Well we all know that there is no difference between a player that hits 38% of his shots vs. a player that his 50% of his shots right?
Miss one shot of three makes 66%. Maybe that is part of your problem comprehending—It is field goal MADE, not field goal missed. And it does not matter what FG% looks like for ONE game, it is averaged as total over all the games. The reality is that K-Mart has 15.8 FGA per game with 44% shooting. But in clutch time his percentage goes down to 38%. Many of K-Mart’s clutch points DO come from FT’s made in close game being extended. It is true that those automatic free throws are big help in icing the game. But if you’re not looking for free throws, but clutch basket to put you ahead in close game, stats show Martin does not rise to the occasion. Again, this is with Martin as first option. I actually think Martin could do much better with defensive pressure not on him so much. That is why I do not find the Rudy Gay comparison completely fair.
DG, if you ask Grizzlies fans, I think they would tell you that Gay assumed the first option role for them. I think you're characterizing Gay as the second option when I don't believe that was truly the case. It is kind of funny how roslolian was trying to give us a "layman's explanation" to us, then told us Martin made 2/3 FGs to shoot 33%. Oops!
I can't answer that because as I already stated, FG% is a garbage stat for simpletons. There may or may not be a difference between the players, we'd have to look at actual stats like TS% to know the difference in efficiency between the players.
Any simpleton (now theres a big word ) would know that I did not ask you a question, I made a sarcastic statement. I wouldn't expect anyone that does not know the difference between 38% and 50% to get that.
This was a typo, I meant to say he made 1 fg out of 3. We're all capable of basic arithmetic here, I hope you'll take it at my word when I say I know 2 out of 3 is 66% not 33%. I made it one game to simply it as it seems more complicated theories go over LTF's head. The problem here is you're falling into the same hole he was: using FG% as the basis for KM's effectives. I already said all I needed to, that 44% is understated-KM's "real" FG% is near 60%. The "clutch" metric you use (wherein his FG% goes down to 38%) falls into the same problem, how many of those clutch fg's were not counted because KM got fouled on his way to the hoop? How many of those were 3 pointers instead of long 2's? Etc...
Oh I see, the Grizz' first option was Rudy Gay? No wonder they only 1 had more won game over us despite having a 20-10 low post beast and one of the best C's in the league. Touche! Honestly that matrix bit was well done, I got a few chuckles out of that. :grin: Moving on, one other issue I have with the clutch metric is the low number of attempts used to determine it. I'm not a stat hound so I forgot the exact number, but IIRC one of the cardinal rules of statistics is you should have more than 30 samples before you can glean meaningful information from them. According to these same stats Lebron, Wade and Kobe are among the worst clutch guys in the L. I'd give any of them the ball 100x before I entrust it to Rudy Gay.
I guess as my final word on this, didn't it even strike you as odd Rudy Gay has the same stats when its crunch time and when its not? Isn't it common knowledge crunch time is when the defense is supposed to focus on you and lock you up? There are several things may explain this: 1. Gay is a slacker and only gets interested in the final possession of the game. 2. The defense doesn't focus on Gay on the final moment so he doesn't get attention more than what he usually gets. THis means he really is a bit player rather than the main man you are saying he is. 3. Whatever metric is being used to determine here is skewed by noise due to the low number of attempts. It could be that chance or luck had a stronger impact than Gay's actual skill.
There's really no other 2 guard that has Martin's scoring capability and efficiency that complements a post game right now or in the foreseeable unless you talk about Dwayne Wade which we will never get. Heck at this point Martin is probably > Kobe.
because of kevin martin's size and lack of strength, it is hard for him to score on a good defender with the game on the line and the defense locked on him. he will probably not get the foul call either. for that reason we need a better closer, obviously, however kevin martin can still be used in crunch times and can be a BIG difference maker...he can spot up hit the shot, cut to the basket, etc. but we do need someone who can create off the dribble and who has the size to pull up for a decent shot even with the defense all over him, for that reason lowry won't work either man tmac, yao, martin, scola, lowry......championship right there
Hey, I'm not saying Kobe's during the course of his 17 seasons is less of a player than Martin is as of now but I'm saying that Kevin's efficiency scoring and price tag compared to what Kobe has to offer as of this moment.
What is the point of giving example of unusual kind of game like this? Your example was to show why Martin’s FG% is skewed because he does not get enough FGA’s. This is obviously not the case when Martin’s average for FGA’s per game comes out to 15.8 and nowhere near 3. Your theory about shot attempts becoming so miniscule for player who gets fouled a lot just does not hold water. And I understand that Martin’s overall impact on the game is much more than the 44% FG%, because he gets to the line a lot and takes many 3’s as well. But I think what is being discussed is that not all points are created equal and you need players who can close the game in order to win. Martin’s clutch time FG% show he is not a great closer. Your explanations for this number going down just do not make any sense to me. Martin getting fouled for easy transition baskets does not help pad his FG% like the others? Every player gets fouled for easy baskets, not just Martin. Really the simple answer is Martin shrinks in late fourth quarter situations when the defense tightens up and whistles are swallowed. We need a first option much better than him if we want to be a really good team. The problem is there is just not a realistic way to bring in that option via trade. That is why I am personally in favor of trading Martin for a rebuild. But it looks like the pressure to make playoffs is making this unlikely, so I guess I will hope for Lowry to become a true star next season. Or better for me, Dragić.
What does their record have to do with anything? We're talking about whose better in the clutch -- who you would give the ball to. Honestly, clutch to me is being able to take and make the last second shot. There's a difference between being able to hit a shot with 3 minutes left and taking a shot when you know if you miss, you lose the game. It's similar to the closer debate in baseball -- is the 9th innng really more important than the 7th or 8th? Why do some guys excel in the 7th/8th but fold in the 9th? Some guys just can't handle the pressure of knowing the game is on the line. But for arguments sake, I used ya'lls "last 5 minutes" stat, which still proved my point. And you should absolutely give the ball to Rudy over Kobe in the final seconds; Kobe is now widely known as not that clutch of a player. Kobe's had this stereotype of being clutch that is slowly being debunked by all your stat heads -- I figured you would know that. I think the stat I read about the other day showed Kobe being below the league average for FG% of last-second shots. He's been taking a lot of heat for this, this past season. Exactly! Your FG% is supposed to go down in crunch time, and yet Rudy manages to keep his relatively the same (his 3PT% goes down) -- why are you trying to find an anomaly in that instead of just being impressed? I mean, I used YOUR numbers that you would prefer to look at (instead of truly last-second shots), and when they don't show you the conclusion you're looking for, you look for excuses for the disparity. You guys just can't admit you were wrong! That's the worst part of it this -- you and ash are both condescending to other posters when it comes to "advance stats knowledge," yet instead of arguing what the numbers show you, you come in with a pre-determined position and try to skew the numbers to fit your argument. Ashishduh was so desperate he tried to argue FGA (LOL). You were trying to argue that Martin's FTA actually hurt his FG% -- that's ridiculous! Have you watched Martin? He doesn't get fouled on layups that often, he likes to fly into defenders on the perimeter once he gets them off-balanced. If he hears the whistle, he jacks it up -- if not, he tries to pass it out at the last second. As I've said all along -- I don't believe you guys have watched Rudy Gay this season. That isn't a negative.. you're Rockets fans, why would you watch the Grizzlies? But I have watched Gay (league pass + fantasy basketball) and I can absolutely tell you he is 100% more clutch than Martin is. Adelman didn't even want Martin handling the ball when the game was on the line or at the end of the quarter -- Lowry ran the show. When the Grizzlies game was in the balance, the ball was in Rudy's hands and he delivered. The problem with this is you guys are focusing too much on Martin's ability at one end of the floor. Yes, he's a great scorer (except in the clutch ) -- but how many points does he give up? How many rebounds does he grab? How many plays does he make for his team? You need to be looking at the overall impact of the game, not how many PPG the guy scores and what his TS% is. You could have a player that scores 10 less points than Martin, but makes a much bigger impact in other areas of the game, and thus would have the same overall impact on a game than Martin does -- despite the PPG disparity.
I really see no other obtainable replacement that we could get that is better. Remember without a 2/3 of Martin's capability or better, acquiring a 4/5 presence is all in vain. I propose using Scola as the trading centerpiece and am willing to part with Budinger, Hill, Miller but that's about it, I consider the other's key guys we could use going forward.
Not very interested in this topic because I think the Rockets value Martin more than other teams. However, every time I see the thread title I get the mental image of Morey trading Martin for some munchies.
