Yea, It's a two way race between social network and king's speech. . .The edge seems to be with what you said.
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I was reading this one thread on clutchfans called "2011 83rd Academy Awards" and I think they mentioned who won a couple times.
It also makes it seem even dumber when they nominate 10 pictures now... when really you can tell by the best director nominees what the true best pictures are. With all due resepct to Inception, the best 5 pictures this year were the ones also nominated for best director: Black Swan Social Network The Fighter Kings Speech True Grit