I took half my position off at 1107. I got my face ripped off today with the remaining. I cashed out my long VXX position, so I have no more protection. I established a new long position when we were 30 pts down S&P (down 39 today). It was hard as hell to pull the frackin trigger today. Didn't think we would close on the lows. I think the price action today was way overdone. The jobs report today was indeed bearish. But it gives the Fed carte blanche to put the printing press in overdrive. Fighting the Fed is always a losing prop bet. Im looking at oil right now. Looks like a good entry point. Any thoughts Robbie, Cxxby, Mango etc....
You should probably include pippendagimp in that group as well, he seems well informed in what this game is truely about. As for my thoughts, a good trader should always have a working hypothesis of the market mapped out before hand. Scenarios A, B, C etc. He then generates a plan of action according to each scenario. When things are playing out according to one of these, all he has to do is execute, with total emotional detachment. This should not be hard, since it was all planned out beforehand. This is not predicting the future, but simply being prepared. And if things are not playing out according to any scenarios, reevaluate. This was my working hypothesis, as posted here on 5/21: So for today/yesterday, I have no thoughts on the matter, just execution. The 1110 target to exit all longs came from the gap of 5/20. It is also right around 1106, which is the 50% Fib retracement of the last leg down. In overnight trading we got up to a high of 1108, with the last of my long position exited at 1104 this morning. I also put on a minimum short position from the same price. Although today's action was extremely ugly(or beautiful depending on your perspective), I would not say breaking lower is a guarantee. I still have plenty of offers to short leading up to 1120-40 so I am hoping for a pop. If we do break lower, a Fib extension measures to a quick 970ish. Which would be unfortunate for me, not being able to truely load up at higher prices. However, if it does play out like this, I expect a more prolonged rally from 970. A summer rally lasting until maybe late August(just speculating here). With a price target of around 1100, not expecting 1120-40 this time. This would then be truely the PRIME time to load up a short for a end of year collapse. With how this "pullback" has been playing out, I am looking more and more for a retest of the magical 666 rather than just a retracement to 940.
BTW I realize that some of this stuff may sound like a foreign language to some folks. As a professional trader I am highly technical oriented. Rest assured I am not just pulling these numbers/price targets out of my ***. In fact a while back I started a thread here on Technical Analysis, with a goal of teaching, and generating conversation. I posted numerous trade setups, walking through each from beginning(entry) to end(exit). If you are interested in some of the technique you can look it up on search. I believe the last trade setup that I posted, and updated numerous times, was a screaming buy in gold at around 940-60. Turned out ok. In the end, the thread just generated too little interest to continue. My point in bringing up all this is that this stuff simply works. I am not consistently shorting tops and buying bottoms and calling all these huge moves because I am smarter than you, or that I have a crystal ball. I am simply putting in the work, after years of learning and experience. The worst thing you can possibly do for yourselves is to call yourself an "investor" and think buying and holding, or picking hot stocks all your life is all you can do. That is simply complacency, ignorance, and plain lazy. There is a whole other world out there with literally FORTUNES to be made, yet noone seems to be interested. I am not sure why I keep harping on this stuff. Maybe it is just a topic I am passionate about. I get no personal benefit from these rants. Perhaps it is because once upon a time, I was precisely the type of "investor" that I now lament. Scouring for the next hot pick or guru. Buying and holding until it all crashed down on me. I was lucky enough to experience blowing out an account numerous times at a young age. A young enough age that I could bounce back. Since then I've learned enough from those mistakes to eventually turn myself into a successful trader. Now I am writing about it so that you don't make those same mistakes. Mistakes that you may not be able to afford or bounce back from. We are at a crucial juncture in history, for our nation, and the world. It is an extraordinary and dangerous time. Yet equally exciting, with limitless possibilities and opportunities. Seize them.
The Market had a visible shift in Mid April when: 1. Goldman Sachs came under increased scrutiny. 2. Major large cap stocks like Google, Microsoft, Intel etc spiked going into earnings reports and faltered afterward. For the moment, things have shifted and being switched into a defensive posture in regards to what is traded and position size is the prudet thing to do. The <i>Easy Money</i> for Longs from March 2009 - April 2010 that had been made by just being in the Market is gone for a while. There are some discussions across the Internet about the Presidential Cycle and the stock market. Here is one from Late April: The Presidential Cycle: 2nd Year Performance The <i>Numbers</i> to calmly work things out in Europe look extremely poor and there are likely some significant <i>Haircuts</i> (or worse) coming. The aftermath will be a Recession and perhaps even a Depression in some parts of Europe. Governments would like to ease up on the Quantative Easing and other Liquidity actions, but the Markets look fragile. I pulled these Beta numbers a few weeks ago, so there will be some minor changes since then. Code: Citigroup 2.93 Prudential Financial 2.80 Ford Motor 2.72 Bank of America 2.60 Dow Chemical 2.49 American Express 2.25 MetLife 2.00 AFLAC 1.90 Freeport-McMoran 1.86 Simon Property Group 1.85 Caterpillar 1.84 eBay 1.74 General Electric 1.68 Deere 1.63 Apple 1.52 Dupont 1.49 Halliburton 1.43 Wells Fargo 1.41 Goldman Sachs 1.40 Dell 1.34 Corning 1.33 PNC Financial Services 1.33 Honeywell International 1.32 Time Warner 1.32 Boeing 1.31 Morgan Stanley 1.29 General Dynamics 1.25 Disney 1.23 FedEx 1.20 Union Pacific 1.20 Cisco Systems 1.18 Emerson Electric 1.17 Apache 1.16 JPMorgan Chase 1.16 Schlumberger 1.15 ConocoPhillips 1.13 Intel 1.13 Devon Energy 1.10 Lockheed Martin 1.10 WellPoint 1.10 Google 1.07 Target 1.07 Anadarko Petroleum 1.05 Occidental Petroleum 1.04 UnitedHealth Group 1.03 Texas Instruments 1.02 Lowe's Cos. 1.01 U.S. Bancorp 1.01 United Technologies 1.01 Express Scripts 1.00 Amazon 0.98 EMC 0.98 Hewlett Packard 0.98 EOG Resources 0.96 Microsoft 0.93 Nike 0.93 Oracle 0.91 Comcast 0.89 DirecTV Group 0.89 Praxair 0.89 QUALCOMM 0.86 Walgreen 0.84 Philip Morris 0.83 United Parcel Service 0.81 Lilly (Eli) 0.80 Medtronic 0.80 3M 0.78 Merck MRK 0.78 Costco Wholesale 0.77 Visa 0.77 XTO Energy 0.76 IBM 0.69 Bristol-Myers Squibb 0.68 Home Depot 0.68 AT&T 0.67 Pfizer 0.67 Bank of New York Mellon 0.65 CVS/Caremark 0.65 Verizon Communications 0.62 Johnson & Johnson 0.60 Medco Health Solutions 0.60 Monsanto 0.60 Chevron 0.59 Coca-Cola 0.59 Kraft Foods 0.59 Travelers 0.59 PepsiCo 0.58 Dominion Resources 0.58 Exelon 0.57 Berkshire Hathaway 0.56 McDonalds 0.54 Procter & Gamble 0.54 Colgate-Palmolive 0.50 Kimberly-Clark 0.47 Celgene 0.40 Altria 0.38 Southern 0.36 Amgen 0.35 Baxter 0.33 ExxonMobil 0.33 Gilead Sciences 0.31 General Mills 0.28 Wal Mart 0.25 Abbott Labs 0.23 The low Beta names like WMT, XOM, ABT are boring, but are safer havens for the moment than some of the high Beta <i>FIRE</i> names and similar if one has the urge - requirement to be in the Market. My Technical Analysis skills are very pedestrian, so I won't make any bold predictions. A <i>Happy</i> scenario would be a Trading Range of 1040 - 1160 (S&P 500) until at least the Fall. A dour situation would be a scenario similar to Fall 2008 that could take some of the major names down quite a bit from current levels. Perhaps: AAPL under 200 GS near 100 AMZN near 100 etc <i>Value</i> would no longer be a consideration if raising Cash becomes the #1 priority.
Well I think it's pretty ignorant to say that buying and holding is the "worst thing you can possibly do" People have different risk aversions. Not everyone wants to or has the time to learn technical trading, and keep up with the market all day. You seem to have made this your career. I run multiple businesses, so I just don't have the time to dedicate for trading on a daily basis. Just because it works for you, doesn't mean there are plenty other technical traders out there experiencing the same success you are. There will always be investors who do well, and technical traders that do well. And there will always be people in both groups who don't. If you're good at it and comfortable with it, then stick with it.
A friend asked me last week about the prospects for the offshore drilling industry and here is what I sent him. There are going to be more restrictions on offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico whenever it resumes. Potential drilling off the Atlantic coast that was announced a few months ago is going to become even more over the horizon. Here is a short writeup about a bump in insurance premiums for offshore drilling. Insurers bump up rig premiums Even with the higher rates, insurance companies will be all over the oil companies and drillers about doing things and all involved will cautious. Increased time spent drilling and higher insurance costs should offset any rate cutting by drilling companies looking for work. This writeup suggests some correlation between the OSX index and the number of operating rigs. Today's Trends: Could U.S. Lose 200 Rigs by the End of Summer? There are struggles with drilling beyond the Gulf of Mexico. Norwegian oil company struggles to normalize pressure at oil rig There is a massive offshore field near Brazil that will very likely continue forward and it is in water that is deeper than the roughly 5,000 ft than the BP well. From a few months ago: Brazil's Petrobras confirms Tupi at 5-8 bln barrels From a few years ago: Brazil's Tupi seen a bonanza for oil service companies Very recently and they are in water roughly 1000 ft deeper than the BP well SBM lines up Brazil floater A project in Canadian waters. BP Disaster: Canada’s deepwater well faces scrutiny A nice summary from 14 months ago on some of the deepwater drillers. Safe Harbor in Deep Water There has been several mentions on the local (Houston) news about the impact of the BP spill on Houston and the price of crude - gasoline. Gulf oil crisis could bring higher gas prices
What I mean is thinking that buying and holding is the only thing to do, without any alternative, is the worst thing you can do. Not that it is necessarily that bad on its own, as long as your timing is based on something that makes sense, as opposed to blind faith.
Yeah you are absolutely right. I like bumping my past calls and bragging about how right I am. And then telling people how simple it is, as long as they are open minded and willing to learn. Too bad some people are too stubborn or stupid to actually want to make some money, even when finally someone is willing to teach them how. Too busy trying to shoot down those actually trying to contribute. Next time you think I am trying to tell you how much smarter I am than you, realize that I am. Because I shorted 1220 and bought 1040. Yet instead of asking me how and why I did it, you come up with smartass comments like this that neither contribute to the board or your wallet.
Thank you for your thoughts and contribution. In the end it should not be about making "predictions", even for the most ardent of technical analysts. It is simply about having a plan, as opposed to making decisions on the fly. Especially for those with significant capital at stake, making real time decisions without preparation can easily lead to emotion-laced misjudgments.
Wow that's a pretty harsh statement. Cxxby/Mango/Robbie has saved/made me money ever since I started posting in this forum. It's not like he's bragging, he's just trying to help us out in trading. I may not agree with everything everyone says in this FORUM, but I respect their opinions. At the end of the day, we are all in the same boat. At that is trying to make a dollar out of fifteen cents. Instead of beating the man up, listen to him and incorporate his wisdom into your trading system.
It's petty for randoms to snipe people who actually contribute and offer something. Maybe this topic is too much for the Real Shadys out there.
good to hear you took some off. Always gotta remember to be tighter with the profit takin when you are fighting the trend. I got no opinion on oil but the market and euro still seem to want to go lower. Euro seems like it's on a trek to 1.16 so weak euro = weak mkt and commodities. Maybe look to get long if the euro pukes one day
