for another column. There is, at this point, an element of mystery about what Phillips’ defense will look like with his Texans personnel. One coach told me he expects it will amount to an "under" defense with a four-man line, with Williams always standing up on the open end of the line. If that's the case then identifying the fourth rusher, the big challenge in facing a 3-4 scheme like Pittsburgh’s, won’t be a mystery with Houston and Williams. Both Cody (who was listed at 6-foot-4, 304 pounds last season) and Mitchell (6-3, 291) will be looking to show the system can work with a less-than-giant nose guard. It will be more of an adjustment for Mitchell, who started his college career at Arizona as a fullback before moving to defense. Cody won’t see a great change from the way he lined up in last season’s 4-3, and he and Mitchell will not be responsible for two gaps the way monster defensive tackles in many 3-4s are. “I’ve had huge nose guards,” Phillips said after the Texans’ recent golf tournament. “They’ve all played different techniques because of what their body type was and what they could do well. Greg Kragen, who was in the Pro Bowl in Denver, was smaller than the guys we have now. I know the league is bigger now. But he was one of the smaller guys and he played it really, really well. “Cody actually played the technique that we play with our nose quite a bit last year in some of the under defense they ran and played it well.” During a break in his day in Southern California earlier this week, Cody said he understands his role and his niche. He was part of the Detroit team that didn’t win a game in 2008. As a free agent following that season he visited New Orleans and Houston before signing with the Texans. “I think and I hope I’m known for stopping the run,” he said. “I’ve played predominantly on first and second down and I think I’ve done a good job of it and I think that’s one of the reasons they wanted me back … “Every guy wants to rush the passer and I’d love to help more with that. But we have a great bunch of pass rushers on this team. I’m a team guy first. I know that D-linemen love rushing the quarterback and I love rushing the quarterback, too. But to be on a team where you can have a role on it, I love filling out that role.” In discussing Cody and Mitchell, Phillips has also talked of Jay Ratliff, his undersized nose tackle in Dallas. Mitchell actually has common friends with Ratliff and plans to talk with him soon, picking his brain. But Ratliff won’t be able to pass along to Mitchell his super-violent hands, a key to Ratliff's effectiveness. “I’ll ask him what goes into being productive in this defense and about what I can expect,” Mitchell said. “He knows Wade Phillips and he understands what he wants to get done in this defense. It’s my first time playing 3-4 and I want to understand the best way to be a productive part of the team. I’ve watched a lot of his film, I think I can do a lot of things that he does. It gives me a good sense of the defense coming this year.” Both Cody and Mitchell met Phillips briefly before the lockout, and the new coordinator was able to convey his confidence in them. While Phillips’ vision for Williams has evolved, his approach to the middle of the defensive line has not. Cody, who was heading for his second tour of unrestricted free agency, was one of the handful of players around the league who got a new contract before the labor impasse reached a boiling point. Phillips has not been on the field for work with either player. He saw enough on tape, though, to tell coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith they could spend draft picks on other spots, and the team got defensive end J.J. Watt, linebacker Brooks Reed, cornerbacks Brandon Harris and Rashad Carmichael, safety Shiloh Keo and linebacker Cheta Ozougwu. Both Cody and Mitchell said they appreciate Phillips’ faith, and are determined toshow he was right to have it. “It’s a big deal for me,” Mitchell said. “I feel honored. I have a great deal of respect for the man and just being able to be mentioned, going into just my fourth year ever playing defensive tackle, it gives me a good feeling. I have to go out there and prove him right … “A lot of people are skeptical. But I know the player that I am. I don’t buy into what people are saying. I don’t really listen to critics. All the stuff people are saying, that’s the stuff that motivated me to get into the NFL in the first place. I know what I can do as a player. I’m going to show my motor, keep playing.” Said Cody: “My whole career I’ve been in a 4-3 and I’ve always wondered what I could do in a 3-4, what kind of player I’d be in that system. It’s exciting. Hopefully I can prove I can play in any system and be a good football player.”
Remembering an amazing draft: 2006 http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6528474 Rick Reilly redrafted the 1st round of the 06-08 drafts. '06 - Mario Williams is still #1 overall. Demeco, Eric Winston and Owen Daniels are first rounders. Texans had the most redraft first rounders so you could say we had the best draft class that year. '07 - Okoye drops 67 spots to 77. Bleh. '08 - Duane Brown manages to remain in the first round, though he dropped 4 spots to 30. In a year where an incredible 7 OT's were drafted before Brown, 4 of them managed to go off the board before him in the redraft. Really a sick draft for OT's.
:medal heard that yesterday too and it did nothing but further cement my belief that kubiak et al are absolutely clueless. there is a direct correlation between defensive experience (ie age) and winning and since the beginning of the kubiak era we have routinely been on the far, far, far opposite end of that trend. they said it best... it's as if they realize the trend but somehow convince themselves that they can somehow reverse. and yet here we are... year after year, w/ a terrible young defense and all we do... year after year, is replace young players with draft picks, hoping somehow we just happen to hit the jackpot. always building through the draft. these guys are completely incompetent... the evidence is overwhelming. and nothing will change until kubiak and rick smith are gone.
We've been the youngest defense in the league for what, 5 years now? How is that even possible? We're kicking father time's ass.
The worst part is, the one year we weren't like bottom 5 in defense (2009) was the year we played the NFC West. Gee, I wonder if there's any connection there? Our defensive performance in the Kubiak era seems to have been almost completely dependent on the offensive rankings of the teams we play... like we're completely at the mercy of the opposing team.
