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This has been the best offensive team in the last 30+ years of Rockets history?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Mar 24, 2011.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    This year's Rockets team averages 111.4 points per 100 possessions. Ranking them 4th among 30 teams.

    I took a look at historical data to see what that means compared to past Rockets teams:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/


    Preliminarily, the raw number, 111.4 points per 100 possessions, is the best the Rockets averaged in recorded franchise history (they don't have possession numbers until 73/74 due to the fact that team turnovers were not recorded until then).

    Of course, given all the rule changes (3 pters, how fouls are called) and play style changes (pace of game, frequency of 3 pters being shot) made during these decades, it's unfair to compare just the raw numbers since it is much eaiser to score points now than it was during, for example, the late 1990s. So, a better way to do it would be to compare the offensive rankings of each Rockets team (alternatively we can to the number of standard deviations above the mean, but that takes a lot more work).

    In any case, the 78/79 Rockets ranked 1st overall in the league offensively. Since then, no other Rockets team ranked higher than 5th overall, and this is with the league having less than 30 teams during most of these years.

    I think it's quite remarkable:

    It's more than 3 decades worth of Rockets teams. These teams have had Moses, Hakeem, Elvin, Calvin, Drelxer, Barkley, Pippen, "Franchise," McGrady, Yao. Some had the Twin Towers, some had 2 or 3 Hall of Famers. We are talking about people who show up on the "All Decade" teams in basketball video games. The period started when Del ("Of the") Harris was coaching and Rudy T was a player.

    None of these teams managed to rank higher than 5th overall in offensive efficiency and here we have a team whose best offensive player is probably Kyle Lowry, Louis Scola or Kevin "Fools Gold" Martin and ranked 4th overall. This with a starting lineup that some argued were playing "3 on 5 on offense" due to the presence of Chuck Hayes and Shane Battier (and that "3 on 5" starting lineup actually had an offensive efficiency even higher than the 111.4 that the team averaged overall)?

    So, what do you think, is this team really more talented offensively than people give it credit for? Is it a testament to what can happen when palyers intelligently execute an well-designed offensive system?
     
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  2. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    Dawg, screw data. This is a high possession team without much to lose on the defensive end so they put up a lot of carefree points without being a real threat. I'll take 04-07 TMac Yao, 80s-90s Rockets w/ Hakeem, Moses and Clyde over this fool's gold anyday.
     
  3. marky :)

    marky :) Member

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    Looks like we know who's getting the next triple double :grin:
     
  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Overall, these are better teams. But this team's offensive efficiency is still significant and remarkable.

    I disagree with your hypothesis that it's attributable only (or substantially) to the pace of the game or to the fact that the Rockets aren't good defensively.

    There are high pace but not high efficiency teams out there. Also, lots of bad defensive teams manage to suck on offense since just because you are not playing any D, the opponent is not obligated to stop guarding you. I don't notice the opposing D not trying as hard to stop this Rockets team as they were trying to top, for example, the 08/09 team. Afterall, the team does have a winning record, so we are not talking about a situation where you are so bad the opponent can just allow you to score all you want but still beat you by a ton. These points are scored in competitive situations where the Rockets scoring have generally resulted in wins agaisnt their opponents.
     
  5. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    Damn, couldn't rep you again. But, this is good stuff. It really is pretty incredible. The two things that have really been different about this team from past Rockets teams that probably explain most of this efficiency is that:

    (1) Assists-on-FGM is unusually high. And, while Lowry has decent assist numbers, they aren't at Chris Paul levels or anything. The whole team is passing the ball, which of course is the trademark of the Adelman offense.

    (2) We have very low turnovers. We're 6th in the league on turnovers. Combining the 2 strengths, we're #1 on assist-to-turnover ratio. It's a credit to the players that we can share the ball this much and not turn it over.
     
  6. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    I mean this is a nice, respectful, diplomatic answer but it's basically looking at the silver lining for a team that is an "honorable" 8-10 seed. I don't think this kind of behavior should be encouraged. I think the Rockets should be looking at current trends of what works and be exploding/recalibrating their roster to those specifications, not patting themselves on the back for maybe sneaking in as an 8th seed.

    One dimensional players (Kevin Martin) just don't cut it at the highest level in this league; as Carmelo shows, no matter how good you are on offense, if you don't know how to commit defensively you'll lead your team nowhere. Instead of floating around in mediocrity abyss, the Rockets should look at trading guys like KMart and Scola (due to PPat) - who would be great on actual contenders - and go to the extreme low you have to hit before greatness comes... instead of fearing it and staying on cruise control where they are.
     
  7. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Nobody is saying that the Rockets are great overall or shouldn't make changes. Their D (21st overall) is below par and need to be fixed one way or another.

    Recognzing your team for what it is, both its strength and its weakness, doesn't result in staying with the status quo, but rather gives you better info to assess what needs to be done.

    A team needs to make its decision by looking at the available data objectively rather than simply hit the panic button because someone is "mad as hell and can't take the it anymore" with an not-quite elite team.

    Looking at team history, in the 7 years before the Rockets won their 2 championships, they won 41-46 games for 5 of these years and won 50+ games for only 2 of the 7 years. They were on what some today would call the "mediocrity treadmill" and, acccoring to some people, should be tanking and starting over probably at least 3 or 4 years into that stretch.
     
    #7 Carl Herrera, Mar 24, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2011
  8. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    The thing about tweaking is you can do it when you have Yao and TMac. You can tweak when you have LeBron and Wade. You can tweak when you have a superstar or a core. But you can't tweak mediocrity into greatness. There must be an explosion, rock bottom, and only then will greatness truly come.
     
  9. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    Kind of surprising actually. Outside of Fool's Gold, we don't have any players that are both high scoring AND highly efficient.

    On the other hand, we don't have any players who are inefficient. Lowry, Scola, Hayes, PhatPat, Bud, and Lee all post decent efficieny.

    I think it's a combo of Morey's efficient players and Adelman's motion offense.
     
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    No crap dude. Morey has said no one on this roster is untouchable. Now, back to the thread, which is about offense.
     
  11. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    At some point, the team may well decide to "blow it up." Even if that is to happen and you are trading off players from this team, it doesn't change the fact that it's wise to recognize the team and its players for what they are and what they have achieved if for no reason other than assessing what you should get in return in these trades.

    Again, I wasn't trying to rehash the "tanking" debate here by creating this thread. I am just making the observation that this team has done VERY well on the OFFENSIVE end of the game. That is all. No more and no less. I'm sure there are plenty of "tanking" related threads in which you can debate about the merits of tanking.
     
  12. DieHard Rocket

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    That doesn't necessarily have to happen. It is the most typical way but not the only way.

    The Celtics, though they had a star in Pierce already, didn't blow it up and hit rock bottom. They set themselves up with assets and struck when the irons were hot. And it's not like Pierce was really a top 5 talent and they were already great.

    The Pistons got the most out of Billups, Rip, and Ben Wallace, then added a nice piece in Prince and the final piece in Rasheed Wallace to put them over the top. Our guys aren't elite enough defensively to pull it off like the Pistons did, but if we can find a defensive center and a good young wing that has potential to be a top 10 or top 15 player ... Lowry, Lee or Martin, Hayes, and PP might be enough if we add those two pieces.

    On topic -- yes, this offense is a beauty to watch. I'd be much more excited if I could watch our team be a be a beauty to watch on defense.
     
  13. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Member

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    The Pistons are not a valid comparison because they already had the core pieces in place and a NASTY defense - as you mentioned Rasheed was the piece that put them over the top. The Celtics surrounded an existing superstar (at the time) with assets and high draft picks (due to a whole lot of sucking) and that's the only way they received KG and Ray ray (#5 pick jeff green) via trade. High draft picks are essential.
     
  14. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    Apparently you're wrong, as the Pistons proved not too long ago.

    But anyway, imagine where our offense would be if we didn't have AB, Bud, and Hill playing terribly for most of the season. Or if Adelman had realized sooner that Hayes is crucial to our success.
     
  15. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Good point: I think this speaks to the importance of not having that one really low efficiency guy on the squad.

    During most of McGrady's tenure as a Rocket, his scoring efficiency was below par because he takes "miracle shots" (some by necessity but other by choice). He hits higher % of them than mere mortals would but these still drag down the team's overall efficiency. Rafer Alston was his able assistant in terms of inefficient shooting (but it's mostly a case of lack of skills for Rafer). At the tail end of McGrady's tenure, Ron Artest and then Trevor Ariza became the "successor chuckers."

    We really don't have that guy on this year's team. Everyone on this team takes rational shots and make a decent % of them. If anyone, Kyle Lowry was the guy who takes the ball with shot clock running down and he's made a reasonable % of "buzzer beater" shots and created opportunity for others almost as well as TMac did.
     
  16. DavidRocket

    DavidRocket Member

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    Their defense as of late is miles ahead of what it has been over the course of the season. Defensive rotations are more crisp and, despite missing a true shotblocker, the emergence of Patterson along with the Hayes and Lowry have anchored our defense post All-Star Break. It may not be a "beauty" but certainly a significant improvement and noteworthy.
     
  17. HeyDude

    HeyDude Member

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    And yet RA doesn't have an extension. Quite sad.
     
  18. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Of course you can. Didn't Dallas basically do that with the Dirk and Nash deals? Yes they haven't won a championship (they should have), but they have been one of the best teams in the league for years after they traded for Dirk and Nash. Wasn't Kobe acquired for an old vet?

    You are correct you need luck to be great in this league. San Antonio has been blessed with it by winning the lotto getting Duncan but they also skillfully drafted stars late with Parker and Ginobili. They have also been one of the best in the league at acquiring great role players and working them into their system.

    There is more than one way to acquire a superstar and I am not sure that completely destroying the team is the best and highest percent chance of getting a superstar while keeping a team around him that can possibly win a title.
     
  19. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    If tweaking doesn't work how do you explain in one year going from 17th to 4th in Offense while only going 17th to 21st in Defense. Thats a gigantic step forward offensively and a small step back defensively.

    And once again lets take a look at the other huge factor you conveniently overlooked:

    Year(Games Yao Played)Defensive Efficiency Rank

    03/04(82) - 5th
    04/05(80) - 4th
    05/06(57) - 6th
    06/07(48) - 3rd
    (Adelman arrives)
    07/08(55) - 2nd
    08/09(77) - 4th
    09/10(0) - 17th
    10/11(5) - 20th

    Every single year the 7'6" behemoth sat in the lane our defense was top 6 in efficiency! The roster changed, the coach changed, but the defense remained because of Yao and his ability to change shots in the paint. Two years running we have had to play without him and without an acceptable replacement and you see where that has gotten us. No offense to Chuck, but we know his strengths and we know his limitations, and in the height and shot changing category he lacks severely.

    One big man can make ALL the difference.

    We have assembled an offense that rivals almost anyone in the league and all we need is a big man to play defense and rebound the ball. Watching the games its painfully obvious that this is our biggest area of concern. Teams are getting layups and offensive rebounds too easisly against us, and you don't necessarily need a superstar to help in these areas.

    You may think we are far off and are in need of complete destruction, but I and some others see what we have had to work with and are more than impressed with what we have been able to produce without a big man and can see how good we really could be if we got one.
     
  20. Nero

    Nero Member

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    I think this really speaks to peoples' expectations as much as anything else.

    And their bad memories.

    We were a couple of buckets shy of 70 points AT THE HALF last night, and people complain. They don't remember the 'good old days' apparently, when we would be playing games in the 80's on most nights. It was excruciating. And not just because it was slower, and defensive-minded. It was a trial just getting the ball in the hole.

    Now you are right, there are a lot of things combining to make this current team what it is offensively - more running, better flow, faster pace, yes all of that is true.

    But the one thing that stands out is THESE GUYS CAN SHOOT.

    KM can shoot. Lowry can shoot. Lee can shoot, Bud can shoot, Scola is nails, PPat can shoot, Hayes can even score when he is not having a nervous spaz attack, Dragic can score, heck BMiller can score when he has a little juice in his legs. The only guys on the roster I am not sold on as shooters areHill, Carroll, Williams and Thabeet. And even those guys, well it's just because we haven't really seen whether or not they can do the job.

    Seriously, as a fan, I like this style of play more.

    Yes, it means we rank lower defensively because of giving up more shots too, that's what happens at a faster pace. JVG-ball is not JUST about better defense, but less possessions as well.

    So really, it's all about point deferential. We could score 120 per game, and still be mediocre if we give up that much too.

    This team does not necessarily need a 'superstar' as much as it needs a shot-blocker who can play a lot of minutes and not be an embarrassment on the offensive end. Now, whether or not we can actually dig one of those up, and whether one of those would necessarily be considered a 'superstar' or not, who knows.

    Maybe we have the guy in 7'3" Thabeet, but if so, it ain't going to be real soon. Find a guy like that in the draft, trade for a guy, whatever, that is DM's #1 priority right now.

    People want to talk about 'fools gold', the real fools gold is the mindless pursuit of 'a superstar', no matter who he is.

    Does anyone really think that DWilliams makes this team significantly better right now instead of Lowry? I don't, and think of the assets we would be missing also.

    No, just widen the point-deferential a little bit with a shot blocker who won't lower our own average just by his mere presence, and that will be good for probably 8-10 more wins, everything else staying the same.

    I would take my chances with that.
     
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