Some might find this an interesting read about June SPY options. SPY Option Strike Clusters for Friday Expiration
Schiff gets on my nerves because he's so smug now. He's been touting gold and foreign stocks for a while now. I think his investment philosophies for the past few years revolve around a weakening dollar and buying gold. He still is against buying US stocks even through the recent 3500-4000 or so point climb in the Dow. He seems tame in those clips compared to his attitude recently now that he's been proven right. He's a guest on CNBC often and along with Nouriel Roubini is usually brought on to deflate any "bullish sentiments" that dare arise. :grin:
Proven right? Ha. Yeah, I'm really kicking myself for not tollowing his warnings of imminent short-term hyperinflation two years ago. Oh and decoupling! Yeah now there's another good one - yep, overseas markets are totally decoupled. If by decoupled, you mean "fall further faster". Oh and he's also been really bullish on the euro - any comment necessary? A self-serving takedown with an account statement of his - which kind of resembels one of mine: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html
Out of all Longs. Adding to Shorts. If we sell off next week, I will scalp these shorts if ES and NQ fall off around the same amount. If NQ is relatively weaker, I will hold on to all shorts and sell more at any bounce. EDIT: ES hit a premarket high of 1117.5 today. Close enough to my 1120 target.
Anyone have any opinions on Net Flix (NFLX)? Would we be at the head of a head-n-shoulders pattern for this stock?
No opinion on the specific stock. But just that it is way too early to be speculating on a H&S pattern. With that line of logic, anything making higher highs would be a potential Head and Shoulder. You would be carried out shorted all those. With that said, when looking for a short(or long for that matter), try to find relative strength/weakness. For example, if two 100 dollar stocks start to sell off, one to 50 and one to 10, and you are looking to pick a bottom, which one would you buy? The answer for me is the $50 one. "Cheap" and "expensive" should not be part of a trader's vocabulary. Only "strong" and "weak". So for your particular case, NFLX is one of the absolute strongest stocks out there. Now I understand the logic that the stocks that go up the most may fall the hardest in a significant selloff. But for now, before we have started to selloff, I would rather look for stocks actually giving me a reason to short- relative weakness- Steel, homebuilders, retailers, Ags, financials.
So, like a year and a half ago, I had dropped out of law school, had saved up about $6,000 cash from my job, and thought "Damn, LVS at around $2 is a great deal. I should drop $1,000 on this." My logic was "people love gambling, if this stock doesn't come back up, America has much bigger problems." Having never invested, I was too scared to drop that money. I came back to law school, am about to graduate, but am kicking myself big time now that LVS is above $26. How big of a r****d am I?
On technical trades like this, how do you decide if you were wrong? For example, is there a particular level in the S&P (1121, 1130, etc) where you say "OK, my thesis was wrong, time to close out my positions at a loss"? Or is it just more of feel thing?
Ok, so before I answer your question, I am going to have to go on a little rant. Bear with me, and I will eventually get to the point. I've gotten plenty of questions in this thread and the TA thread. Some on a particular stock, some on a particular trade, some just for information. Take no offense, as I don't mind answering any of them. But at the end of the day, people want tips. "What do you think about this stock?" "Where do you think the market is going?" And guess what, I can give tips. I can pull tips out of my *** like its nothing. And they will be damn good tips too. But in the end, tips will do you ZERO good. You might take the tip and make a little here and there, but you will be right back where you started afterwards. I am making this point because finally. Finally. Someone has asked the right question. A question about the PROCESS. Only learning the process of generating a trade, analyzing a trade, and executing a trade will it ever IMPROVE you as a trader, instead of making a quick buck. So for that, I thank you Major. I will try my best to answer your question thoroughly, but honestly the learning process is, well, a process too. And it will take time. When trading technically, a plan is paramount. That includes the entry, the trade management, and the exit. Whether you are proved to be right or wrong, you will need an exit plan for both, BEFORE you get in. Since we are trading with technicals, we need to generate technical levels. How to do this will be a separate discussion- part of the learning process. The whole point in using these levels is so that they can provide you an edge, instead of relying on "feel". Because you cannot plan or anticipate for a "feel", which means you will have to make decisions on the fly, prone to errors and emotion. Instead, use these levels to give you an idea of whether you are right or wrong. So for our particular case, 1120 was a good level to initiate a short. This number was generated from a number of factors- not for this post, but I can explain if asked. 1140-50 is a crucial resistence. This number is also generated by a number of technical factors. This will be my exit if I am wrong. This should answer your question, but the next line of reasoning is where/how these numbers are generated? Which gets to the crux of technical trading. No way can I teach that in one post. I am only able to explain things very simply here. But I am very willing to take the time to start the learning process for you, and others. But it can't be just for one person. No offense, but it just won't be worth the effort. Mango and I have discussed this before in private, and we would gladly support this process as long as there are a few, lets say 10, that are genuinely interested. This is my profession and my love, and I am damn good at it. At the same time it is a very misunderstood field. Yet nearly everyone is somehow effected by the markets. It only makes sense for people to want to learn, and I would gladly contribute to earn my keep on a site I love. What dumbfounds me is how little interest this process generates. I've talked a big game here and in the past, so to put my money where my mouth is, I've nearly posted every one of my major trades in the past 3 months. Not the day after. Not the week after. But the day OF, usually within hours of my entry. To look back on those posts and those dates, I find it hard to believe that more people aren't asking "How the heck is he doing it?!" And that comes back to the process. So for that thanks again for the good question.
I don't ever plan on trading based on technicals only, but I would definitely read everything you post and are willing to teach about it to incorporate in my approach to investing, and just for general education on the market. I actually read a lot of the thread you started last year, so count me in.
^^ I'm nowhere near the investor some of the ppl here are, but previously I pretty much just dismissed the effectiveness Technical Analysis (LOL CHARTS). I'm planning to pick up a couple of books and learn about how TA is applied to get a better perspective on trading/investing. After all, it's not very wise to dismiss something that I do not fully understand. So please don't let a couple of ignorant posters prevent you from sharing your knowledge to the rest of us that read this thread everyday.
