Will Lowry start before the end of the season?

You certainly do not mince words, but any objective observer would have to agree with you irt to Yao.

Our window to win a championship with Yao actually closed years ago (remember that Yao trash talking to Kaman year?), in restrospect.

Sad, because Yao was truly a gifted player.

 

No, that is not entirely the case at all. While there is some truth to it, the fact is that contrary to popular belief, Brooks isn't anything close to a ballhog or ball dominator. He is actually nearly the polar opposite. People are confusing and overlapping his bad decision-making/shot selection with being a ballhog.

More often than not, Brooks brings the ball up the court and almost immediately passes it to one of the bigs in the high post or one of the wings in the corner then cuts off the ball.

If you want to be accurate, ball dominators are PGs like Nash and Paul. They are very good at it though and their offenses are constructed around them.

Adelman's prototypical offense is completely different from the type that Phoenix and New Orleans run. It is all about ball movement and player movement and reading and reacting to the defense. Theoretically, every player has an equal chance of scoring on each possession most of the time. I understand that is not how it works all the time because we don't yet have the personnel to execute a read and react offense as well as Adelman would like. A lot of plays end up in iso situations because ALL 5 GUYS are not typical Adelman players at this point. Morey is slowly bringing in those types of players and getting away from the " everybody play off a physically declining McGrady, statue-on-the perimeter offense" we've been running for years.

The last ball dominating PG I can recall Adelman having was Jason Williams and that didn't end well.

Again, Brooks is not even an average playmaking PG. You can't construct a Hornets or Suns type offense around him, obviously. But Adelman doesn't try to run offenses like those teams. I'm not saying he wouldn't if he had a Nash or Paul but even then, he'd tweak it somewhere closer to his read and react type offense. That is his general offensive philosophy before considering the players he has available to him. And, apparently, Morey believes in Adelman and his system enough to both hire him and extend him. Les makes the ultimate decisions but I guarantee you Morey has to give his approval when it comes to most personnel related decisions, including those related to coaches.

So, the reason you see Brooks with fluctuating assist numbers isn't as simple as "he iz the suck at the pass." While there is truth to that, it goes well beyond that. The way the starting 5 run the halfcourt offense involves Brooks usually making a quick first pass when he brings the ball over the line. Late in halves, there are more iso plays but almost every team in the league goes toward iso play in those situations when defenses tighten up and teams are attentive to the clock situation.

 

Thnx for a most illuminating post. This is what makes Clutch the best bb board.

You make it sound as if Brooks's play as a pg is more a product of RA system rather than his own shortcomings (admittedly very much overshadowed by his positives) as a pg.

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

 

His current play at the PG spot is a bit of both. He would never be a 15/10 guy in a system designed around him making all the decisions a la Nash or Paul. The system he is in however does not require him to be that kind of a PG and thus helps hide those flaws. I think he would be a 7 assist kinda guy in a standard system, but would make more mistakes as he would be required to create more. This is almost a perfect system for Brooks to play the point.

 

The window went down to injuries to Yao and Mac (05-06), lack of role players (06-07), injuries to Yao and Rafer(07-08), and injuries to Yao, Mac, and then Deke (08-09).

The Rockets can still win a chip with him as their starting center. But i dont think he'll be playing 30+ minutes for them if this is the case. I am hopeful that the team can do with Yao what the Lakers did with Kareem in the mid-late 80s.

 

Mike Bibby is a great example of the effect a typical Rick Adelman offense has on a PG's assist numbers.

Here are his career stats: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bibbymi01.html

In 2001-02, Bibby averaged 5.0 apg (less than Brooks this season), a significant drop-off from his years in Vancouver. That was the season they went the deepest in the playoffs, where he also averaged exactly 5.0 apg.

Here is his game log for that season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bibbymi01/gamelog/2002/

Notice the volatility in his assist numbers. It's a spitting image of Brooks' this season. A spitting image.

In his other years with the Kings, Bibby averaged 5.2, 5.4, 6.8, 5.4 and 4.7 apg with similarly volatile assist numbers. Lots and lots of games with 2, 3 and 4 assists mixed in with some bigger assist games.

Now, people will argue that he had all those great passing bigs that allowed Rick to run his typical ball movement, player movement read-and-react offenses.

That is absolutely correct.

It is also correct that Adelman was just extended as our coach and there is a very real possibility that Adelman will still be here post-Yao. Expect Morey to contine to bring in pieces, including bigs, that fit Adelman's system. Even in a best-case scenario, Yao has probably 3 years of high level ball left in him. Again, that is the best-case scenario. It could be a lot worse as in Yao gets injured again next season and is done for good. I don't want that to be the case but it's undeniable that it's a real possibility given all the factors. I understand the improvements in the medical field and the Big Z argument, etc... That still doesn't change the fact that Yao is big, injury prone and by no means young any more.

The basic point is that the Rockets appear to be building around a Rick Adelman offense given... well, given that he's our head coach and that he was just extended and that we are bringing in players like Martin, Brooks, Lowry, Ariza, Budinger, etc... all unselfish players (yes, Brooks is unselfish believe it or not... maybe not the best decision-maker but not selfish) who are willing to move and play without the ball and buy into Rick's system. Rick doesn't necessarily want or need a ball dominator that can average 10+ apg by running every play through him.

With or without Brooks, don't expect a PG that consistently averages big assist numbers as long as Adelman is around and Morey continues to bring in players that fit into his offensive philosophy.

 

No, I acknowledged more than once that both Adelman's system and Brooks' weaknesses contribute to the volatile assist numbers. I just focused on how Adelman's system contributed to those numbers since you already stated the other obvious factor, which is Brooks' below average playmaking skills.

 

Maybe posters need to go look up bibby and porter assist numbers under adelman. Bibby avg 8 dimes in vancuver, but drpped to 5 in sac town. Does this mean he regressed as a pg? No, it means adelman doesnt require his pg to dominate the ball and make all the decisions with it. Just like jackson has never had that king of pg either. Their offense is the pg per se. The lakers turned down kidd for bynum mostly on this premise. Now if morey had the chance to get a great pg like paul or williams,adelman would probably adjust his system,Again, we're talking about great,not avg as in lowry's case.

Nash assist went up alot when he played with finishers and dominated the ball. In dallas, dirk nor finley needed nash to get a good shot. For all of his recent accolades nash received latter in his career, the mavs made it to the nba finals with jason terry at pg. When was the last time a top 5 assist pg has made it to the finals? Kidd and his greatness then propelled them to that echelon.

 

Also, Bibby was never considered a great defender or rebounder. He wasn't great at getting to the line, either.

His backup, Bobby Jackson, did all 3 of those things better than him.

Bibby was a better shooter.

 

but

but



Good stuff!

 

I think I'll start linking to the great post above anytime there is new Brookswhine post.

 

I'm not trying to say Brooks can be as good as Bibby or that Lowry isn't better than Jackson. I understand that Lowry is a special player and I wouldn't be shocked to see Brooks traded this summer.

I was initially just trying to tell the entire story when it comes to assists by the PG in Adelman's system. Bibby was, and is, a better playmaker with better court vision than Brooks. I don't know how much Brooks will improve in these areas, either. He may or may not be good enough to play effectively in Adelman's read-and-react system. He may or may not get traded this offseason. Time will tell.

One thing is for sure: There are as many people around here recently who are overly criticizing Brooks and using poor arguments against him as there are those that are giving him too much credit.

 

I'm not talking about just trugoy. There is an ENORMOUS number of posters that talk about assists, assists, assists... and that is who I was addressing, not you. You are a very basketball-smart poster that I actually agree with more often than not.

His defense is a problem, I agree. Tonight it's worse than usual. Playing nearly 48 min last night as part of essentially a 6-man rotation on a team that is already bad defensively, with and without Lowry, makes Brooks go from bad, defensively, to worse.

 

That is exactly what I've been saying in this very thread.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out this summer.

I do think that Brooks very much can be a Jason Terry type based on both his skill set and a comparison of statistics from similar points in their respective careers. Maybe, a Jason Terry lite. Who knows?

When you have good handles, speed and not only a good shot... but a good shot off the dribble with a quick, high release, there will probably be a niche for you in this league.

 

Brooks defense isn't any worse than it was last year when they were top 5 or so. The team has a philosophy of funnelling everything to the middle, but when the one guy in the middle is gone, they don't have enough good individual defenders to change on the fly. Look at battier and his defense this year as well as trevor. It hurts the team defense not having yao double because they replaced his talent with hayes.

Trugoy, how many good individual defenders do Cleveland and orlando have? I've seen you bring up about bad defenders, but when have lewis,carter,nelson ever been called good defenders? What about mo williams and jamison or the 2nd hickson? Guess what? Those teams have been top defensive teams the last couple of years without good defenders. Its about team defense and team concepts. Our pg's used to get killed during the ring years. I'm pretty sure you can pull up the stats cause I'm pretty sure you weren't watching the rockets then, smith and cassell used to give it up or it seemed that way. Talking to kenny a few times, rudy instructed them to go under the gate when playing kevin johnson,tim hardaway,mark price types. This was done to allow hakeem to guard the rim in pnr or just in general. KJ had monster games, but the rockets won. I will contest, with yao on the floor, they also want the pg to go under the gate thus allowing better looks at the basket if it calls for keeping the guy out the paint. What happens to the rockets though is Yao gets in no mans land and the guard gets what they want. This year minus yao they're a better defensive pnr team, but once teams get past that, there is no one at the rim. So now the defense is broken down and the opposing team convert at a higher rate close to the goal.

 

Jason terry was the starting pg on the mavs team that was in the finals. How many finals have your pass first pg's started on?