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The Jerry West without Johnson Model of Team-Building

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, May 6, 2011.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    How many elite players joined 25 win teams via free agency?

    I didn't forget the "player choice" factor: As I said, Houston may not be Los Angeles, but it is not Utah or Cleveland and it is an attractive place for players when the team wins.

    Winning matters. The Clips who play in the same location don't have the same attraction to elite free agents. The Knicks spent the last decade in the lottery (and only has 42 wins to show for their 2 big acquisitions) despite being at a prime location. Remember the Bulls (with their big media market and all that Jordan/Pippen championship lore only a few years old) were one of the teams pursuing the fabled McGrady/Hill/Duncan free agent class? They ended up with Ron Mercer.
     
  2. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    I don't want to turn this into a random trade thread, but just off the top of my head these are some of the more realistic scenarios for either team-building strategies I would like to go after.

    Jerry West without his Johnson Model:

    Step 1. Trading Kevin Martin for Andre Iguodala. This is the type of incremental improvement that also balances out our roster that I can see us making.

    Step 2. Keep on trying to sign/trade for a starting center. Marc Gasol, Nene, Tyson Chandler are some of the free agents that I like. Obviously this step is WAY easier said than done. Might have to settle for Dalembert(eek).

    Kyle Lowry/Dragic
    Courtney Lee/Llull
    Andre Iguodala/Budinger
    Luis Scola/Patterson
    Center/Hayes

    I believe that is a team capable of winning 50+ games, but falling short of contending. It would certainly make the season worth watching, the team relevant, and keep some fans happy. I am not going to lie. I can get down with this. Keep rooting for my team, even though in the back of my mind I know we don't have much of a chance to win the whole thing. Meanwhile being patient and waiting for things to lineup to bring in a franchise player. It might take a few year to get that guy, but the winning would probably appease most fans, and rabid local sports writers(probably not).

    Cxbby 1 year rebuild Plan:

    Step 1. Trade up in this year's draft for the highest pick possible using a combination of Martin+ Hill/Twill/our first round picks.

    Step 2. Use that pick to draft one of the international bigs at the top of this year's draft class. Keep him over in Europe all of next year to continue developing, while the NBA is in lockup for part of the year.

    Step 3. If they are still on the team, START Twill and Thabeet. This should counter balance the positive contributions of Lowry, Lee and Scola. That combined with losing Martin should get us a very good pick for 2012.

    Step 4. Our own 2012 pick should be at a minimum in the top 10 range. If it is not top 5(damn you Lowry) then use a combination of our own pick, Knicks pick, and Scola to move as high as possible. If it is high enough, then we can keep those assets for further depth. Use the pick to draft one of the slew of potential franchise players available in the 2012 draft. Have faith that Morey made the right pick by sacrificing virgin blood upon his shrine.

    Step 5. ??????

    Step 6. Champions!@!!@@@!

    We would only have to "tank" for one year. Not even one year. Probably only a handful of games with the lock out. Honestly, who's even watching basketball next year. There will probably be a huge asterisk in the record books like 1998. We come out the other side with a lineup of

    Kyle Lowry/Dragic
    Lee/Llull
    2012 pick/Budinger
    Patrick Patteron/Hayes(might still have Scola)
    2011 pick

    That is a team that has youth and young veterans. Ready to win. Reminds me of a OKC, which I can certainly get excited for. And the cost is what? One year? Sure and our soul but who needs that? And for those who think draft picks are a crapshoot, I cannot stress enough how much of a fallacy that is. Yes there is luck involved, but not nearly to the extent that people are led to believe. The STRENGTH of our management team is talent evaluation and drafting. Give them the tools to be at their best. Give them the picks and they will deliver the goods.

    Looking over that and writing it out, I could probably get down with either scenario. Personally I would still go with rebuilding, since to me that is the quicker and higher% play(remember who is doing the drafting). But if we don't and go the Johnson-less route, I could see myself getting so hyped over winning a few games that I abandoning whatever logic I think I have now and change my mind to thinking we can win it all. I can see it now... Clucthfans thread title around Christmas time- "Franchise player? Who needs that when we have Kyle Freakin' Lowry!"
    OP by CXbby
    :(
     
    #22 CXbby, May 8, 2011
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  3. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    There are only a few teams who attracts elite FA just by the location and brand prestige:
    Lakers
    Celtics
    Bulls
    Knicks

    Every place else, you need to already have a star to attract a star.
     
  4. cyntil8ing

    cyntil8ing Member

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    Yes, winning is undeniably a part of attracting stars. There is one caveat though, this is given the preferred destinations are aren't looking for stars. They are usually at the top of stars' list. I'd like to phrase this differently but i feel that we're a 2nd tier destination. We aren't the likes of Cleveland, Milwaukee, Utah and a few others. We're more akin to the other Texas teams, the Suns, Sonics (when they were still around), Portland, etc... All admirable destinations for player types that have Hoops in their mind and view the "brand" part as gravy.

    The Clips are just a class of their own. An exception to the rule by NBA standards. Your using them as an example is like saying John Doe got struck by lightning 5 times in a row. If we're not careful we could end up like them. While it is a possibility, the chances are astronomical. They are know for their chronic failure through the decades to advance the organization to any sort of contention. They have effectively made themselves an undesirable destination regardless of location by their own doing. Their series of choices resulted in 0 Conference Championships, 0 Division Championships, and 0 NBA championships in 41 years. They have also drafted 37 14th or better picks and 27 of those are top 10 picks. Nothing says leave or don't come to any player better than being effectively a joke of a franchise. If there was ever a poster child for an NBA retraction or mandating an ownership change, they would be it.

    The Knicks just shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with the FO decisions with Thomas at the helm and Dolan being a willing party. It's not that they lacked the prestige of location but that the different opportunities they were given were repeatedly blown time and time again over the past decade and despite that, they are still considered a favorable destination as we've witnessed regardless of record. I think the more knowledgeable people can get into the litany of the Knicks bad decisions as I don't know where to begin with their past decade of screw ups. Unlike the Clips though, this was blip in an otherwise historically competitive organization.

    The three names you mentioned: Yao was a big factor for McGrady and Hill is a character guy, as is Duncan. It's safe to say that, in retrospect, the 2 latter names you mentioned were more about the promise and delivery of an organization and the game than the glitz and glamor that they could have chosen.

    My point is, unless there's a current or soon-to-be free agent there that is a character player to begin with, we're probably not going to attract them without another notable talent. I have been thinking about what the Rox have to offer that could entice any of the big names and I can't seem to come up with one that more compelling than the big markets they can choose to go to (LA's sweep isn't helping us any either). Yes we're a great destination for hoops but I don't see why any true character players that would choose us. Would we truly elevate their game to championship caliber should they choose us? We've become the wall flower at the party that's pleasant to look at but that nobody can see what they have she truely has to offer (too cheesy an analogy?). 2 factors I see as possible advantages we may have is DM managing to suave his way with an organization's departing big name player or hit big with our next coach hiring. Without either those 2, we're seriously going the draft route in the foreseeable future.
     
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Sure, but even these teams can't just rely on brand/location.

    The Celtics didn't attract too many elite players between the Bird Years and the recent Garnett/Pierce/Allen years. The Bulls failed miserably in the Grant Hill/Duncan/McGrady free agent sweeps and ended up overpaying scrubs like Ron Mercer and Eddie Robinson. Hell, they didn't even land any real "big fish" this offseason and had to settle for Boozer a ton of money. The Knicks, too, had a decade-long playoff drought after Van Gundy left. All they managed to do was overpay expensive headcases who underperformed.

    Houston is not a bad location: Many players choose to live in Houston. Good players were happy to join the team when the team was competitive. So unlike some locations, it's worth betting on making the team attractive.
     
  6. pmac

    pmac Member

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    That's not what I said or agreed with. The nba scouts haven't gotten smarter, they just have more information. The Kobe's of the draft are playing an extra year against the rest of the draft field, so GM's know how great they can be (at least with respect to other draftees). This is why a talent that great won't go that far in the draft again.

    I wish I was wrong but I don't think there is some new route to a championship that we have not seen. It's either we acquire a very high draft pick or pull off a trade for a superstar (assuming we have pieces the apposing team wants).

    Players will not choose to play in Houston over a team with a star, even if we are better. The Rockets are just not one of those teams players grow up dreaming to play for.
     

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