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True Shooting%, eFG%, and PER

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rocketfanatic2, Nov 26, 2010.

  1. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    TS% is a better stat than eFG% in every way.
     
  2. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    As far as what? I don't like the thought of it including FT%.
     
  3. kevC

    kevC Member

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    What's wrong with TS%? It's just a more complete picture?
     
  4. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    Complete picture of what?

    I like eFG% because I can see how players shoot from the field when 3-pointers are taken into account. That's a more important measure in my mind.

    I don't see the need to also include FT%. Those are two separate areas, IMO. Most people on here didn't even know what TS% was until we acquired Kevin Martin and the Rockets PR department flooded us with how elite of a scorer he is. Maybe I'm just sour on the stat because I think people have greatly overrated Kevin Martin because of it.
     
  5. kevC

    kevC Member

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    So you basically don't like it because you it disagrees with your notion of Kevin Martin not being an elite scorer. I don't understand how you can hate on a statistic like TS%. There is no bias built in to overrate players. FT's and FT% should absolutely be reflected in measuring effectiveness on offense. A player who makes a lay-up vs. a player who draws a foul and hits two free throws had the same net effect for an offense. TS% just takes the guess work out of that.
     
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  6. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    TS is almost a perfect efficiency stat, its only shortcoming is that it doesn't break down the source of every FT, but that's hard to keep track of. You're basically saying that you'd rather have a guy who goes 5-10 from the field than a guy who goes 4-9 with 2-2 FTs. I don't understand your reasoning.
     
  7. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    I don't like it because I think FG% and FT% are two different things and should be kept separate. FG% takes into account live-game action with a hand-in-your-face shooting. FT% is when you're all alone at the line. I think it's better for people to evaluate each stat separately versus having a stat that combines them.

    Um, no.. I'm not saying that? Read what I said above. I'm "basically saying" it would be better if people looked at eFG% and FT% separately rather then try to combine them into one stat.

    TS% takes into account FG%, 3PT%, and FT%. If there's 10 seconds left and I'm down a point -- give me the guy with the higher eFG% over TS%.
     
    #47 LongTimeFan, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2011
  8. kevC

    kevC Member

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    Why does it matter if one is for live action and one is for "all alone at the line"? All points count the same right? Wasn't it the actions in the "live action" part that lets players to get to the line? Drawing free throws and making them is just as much of a skill as to shooting.
     
  9. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    EFG looks at layups, dunks, breakaways too. If you want an accurate picture of who's the best "shooter" you aren't gonna get it from either stat. There are plenty of situational stats out there that would more suit your needs.

    You're basically denying the fact that a guy could go 0-10 from the field and yet be more effective scoring the ball than a guy who goes 10-20. That IS what you're saying, whether you agree/realize it or not.
     
  10. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    Because you're going to be able to hoist up 17 shots a game no matter what. You're not going to be able to go to the line 10 times a game unless the ref blows the whistle for you each time. Free throws are dependent on the ref blowing the whistle.

    Which is why I say, when the game's on the line, I'll take the guy with the higher eFG% every time.

    I have no idea what you're trying to say. So the guy who went 0-10 went 20/20 on free throws and scored 20 pts just like the guy who went 10-20 scored 20 pts? Yeah, I'll take the guy who was 10-20 then as well.
     
  11. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    Look it's obvious you're just taking about Martin here so I'll just leave the discussion. I thought you were actually talking about the stat itself.
     
  12. kevC

    kevC Member

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    I do not agree with this microcosmic view of plays/players only mattering in the last second of the game. Yes, I agree I would take a player with a higher eFG% for the last play of the game because referees tend to swallow their whistle but that doesn't mean I think TS% is a worthless stat.

    Think of it this way, the team wouldn't even be in a situation to have to tie/win on the last play of the game if they had a bunch of players who have high TS% because they most likely be blowing the other team out. Like they say - the truly great teams don't win close games, they avoid them.
     
  13. kevC

    kevC Member

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    I would too because the guy who went 10-20 had a higher TS% ;)
     
  14. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    Ok fine. How bout 0-10, 20-20 vs 9-18 :)

    But ya, so LTF you're saying that you'd rather have Dwight Howard have the ball down the stretch than Yao Ming? After all, his eFG is astronomical.
     
  15. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    I am? I don't like the stat.. I prefer to look at eFG%. I get that you would prefer TS%, but it doesn't mean either of us is right.

    I never said TS% was a worthless stat, just that I prefer to look at eFG% over it.

    Your team also wouldn't even be in a situation to have to tie/win on the last play if they had a bunch of players who have high eFG%. You can replace the stats and it still works.

    No, I wouldn't. But it also has little to do with Yao's ability to shoot free throws vs. Dwight's. It has to do with Yao being a much better offensive player than Dwight is. Dwight has a high eFG% because everything is around the rim -- most big men have high FG% and TS% because of this. You know that, but you're just trying to make a point.

    Tyson Chandler has a higher TS% than Kevin Martin and I wouldn't want go be going to Tyson down the stretch either.
     
    #55 LongTimeFan, Mar 7, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2011
  16. kevC

    kevC Member

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    But you can say it with more confidence if you are using TS% because it takes more into account.
     
  17. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    Ok let's put it another way, do you think it's more accurate to say that Martin is the 8th best scorer or the 91st best scorer in the league?

    Also would you rather go to Anthony or Martin down the stretch?
     
  18. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    a) Where are you getting 91st? Is that his eFG% ranking? The obvious answer is to look at PPG if you're asking about best scorer. Martin is 10th right now.

    b) if you're asking if I'd go to Kevin Martin or Carmelo Anthony down the stretch, I hope the question is rhetorical.
     
  19. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    I just said "scorer" because that's what I associate with FG% stats. You can substitute whatever word you want, maybe most efficient? Best shooter? Whatever, the language doesn't matter. The point is that TS% is more accurate because Martin isn't the 90th best <insert term here>, he's much closer to 10th.

    Also, Martin is much higher in eFG% than Anthony.
     
  20. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Member

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    If law school has taught me anything, it is that the language absolutely does matter. :p

    And if TS% was more accurate, shouldn't Tyson Chandler, Chauncey Billups, Aaron Affalo, etc. be dropping 20 a night?

    In other words, TS% is far from the end-all stat to find the best scorers or shooters. Know the stats, then watch the players in live game situations -- only way you'll be able to come up with a true conclusion of their worth.

    The only thing your Martin-Carmelo comparison proved is why we have humans and not computers as general managers. Stats aren't the tell-all and I don't rely on a singular stat to make a judgment on a player.

    You won't find many people arguing to give the ball to Kevin Martin over Carmelo Anthony -- and if you do find them, they're probably Rocket fans.
     

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