Now is the time to sell high on Kevin Martin. I've touched on this on various threads, but I thought it would make for a good discussion. We wished we would've traded McGrady or Yao when they were still at peak value. We wish we could've traded Brooks last year to maximize his value. Now is the time to trade Kevin Martin. Morey's plan for a superstar involved collecting a bunch of assets in hopes of overwhelming a team with an offer for their star. The reason we failed is simple: all of our cheap assets are role players. Lee, Budinger, Patterson, Hill, etc. Here's the catch-22 on trading for a superstar: you need a young, star-potential talent to trade for him. Derrick Favors isn't a better player than Patrick Patterson is right now, but teams would take Favors over Patterson everyday because of his "potential." The potential that comes with being a high draft pick. I just don't see any way we can trade for a superstar while keeping intact a core that could still compete for championships. Dwight is available this summer -- who are we going to trade for him? Patrick Patterson, Courtney Lee and a bunch of mid to late 1st rounders? Our 30 year old PF that has a big contract and rumors of microfracture surgery in his near future? We simply can't compete with what other teams can offer. Fans always want to take the lazy way out -- rebuild without suffering through a bad year. It's just not possible.. you have to take your lumps and rebuild with the young talent in the draft. Kevin Martin is a 28 year old SG that just played in more games this season than he has in the prior three years. The 2010-2011 season was also the least MPG he's averaged (coincidence he didn't get hurt? maybe) over the last four years. He had a terrific year, ranking in the NBA's top 10 in PPG. In other words, he is an absolute perfect fit for Adelman's offense -- a coach we no longer employ. I don't think his value could really get higher.. we're talking about the guy who was traded for a backup PF just last year. Kevin Martin would be a great third or fourth option on a championship contender. But for a team that desperately needs to find its first option, the only thing he's doing is keeping us afloat on Lake Mediocrity. Dragon Girl had a great example in how the Sonics traded Ray Allen for Jeff Green -- of course Green would probably never amount to the career that Allen had, but it was a great move for the Sonics in moving forward with their commitment to rebuilding. By replacing Ray Allen with Jeff Green, the Sonics allowed themselves to commit to developing Kevin Durant as the #1 option instead of fighting for the last seed in the playoffs. This in turn allowed them to get another valuable high draft pick the following year, which turned into Russell Westbrook. Sometimes, you have to take a step back in order to move two steps forward. IMO, trading Kevin Martin in THIS year's draft is the smart thing to do. While we may not necessarily get equal value (a one-way 20+ PPG scorer), we would be finally committing to rebuilding. The 2012 NBA draft will be one of the stronger drafts in recent memory -- but if Kevin Martin leads us to an 8th seed, we lose our 1st round pick and possibly set us back even further in our rebuilding plans. The smart thing to do is to trade Kevin Martin in this year's draft, while his value is at his highest.
somewhat agree...But its not urgent that we rebuild...I would give it another 2 years to see if we can possibly add the piece to get us over the hump....Then I would blow it up if neessary...Dynamite doesnt expire!!
We need a franchise center. How do you propose we turn Kevin Martin into a franchise center? Right now your proposal is: 1. Trade Martin for ??? 2. Trade ??? for superstar. 3. Win championship. I'm not opposed to trading Martin, but to who for what?
Would not have a problem trading Kmart off. But what/who is there to trade for? Picks on a weak draft? Cap space for the season after CBA? Any trade for young/potential players will have to include some bad contract or at least 2-1 or even 3-1 trades. Selling is one thing, market is a different thing.
I wanted this to be about selling high on a player whose value I believe will only digress in the following years. If I offered up a trade, you could stick that post into the random trades thread. The one thing we need more than a shotblocking center is a franchise player. A number one option. That's our biggest need. A center was our biggest need when we were still trying to compete with our Martin/Scola core. It's time we scrap that plan, as Martin is a third option on a good team and Scola is a super role player whose taken advantage of Yao's absence. So while a franchise center would be nice, I'd settle for a franchise ANYTHING. I would deal Martin for a high draft choice in the 2011 draft and look at one of the international big men.
Sure. But the whole point of selling high is getting a higher value than you would under normal circumstances. You've identified that this could be the optimum time to seek a trade for Martin. But to sell high, you actually have to get back more than you are giving, and that requires identifying the market for Kevin Martin.
I like the idea of selling high, precisely because the probabilities are very high that this team will never be a deep playoff team with Martin as one of the key cogs - we're likely years away from that, absent luck. Taht said, even understanding your reluctance to make it a random trade post, who is out there where it would make sense? Sure, he'd be great on a contending team, but then what could they offer us in return? And while he'd be a nice add on a lotto team, but by the same logic, would they want that? Maybe, who knows. I'm pretty sure (as in positive), we would not have gotten Favors out of NJ for a package involving Kevin Martin. So, he won't bring THAT much back in return. It's just a tough spot, all around. As quickly as the Utah team disintegrated, for example, they did get Favors back, plus other assets. Albeit a "weak" draft, they have 2 lotto picks this year. If they choose wisely, and Favors develops, in another 3 years they'll be solid again. The Rockets seem to be in this middle ground, which might just be the worst place to be. I'm all in favor of moving Martin and Scola, predominantly, when possible... but realize that just may not be possible for the time being.
1. Keeping Martin and getting a 13-14th pick in 2012, or worse case no pick at all 2. Trading Martin for a prospect that has a chance to be just as good as Martin down the line(best case) or 75 cents on the dollar down the line(more realistic), meanwhile giving us the 6-7th pick in 2012 Which one of those gives you higher value? Also 2. is only one part in an entire chance in direction. If we also give Twill and Thabeet a lot more minutes, the pick will have a great chance to be even higher. Meanwhile also increasing the value of those two prospects, which currently is close to 0.
The Sonics were not close to makin the playoffs, they were one of the worst teams in the league when they traded Allen. Anyway...yawn at yet another thinly veiled tanking thread lol. The Cavs acquired a top 2011 pick in exchange for taking on a huge contract. If you think Martin is worth a top 2011 pick then you obviously don't think this is really "selling high".
Bejezuz, I disagree with your point about having to actually get back more than you're giving. Selling high, IMO, is trading Kevin Martin when his value is at his highest. You could probably trade Kevin Martin for a high draft pick in this year's class -- more than likely you could not trade him for a high draft pick in NEXT year's class. That's due to next year's class perceived to be stronger and my belief that Martin's value will diminish from this point forward. Would it have been better to trade McGrady for 80% of his value when he was healthy or keep him another two years and trade him for 20% of his former value? Hindsight would tell you the former. As I said, I don't think the player we'll get back (high pick) will necessarily be a better player than Martin -- but the trade would be necessary to push the Rockets 100% into rebuilding (Jeff Green example). JayZ, I would target teams with the top seven picks -- not necessarily a contender. Minnesota is the most obvious, as they have a hole at SG + a GM/fan base who are tired of being in the lottery (and Kahn said they were no longer rebuilding). I'm of the belief that we need to shop Martin and Scola hard now -- their value will only go down from here on out. It may already be too late with regards to Scola -- he's an expensive role player who just had knee surgery at age 31. What if Martin suffers another big injury next year and misses 20-30 games (not that uncommon for him)? His trade value would again plummet. I'm not sure we'll get another chance to pitch Kevin Martin to teams with as high of value as he has now -- we should be looking to take advantage of it, not suffer through another mediocre year of a Martin/Scola core.
As discussed in other threads, Minnesota is the ideal target this year. They have an established franchise player who they would want to keep happy, before he bails. Their biggest hole is SG. And most importantly, they do not own their 2012 1st round pick, which means sucking next year will bring nothing in return. All this adds up to them trying to "win now" as much as possible in the upcoming season, as stated by their GM. Another green prospect from this weak 2011 draft is not going to help them as much as a sure thing like Kevin Martin. That is why they would want him, and why our needs fit each other perfectly.
I agree completely. Martin will never play better than he did this past year and might never even be as good as this past year. Plus, Courtney Lee is capable of holding a starting job. If we were able to trade Martin for a future pick and/or a center with great upside, I would do it.
^^ if yall are advocating trading Martin somehow for Kevin Love, then I think even the most ardent of Kevin Martin supporters would agree with you there. but I think what you are saying is trade Martin for Minnesota's draft pick. Which, I'm not necessarily opposed to doing... and honestly, typically would be in favor of doing, BUT all the prognasticators discussing how weak of a draft it is do have me a little scared. I mean if you look at some of the past's weak drafts, check out the 2000-2002 drafts. The only players you have out of there that are truly worthy are Pau Gasol (Yao, but his health discounts him). I mean look at 2000 as an example: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, Mike Miller Hindsight is 20/20 and there were some great players from those drafts, but they were had later in the draft. But again, I'm not opposed. Cause that may be the top pick, and certainly a top 4, and Morey seems to draft well, and, well, you're probably there again in 2012 with a lotto pick. So I'd be on board... but even with what you've noted about Minnesota's need to win now, do they trade a top 4 selection for Kevin Martin? I could see them doing it to also get rid of a bad contract, but they really don't have any of those. Maybe Martin + Bud (or Lee) for #1 pick and Martell Webster. Good thought, though.
All of this requires the Rockets to agree with your assessment that Martin will decline, which is contrary to their prior stance that Martin's injuries were coincidental and not chronic. It would also be a reversal on Morey's recently announced position of rebuilding on the fly. If Martin is not traded, it means one of three things: 1) the team disagrees with your assessment on the merits (Morey thinks Martin has not peaked); 2) there's no market for Martin (Morey can't get appropriate value for his prized "asset" and would prefer to wait for the right offer); or 3) the team won't trade Martin for internal reasons (institutional blindness, fear of reprisal for reversing on previous assessments, internal disagreements on strategy, competing interests, etc.) I wouldn't be surprised if this didn't happen, because it just isn't the way general managers operate if they want to survive in this league. If I was Morey, and my job was on the line, I'd much rather keep the team afloat as long as I could. This is much safer for him, hoping that the right mix of players came along, than driving the team into lotto-land without a clear plan for getting out. You don't take short-term losses with other people's money without KNOWING that they will stick with you until you have a chance to recover from the initial loss and get credit for the big win. Otherwise, Morey is better off making incremental improvements until he gets an offer from a team in a better position to win now and benefit from his skills.
I would not trade Martin for anything less than two first round picks in next years draft. Or if a team like the Bulls doesn't win it all (and I know they feel they need a SG) then Osik and a 2012 first for Martin. I would not mind creating a ton of cap space this summer and building through the draft (around Lowry, Patterson and Lee) like Sam Presti has done in OKC (they have there entire rotation under contract for the next 3-5 years and their payroll will stay in the low 30's). Morey has the capability of doing it.
Two final points: 1) It doesn't take an evaluation of Martin's past injuries to expect a decline. Martin was brought in to play second fiddle to Yao -- who is no longer in our long term plans. He was brought in because he fit in perfectly with the offensive system of a coach who is no longer in our long term plans. I don't think Kevin Martin should be in our long term plans either -- we didn't trade for him to rebuild AROUND him, we traded for him as one last ditch effort to win with Yao. Now that, that hope is gone, Martin should follow. 2) Our long term future would be hurt by Morey making incremental improvements. That's just a bad strategy to employ on a team that has no legitimate #1 or #2 option. You would actually be hurting the franchise by delaying the necessarily rebuilding. Some people think we've been "rebuilding for the last few years," but that's just not true. We've been trading for incremental improvements hoping to continue fighting for the playoffs -- that's just grasping for straws hoping to squeeze out one last playoff run. The Yao era is over -- the players we brought in to surround Yao with are still here. It's time we make a committed effort to rebuilding, which involves trading some of our biggest money makers for young talent/draft picks. While the obvious choice would be to move Scola due to age/health/contract, he also has the least trade value of our top guys. Martin should be the one we use to parlay into draft picks. In the end, I'm not looking at how good we are next year or the following year. I care about making us a consistent contenders in three to four years. Trading Martin for a high draft pick is the first step to becoming that -- keeping Martin and making small upgrades around him will push back that four year plan another two-three years.
It practically feels like you're contradicting yourself, worrying a top pick isn't good enough for us, but maybe too good for Minn to give up. It's a weak draft, so if Minn drafts someone who ends up as good as Kevin Martin, they should consider it a draft success. Now, if that player is a veteran who can help them to a significantly better season right off the bat -- indeed the real Kevin Martin -- so much the better. Losing won't help them any since they traded their pick with no protection remaining. I think if I was Minn, this would be a very tempting offer. For Houston, even the #1 pick might not be equal value, given the draft's weakness. If we get the 2011 equivalent of Kenyon Martin, we didn't get equal value. But, it would be a very big step toward dismantling and rebuilding. Couple it with trading other vets, like Scola, for younger assets, we'd have a high 2012 pick (because we'd suck), and can take a rebuild-through-the-draft strategy. I think it means, though, that we've just been putzing around the last 2 seasons as pretenders. And, we're giving up on the serendipity-trade for a franchise player strategy. No Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. But, it's a new era for the Rockets anyway, so maybe it makes sense.
I think that's exactly what we've done -- putzing around the last two seasons as pretenders. The last two years were centered around the hope that Yao would return to (almost) full strength and we'd have the perfect supporting cast to surround him with. It should be apparent now that will never happen -- it's time to start from scratch. On the giving up for trading for a franchise player strategy -- I disagree. I think pursuing dealing Martin for draft choices would make us an even more attractive trading partner. Often when teams trade their franchise player, they commit to rebuilding -- they prefer high draft picks (Favors) over expensive semi all-stars (Martin). For example, I think we would have gotten a lot further in trade discussions with the Utah/Denver trades of 2010 if we had Derrick Favors to offer as opposed to Kevin Martin. Landing a top draft pick, whether that be from a Kevin Martin trade or the team's performance without Martin, will go a lot further in helping us trade for a star than keeping Martin would.
