Why was there no one itching to get in, short, when I practically handed out the 1170-80 level, almost pleading for a taker? Not necessarily directed at you in particular, just the general sentiment of the board.
how come the FAT finger theory never shows up on big rally days? why does cnbc only bring it out for the meltdowns :grin:
CXbby, since the S & P didn't hold up at the 1110 support level, what are the next support levels that you can see? I'm a noob with technicals but I don't see any decent support until 930 or 940 range.
Possible reversal in markets today. Long small FOR A TRADE. Must take profits/reverse short above 1120-30.
I think the bottom will be 956 on the S&P. This is what we get for this free money, engineered rally. These are just our chickens coming home to roost. 950 will put us back to the June highs of last year. Maybe, next time we should take our lumps like big boys!
Let me rephrase, because I don't want to put anyone's mind in a box. I am Long for a short term trade. I may be wrong and this could turn into a long term bottom, or one day event, but it's just not the way I see it, for now. With that said, we are reversing today above the Feb. 5th lows, so technically this is higher lows, and that the uptrend has not been broken. However my longer term views prevents this from being anything more than a quick trade for me. I am looking to take a little profit around 1100 on the E-minis, and will sell most out by 1110. Which is also the minimum price that I am looking to re-short. More likely I will see if it can get up to the 1140s before getting in. These prices are obviously all flexible depending on price action. If we trade above 1175 then it is a good idea to stop looking for shorts. For the Short it is a longer term view/trade that the cyclical bull is over for now, and either a continuation of a secular bear will resume, or at least a large retracement. The trade will be confirmed on a break of the Feb 5 lows, but my entry will be the top of this potential rally if today holds. A price target will be a 50% Fib retracement from the 3/06/09 low, which comes out to around 930-40. Right around the June 09 highs as Aces pointed out above. This could take months to play out, if it does. 863 could also be an area of interest as the 61.8% retracement. I am also open to a rally for the next month to ~1150 before reversing, setting up a gigantic head and shoulder top. And the final scenario is of course higher highs, resuming the bull market, which to me is the least likely.
For a "noob" at technicals, great job spotting 930-40 as key support. Before that we have the Feb 5th lows which is also key. Breaking them would signal lower highs and lower lows- a rudimentary technical view, but highly effective in determining longer term trend.
I see us going to 1107 S&P in the next day or so (Mon and/or Tues). Then the next level will be 1124 S&P (maybe Weds). Ultimately, I see us hitting that 956 level fairly soon (maybe as soon as next week). Once we hit the 1107 and 1124 level and back away from it, I can see a rather drastic pullback to 956. At 1120 S&P is where I would but a gangload of puts. We may get up to 1150, like Cxxby stated. But, I will let you know once we hit those 1107 and 1124 levels.
well i guess you might as well load up on some vix. put/call ratios are already at some pretty extreme levels right now and earnings aren't bad. i can't see any scenario that causes that kind of a drop other than massive margin calls...but the street isn't as levered as it used to be. also, those puts are insanely expensive right now. volatility on the spy is just stupid right now. i mean front month 60 puts have a freakin bid on them. that skew is just insane. we have much more clarity than the prior crash and i think the only thing that would make us crash would be if the fed and ecb backed away from their money printing programs....which they won't. well now that i look at the ATM puts on the spy they actually look pretty cheap. you could do some sort of ratio put spread to minimize your cost basis for the puts since the skew is so r****ded. you could sell 2 of the 94's for 1.10 each and buy 1 109 for 4.25. would be a net debit of 2.05 and give you a range of 106.95-81.05 to make money if you held to expiration. or you could just do a straight up put spread and forget the ratio stuff for 3.15 if you use the 94's and 109's. anyhow....just putting that example out there to show how stupid the skew is on the spy and stuff.
Very bearish day today. I think we put in a near-term top at 1079 S&P. I think the next stop on the elevator to the ground floor is ~1038 (1040 is my target). Any thoughts?
The Financial sector has been under pressure since Mid April because of: 1. Fears of the troubles with GS spreading to other firms. 2. Possible negative impact of haircuts and/or similar happening with European assests. 3. Financial reform regulation under consideration in Congress. The Energy Sector has been under pressure because of: 1. Lower oil prices because some Longs likely liquidated because of some combinations of Stops and Margin Calls. 2. Concerns about a recession - depression in Europe contracting demand for crude. 3. Plentiful supplies of Natural Gas weakening demand for the business lines of OIH types of companies. 4. Unceretain business environment for offshore drilling which adds to the misery in the OIH types of companies. Tech doesn't look that bad and GOOG might finally be stabilizing at 25% off of its 52 week highs. Until at least one of the financials or energy sector can put in a solid bottom and move up, Bounces are likely to be weak for a while. No idea how much lower to go on the Downside.
All the technicals have looked pretty horrific so just sitting on my shorts for now....probably close most of them out within the first 10 minutes or so tomorrow if they don't prop up the futures overnight :grin:
Jeezums! Futures look quite horrific. If the 1040 S&P level fails we will be at 950 by the end the week.
