since well before you even joined this bbs, i had been suggesting to people in this forum to start accumulating gold with their monopoly money dollars. and now right before halftime u show up cryin that it's already gone up too high in terms of your sacred dollars -- how can SHinEy slap?? but don't worry, if you had read the thread before posting (specifically post #38) then you'd already be ass-ured there might still be a chance at the start of the 3rd to get in cheaper with less sacred dollars per ounce
Pip...you can't take gold to a grocery store and buy food with it right now. Correct? Again, I didn't say it isn't viewed as currency. I said the dollar is still king as things stand right now. To the 2nd and 3rd paragraph....show me something that illustrates how gold has consistently maintained it's value over the past 1000 years. I'm not against seeing this info. We aren't fighting. Educate me cause I would like to see how gold has been a wealth creator, outside of picking it up when it is "undervalued" and selling it when it is "overvalued". And how much wealth would have been preserved if you had been buying gold the last time the prices were at these levels?
Wasn't sure where to put this but... Silver up 3 dollars overnight.... <object width="480" height="390"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/NP6DXoNKITc?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/NP6DXoNKITc?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="390"></embed></object>
I have USD/CHF dilemma and hope someone can help as I'm no finance guy. My savings are in USD and I'm currently living off some of that in Switzerland so I change my USD to CHF as I need it. The problem is the USD/CHF has gone down to sheet and I'm losing out bigtime. What would you do in my shoes? Is there anything else to do but to wait it out? Thanks in advance!
Based on what I am seeing (I use FXStreet for my research), the trend lines for USDCHF would lead me to divest my USD holdings if I lived in Switzerland. Personally, I would consider diversifying into another currency (split between CHF and something else), but CHF and the Euro move very close to each other (at least in comparison to the dollar), so you won't get much protection unless the Franc tanks and the Euro doesn't, but I see the opposite as more likely. The Australian dollar has been pretty strong lately and you will bring your Beta closer to zero if you split your holdings between CHF and AUD.
So says the person that didn't even know that American manufacturing was at it's highest levels ever. I may have missed it, but I don't think you've even attempted to make a single argument based on anything but hysteria and hyperbole in this thread.
You never answered my question about that data. Is it including US based MNC's that manufacture in other countries? You never answered. Also, because we sell more airplanes and defense equipment, thus upping our overall manufacturing revenue due to the size of what we are selling, doesn't equate to more manufacturing capacity or factories. Tell me this...when was the last time something you used on a regular basis, IE clothing, toys, household items, etc... actually said "Made in America". Oh yeah, it's automation My statement was regarding manufacturing jobs and the fact that we IMPORT much more than we export in almost every sector Hysteria and hyperbole? This coming from someone who denies inflation exists and claims that food and oil prices rise due to demand, not other factors. You are a respected member of this forum and MB, but you really don't know what you are talking about in this particular thread. I stand by what I said. If you need me to PM you a ton of actual links supporting my statement, I would be happy to do it when I have the proper time to get it done
I would be happy to do so when I have more time (like after work). Google is your friend as well but I would be happy to provide multiple supporting links when I have the time to get to them and paste them.
My understanding is that it's domestic manufacturing. That does not include stuff made abroad, but would include stuff made here by Toyota, for example. If we are making more airplanes than we were, then yes, it does equate to more manufacturing. I have no idea - I don't pay attention to where stuff I use is made. But it's sort of irrelevant when we have the overall number. No it wasn't. You replied to a statement that said "Good. This will help exports." with "Yeah, if we only made anything anymore". That specifically and only had to do with the amount of exports; it had nothing to do with jobs. Again, you still have not provided a shred of evidence to the contrary. Let's start with this: please explain why food and oil prices are going up globally, including in countries with extremely strong and strengthening currencies.
No he's not. Inflation is at historically if not dangerously low levels. Inflation is between 1 and 2 percent. In fact in 2009 we were technically in a slight deflationary period with negative inflation rates. Pointing to gas and food is irrelevant. Those prices increased in every single country. That is a supply and demand issue, not an inflation issue. Furthermore a friend pointed out to me that there is good evidence that a slightly higher rate of inflation is much better for the economy (think between 3 and 4 percent) With little to no inflation, a company that is struggling is faced with two choices. Since the real value of wages is unchanged, in order to cut costs you either cut nominal wages or lay off workers. Now in the US people flat out dont accept pay cuts so the alternative becomes your only option. In a world with actual inflation, the inflation actually serves to cut costs for you by slightly decreasing the real value of your wages (and you can just hold off on raises which is an acceptable business practice) and allows for more full employment. No sane economist thinks inflation is a problem now and most think deflation is a far bigger thing to worry about.
doesnt matter if it collapses. We could be in a 1930s recession and Obama will get reelected because if you dont vote for him then you will be called a carnival barker.
We cause initial inflation with our zero-rate policies, other countries defensively raise rates, the Dollar drops further against those currencies, once again pushing inflation along as most commodities trade in Dollars and that forces governments to buy Dollars (our debt) and keeps our rates low while they have to tighten further and end up dropping the value of our Dollar (and the notes they are forced to keep buying) ever downward. here's an example with india: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...e-week-high-increasing-pressure-on-rates.html To plagarize: the Dollar is down 20% in 12 months with half of that decline coming in the first 4 months of 2011 as the Fed's policies continue to kick our currency while it's down. So what then, does that say about both corporate earnings - which are barely improved from last year or our National GDP, which was $14,446.4Bn in Q1 of last year. In order for GDP to keep up with the decline in the dollar - we will need to see at least $17.335Tn for Q1 2011 and I'm kind of doubting we are even up to $15Tn actually. Do you want to measure GDP in real stuff? No you do not because it's ridiculously depressing but I'll do it because it's my job so, like a doctor who has to rip off a band-aid, I will now painfully point out the reality of our situation. Last April, $14.5Tn bought us 181.25Bn barrels of oil at $80 a barrel, this year, it buys us 128.88Bn (down 28.9%). Wholesale gasoline was $2.40 last April so our GDP was good for 6.041Tn gallons. At $3.37 yesterday, we're down to just 4.302Tn gallons - 28.7% less. Gold was $1,150 and our GDP bought us 12.6Bn ounces but this year we will disappoint a lot of rappers with just 9.5Bn onces at $1,526, 24.6% less teeth to cap. Are we starting to see a trend here? -Copper was $3.25 a pound and we had 4.46Tn of them last year, now it's 3.41Tn pounds at $4.25 a pound (down 23.5%) -Silver was $18 an ounce last April and our GDP was good for 805.5Bn ounces. At $47.80, that's dropped to 303.3Bn ounces (down 62% - ouch!) - I guess we'd better ignore that one, right? -Corn was $3.60 a bushel and that gave us 4.027Tn of them last year. This year, many will go hungry as our GDP now buys just 2.636Tn bushels at $5.50 (down 34.5%) -Wheat came in at $500 a ton last year for 29Bn tons worth in our GDP but this year, not so much at $750 and just 19.3 tons (down 33%) -Rice has held steady at $12 and that's pretty much the only thing staving off global starvation at the moment so, yay, I guess. Regarding energy, are you aware that oil is bought in dollars? What happens to the dollar or any other currency when you just go out and decide to print trillions more in a short time period (IE QE 1 and 2?) Gotta run, my 17 month old is sick and I need to help my wife out. Will be happy to continue this discussion in the near future.
What the **** are you talking about? And why are you "plagiarizing" from an article on the Indian Rupee? At a minimum, your statement is not even remotely true. The CPI change for the last year hasn't been 20%, it has been around 2% - incredibly low by historical standards and well below the Fed's target, especially given the fact that the economy has been expanding at the same time. Expansionary economy with no inflation is a rare (and good) thing. You do realize that there's a difference between exchange rates and inflaiton right? Or more accurately - you obviously do not realize this, which is why you just claim the "the dollar is down 20%" without giving us the other variable as to what it's down compared to.
here you go. i don't have time right now to go into a deep debate but am more than happy to. read the article...I don't agree with all of it but there are charts galore for you to read, sam http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reality-check-how-much-priced-euros
I tried to read it ... after I stopped snickering about it being from "Phil from Phil's Stock World"....but i couldn't understand it. I did see a bunch of garbage about death crosses and other technical day trader crap. What in god's name does this have to do with macro? My quesiton is very simple if you don't want to answer the previous questions.Do you have a good reason why I shouldn't trust the CPI/core inflation numbers, which all offficial accounts, are historically low, as reflected by the bond market and low yields?
