I san this at Astros County ... The Astros have made their first round of cuts this morning. Those who will head on over the minor-league side of the field: Doug Arguello David Carpenter Cesar Carrillo Koby Clemens Jorge De Leon Brian Dopirak Rene Garcia Jon Gaston Arcenio Leon J.D. Martinez Jiovanni Mier Jimmy Paredes Jose Carlos Thompson http://twitter.com/zacharylevine/statuses/47280334701723648
It's sad but predictable what the astros have become. Got the new BA minor league almanac. The astros moved up from 30 the last two years(absolutely last place) to number 22 in minor league talent. Heck has had 6 #1 picks in 3 years including 2 top ten picks. What's going on with him?
Moving up 8 spots is pretty good, teams like the Rays and Royals took YEARS to become what they are. Braves have had awesome scouting department so they always seem to have great young talent. Heck has done a fine job getting depth in the organization and now has a foundation to work with. If I had one complaint it's that he hasn't found a SUPERSTAR player in these drafts, yet. Well, he may have but we just don't know it but we lack that can't miss guy. I think the system was so bare that he had to try and replenish first and now might go after those types of players, possibly break the bank a bit.
Ariel Ovando (17) might be The One. Plus power. Plus arm. Very raw. Ovando plays his first season of low A, short season ball this year. We will see. Methinks that once the recently drafted talent gets up to AA/AAA the Astros will get a higher ranking. As expected, minor league rankings are quite subjective. Someone line J.D. Martinez (20th-round pick from the 2009 Draft) was not highly rated by scouts before the draft. Martinez can flat out rake and has been burning through the minors. But Martinez still is not that highly rated a prospect. If Martinez continues to hit in AAA this year, this year will be his last in the minors. Next year if all goes well Martinez will be a MLB rookie and the Astros highest rated prospect, almost after the fact.
Yea, big JD Martinez fan. The guy can hit, he needs to improve his defense but he should be Lee's replacement once the contract from hell runs out. Ovando is the hope for a star in the organzation, right now. Guy looks the part but is so young. This upcoming draft appears to be loaded, I think one more good draft may gets us in the teens as far as farm systems.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/toda...ganization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611119.html What exactly is your complaint? Of those 6 #1's, 1 is already in the majors (Castro) and 4 are Baseball America's top 5 Astros prospects. Castro doesn't even factor into prospect rankings anymore. That's pretty darn good for 1st round picks. Building up a great farm system takes time. Great systems have depth at all levels, which requires success with low round picks (eg. rounds 6-50). That in turn requires a dedicated scouting department, great minds running it and the money to go after some over-slot kids. That doesn't all come together in a short time. We need more JD Martinez's (36th round) succeeding than we currently have. The divisional championship Astros had lots of low picks that were successful. Roy Oswalt (23rd round), Wade Miller (20th round), etc...
I think a lot of people have the misconception that baseball draft picks are similar to the NBA or NFL, where #1 pick can have an immediate impact. So many variables complicate how well a high pick can pan out in baseball. It literally is a 4 or 5 year cycle in baseball. "Top Prospect" status isn't really given out until they get to AA or AAA, which can take 2 to 3 years alone. To move up 8 spots in just over 2 years is outstanding, IMO. Heck's plan of getting athletes that play up the middle is a sound one, although I'm afraid middle infielders could be to the Astros what TE's are to the Texans. I guess in the big scheme though, you can never have too many athletes.
Brett Myers is your opening day starter according to Tags. I guess the rotation will go as it did to close out last season... Myers Wandy Happ Norris Mystery guy
[rQUOTEr] Fewer Astros games on FSH As the Astros and Fox Sports Houston approach the end of their long relationship, the network is sticking to the letter of the contract for the 2011 season: 130 games on FSH, nothing more, nothing less — with 24 games on KTXH (Channel 20). That compares to 154 on FSH and seven on Channel 20 last year. Of eight games not scheduled for broadcast, two fall within Fox and ESPN exclusivity windows. The others, said network spokesman Ramon Alvarez, “are primarily early midweek and West Coast games and some Sunday afternoon games in September that tend not to get high viewership.” Day games generally lag in the ratings as well, and 15 of the 24 games on Channel 24 are daytime starts. One consolation for Astros fans: All games on FSH and Channel 20 will air in HDTV. Bill Brown will return for his 25th season with the Astros, joined by analyst Jim Deshaies and reporters Greg Lucas, Bart Enis and Patti Smith and pregame and postgame host Kevin Eschenfelder. FSH will continue to carry Rangers games in Houston after the Astros and Rockets decamp for Comcast SportsNet Houston in 2012. So it’s no coincidence that the network will carry more Rangers games in Houston this fall — 48 of FSH, up from 32 a year ago, and 75 to 80 FSH Plus (Comcast channel 110). [/rQUOTEr]
No misconception here. If you look at historical data 1st round picks succeed at a much higher rate than 2 or 3rd, and later round picks. There is a higher failure rate than other sports, but it's not a crapshoot. I'm sorry i misspoke. The astros are 26th not 22nd in BA rankings. The Brewers are 30. The astros have done okay recently. But to say that's it outstanding is a pretty far reach. There is very little depth in the system and very few who have realistic hopes for top level major league talent. KC was #24 in 2008 and now they have one of the best systems in recent major league history. Obviously they are an outlier, but if you look at some of the smarter small markets clubs like the Tampa Bay, Kansas City and even Pittsburgh (obv under current management), and compare how they've drafted recently compared to Houston and you'll see a big difference. The draft is one of the few places small and mid market teams can make up the talent gap cheaply (since all draftees sign at below market rates). Unfortunately the astros haven't taken advantage of that opportunity and now they're paying the price. And maybe thats more on Drayton than Heck. I guess at least they are now signing draftees which represents a big improvement from the previous regime. But that's such a low standard. Heck has averaged 2 first round draft picks each year since he's come on board. In two months it will be his 4th draft. How long before he is accountable for the system's successes and failures? If not now in his 4th draft, 10 years? 15 years?
it's technically 6 that we are getting screwed out of, and nobody needs to be planted in front of the tv for all 162 games, but yeah, i agree. sucks not having the option.
The Royals were 17th last season and made a DRAMATIC leap to #1 in one season, very rare but it speaks to the point that a lot of their young talent hadn't reached the higher levels to be noticed. If you dig deeper, the Royals have had a medicore to bad system for quite a while before finally getting it right and now are set so I wouldn't freak out about the Astros just yet. Not saying they will go from 26 to 9 in one year but if JD Martinez continues to hit and Ovando becomes a stud in his first minor league season, Mier regroups and Foltzy has a good A ball season then without even adding this draft class, the Stros could move up nicely in the rankings. Also consider, Vincent Velasquez had TJS and should come backs strong along with guys like Villar and Paredas who are young and raw that you can't quite figure out yet are starting to get noticed too.
Bud Norris and Chris Johnson. That is it for the three drafts before Heck. There are no guys out of high school from before Heck to bolster the minors. There is only one draft with enough time to really judge Heck on and that draft begins with Castro and Lyles. I'm not sold on Heck yet, but I'd say at least 5 drafts since the guys haven't proven him wrong or right yet.
We haven't traded a young star player like those clubs have. Or had top 5 picks across a number of years. It takes a number of years for high schoolers to be considered top prospects in most cases.
The astros traded Oswalt and Berkman last year for prospects (and picked up most of the tab). Maybe it's unfair just to put it on Heck bc he's had bosses and is probably limited by a set budget, etc. But my question is at what point is the current management accountable for the system? I know they inherited dog**** in 2007, but at what point is it their baby? This is year 4 and it doesn't look appreciably better
