As we know, the Rockets aren't very good this year. By "aren't very good", I mean we are a mediocre team that likely will miss the playoffs. But one thing optimists would point to is that we are a relatively young team (and, moreover, we don't have many bad contracts -- but that's a topic for another thread). So, I wanted to compare where the Rockets stand based on two dimensions -- winning and age. For winning, I'll consider B-R.com's projected wins, which currently has us winning 40 games this season. I like this measure, because it captures what we've done and what we might be expected to do the rest of the way based on the schedule. For age, I'll start off by considering average age, weighted by minutes played. Here are the results: <table><tr><td> </td><td> Tm Age-min Wins RTG 1 OKC 23.6 51.1 +20.7 2 CHI 26.5 56.8 +16.6 3 SAS 29.0 64.2 +15.7 4 MIA 29.0 59.7 +11.2 5 MEM 24.8 44.1 +9.7 6 PHI 24.7 42.7 +8.7 7 NYK 24.5 41.9 +8.4 8 ORL 27.6 52.3 +8.3 9 NOH 26.4 47.5 +7.7 10 BOS 29.8 58.8 +7.5 11 POR 26.7 44.9 +4.0 12 DEN 27.6 46.8 +2.8 13 LAL 30.2 55.4 +2.6 14 ATL 27.6 46.5 +2.5 15 DAL 31.1 56.5 +0.8 16 GSW 25.2 36.1 +0.4 17 UTA 27.3 42.7 -0.1 18 IND 26.2 38.5 -0.7 <font style="background:yellow;color:black">19 HOU 27.1 40.4 -1.7</font> 20 LAC 24.5 30.4 -3.1 21 MIL 26.7 34.1 -6.8 22 CHA 27.4 36 -7.1 23 NJN 24.4 25.4 -7.8 24 TOR 24.6 24.1 -9.7 25 PHO 30.1 41 -11.4 26 MIN 24.1 19.9 -12.0 27 WAS 25.1 23.5 -12.1 28 SAC 24.8 22.1 -12.2 29 DET 27.5 30.1 -13.4 30 CLE 28.3 16.8 -29.6 </td></tr></table> League wide, the tendency is for young teams to play poorly and for older teams to play very well (for obvious reasons). So, based on our age and nothing else, how many wins might we expect? The gap between our wins and the expected wins is what is shown in the far right column (RTG). By this metric, we are 19th. Discouraging. Then I thought that maybe looking at age weighted by minutes played isn't quite what I want. Teams that play a lot of young players but are winning because of their veterans are perhaps getting too much credit for "winning with youth". Similarly, teams that play a lot of old guys but are winning with young players maybe aren't getting enough credit. So, here's a similar chart except now I'm using average age weighted by win shares: <table><tr><td></td><td> Tm Age-ws Wins RTG 1 OKC 23.0 51.1 +21.8 2 CHI 26.2 56.8 +17.5 3 SAS 29.2 64.2 +15.2 4 MIA 28.4 59.7 +13.2 5 ORL 27.0 52.3 +10.4 6 MEM 25.5 44.1 +7.1 7 NYK 24.8 41.9 +6.9 8 NOH 26.6 47.5 +6.8 9 PHI 25.2 42.7 +6.3 10 ATL 26.9 46.5 +4.9 11 BOS 30.8 58.8 +4.8 12 LAL 30.1 55.4 +3.8 13 POR 26.9 44.9 +3.2 14 DEN 27.8 46.8 +2.3 15 UTA 26.6 42.7 +2.0 16 DAL 31.0 56.5 +1.9 17 GSW 24.8 36.1 +1.3 18 LAC 23.7 30.4 -1.1 19 IND 26.4 38.5 -1.4 <font style="background:yellow;color:black">20 HOU 27.5 40.4 -3.1</font> 21 CHA 26.8 36 -5.3 22 MIL 26.7 34.1 -7.0 23 NJN 24.2 25.4 -7.6 24 TOR 24.4 24.1 -9.6 25 DET 26.8 30.1 -11.3 26 MIN 23.7 19.9 -11.6 27 PHO 30.7 41 -12.8 28 WAS 25.4 23.5 -13.2 29 SAC 26.1 22.1 -16.9 30 CLE 28.0 16.8 -28.2 </td></tr></table> Now we dropped to 20th. So, what are we? We're a mediocre team, that's also middle-of-the-pack age-wise in terms of where the contributions are coming from. Yes, we have a lot of young players, but outside of Kyle Lowry those players have not been major pieces of whatever success we've had this year. This is a concern. Its imperative that these young guys (Lee, Budinger, Hill, Patterson, Dragic, Williams, Thabeet) make their mark starting tonight. Not so much because of this season (we're not going anywhere this year), but rather because the future of the Rockets over the next couple years are at stake.
Very informative post I do believe this has to do with Adelman sticking with his Veterans over his youngsters in most situations. We have a great "farm system" (for lack of better terms I can think of right now) but we are not farming them.
Well if anything this post should shoot down that optimism. In the first set of stats there are only 12 teams older than us and in the 2nd there are only 10 older than us. Kind of disappointing...
Yes. We are "young" in that we have a lot of young players. But more importantly, those young players aren't key contributors to our success. That needs to change.
Good post, durvasa. It seems the data reflects what Morey has said a few times: One main reason why this team has not done as well as we want is that many of the younger guys have not stepped up. As such, even though we have young guys on the roster, they have not beaten out the older guys for their minutes or contributed to wins as much (which the win share number is supposed to measure). In tweet a couple weeks ago, Morey talked about how the starting 5 have had a very good +/- number this season. On the other hand, the bench guys have really struggled. Whenever, say, Jordan Hill and Aaron Brooks comes into the game, I got the feeling that the Rockets are going to lose their lead or get deeper into a hole (and it turns out to be true more often than not). Budinger, too, struggled early, though he's kind of recovered more or less during the last couple months. Patterson, on the other hand, has been solid as a rookie, but he hasn't played as many minutes due to Adelman using Hill and Miller instead (IMO, he should have taken Hill's minutes much earlier). Lee, too, perhaps should have found more minutes, especially those wasted playing Aaron Brooks at the SG. Anyhow, I hope the young guys take the minutes freed up by the Battier and Brooks trades and step up their game. I have more hope for some of them (Patterson, for one) than for others (Hill), but they need to stop acting like understudies and take control of their career.
I'm sure if you did this last year, the numbers would be a hell of a lot better with Landry and Brooks sharing the load. While this year, there does seem to be a "win now" mentality where Scola and Martin gets the heaviest usage, and Hayes play a major role on the team. In the end, this year's unfortunately a lost year. Next year should be full rebuilding mode unless a miracle happens in the offseason. Personally, I'd just limit Martin/Scola to 20-25mpg, and play the youngsters. This saves them from serious wear and tear, and develop young guys at the same time.